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Survival analysis: A survey   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
This paper is a survey of statistical methods used to analyze the length of time until a specified event occurs. These models have often been used to analyze the survival times (i.e., time until death) of medical patients, and so the term survival analysis is natural. In criminology, the main application of these models has been to analyze the time until recidivism, but many other applications are possible. The paper summarizes the statistical literature on survival analysis, and describes its applications in criminology. The methods are illustrated by an application to the prediction of time until recidivism for a sample of North Carolina prison releasees.  相似文献   
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Degradation of human DNA extracted from forensic stains is, in most cases, the result of a natural process due to the exposure of the stain samples to the environment. Experiences with degraded DNA from casework samples show that every sample may exhibit different properties in this respect, and that it is difficult to systematically assess the performance of routinely used typing systems for the analysis of degraded DNA samples. Using a batch of artificially degraded DNA with an average fragment size of approx. 200 bp a collaborative exercise was carried out among 38 forensic laboratories from 17 European countries. The results were assessed according to correct allele detection, peak height and balance as well as the occurrence of artefacts. A number of common problems were identified based on these results such as strong peak imbalance in heterozygous genotypes for the larger short tandem repeat (STR) fragments after increased PCR cycle numbers, artefact signals and allelic drop-out. Based on the observations, strategies are discussed to overcome these problems. The strategies include careful balancing of the amount of template DNA and the PCR cycle numbers, the reaction volume and the amount of Taq polymerase. Furthermore, a careful evaluation of the results of the fragment analysis and of automated allele calling is necessary to identify the correct alleles and avoid artefacts.  相似文献   
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Individualizing the Reasonable Person in Criminal Law   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Criminal law commonly requires judges and juries to decide whether defendants acted “reasonably.” Nevertheless, issues of reasonableness fall into two distinct categories: (1) where reasonableness concerns events and states, including risks of which an actor is conscious, that can be justly assessed without regard to the actor’s individual traits, and (2) where reasonableness concerns culpable mental states and emotions that cannot justly be assessed without reference to the actor’s capacities. This distinction is significant because, while the “reasonable person” by which category-1 cases are assessed is a disembodied and impersonal ideal that consists of nothing but the uncompromising values of the jurisdiction, the reasonable person by which category-2 cases are measured must necessarily incorporate some of an actor’s individual traits or risk blaming the blameless. Courts and commentators have thus far approached the task of individualizing or subjectivizing reasonableness in category 2 by trying to determine in advance which individual traits are generally relevant and which are not. I propose an alternative approach that, in addition to applying to negligence and voluntary manslaughter cases alike, derives its content from the social practice of blaming. I propose that a reasonable person in category-2 cases consists of every physical, psychological, and emotional trait an actor possesses, with one exception—the exception being that he possesses proper respect for the values of the people of the state as reflected and incorporated in the statute at hand.
Peter WestenEmail:
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Literatur     
Ohne Zusammenfassung  相似文献   
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A retrospective study was undertaken of all cases of death due to suicidal electrocution in Sydney, Australia between 1996 and 2005. A total of 25 cases were identified with 20 cases (80%) as a result of direct attachment to an electrical outlet and five cases (20%) as a result of immersion in a body of water with an electrical appliance. Twenty of the 25 individuals were men (mean age = 57 years, range 22-90) and five were women (mean age 67, range 53-88). At least 35% of decedents were either currently working or had worked as electricians. Electrical timers had been used in eight (32%) cases, the fuse blown in one case, but the remaining 16 (64%) bodies were "live" on arrival of witnesses or electricity personnel. This study demonstrates the phenomenon of electrical suicide as a regular occurrence in Sydney. We highlight the need for investigators and emergency workers to remain vigilant upon discovery of electrical suicides, due to the fact that most bodies remain electrically active after death.  相似文献   
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