Probabilistic Classification of Age by Third Molar Development: The Use of Soft Evidence

Abstract: This study introduces a method to classify individuals according to an age threshold, given sex and third molars’ dental maturity measured on the Demirjian scale by expressing uncertainty on dental evidence (soft evidence). We introduced a procedure to learn the parameters of the Naïve Bayes model, and we discussed two classification rules. The model was estimated and tested on 559 Italians aged 16–22. Two experts provided the dental evaluations, and the model was estimated for each of them. We evaluated the coherence of the evidence provided by the experts. Some indexes have been proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of the models, emphasizing how the experts’ ability and the technology affect the results. We introduced two benchmarks, one based on the sample distribution per sex and age: in this case, probability of correct classification increases 22% and the proportion of false adults impressively decreases 80.2%; the other benchmark, obtained by simulating hard evidence, shows how the use of soft evidence increases the proportion of correct classification 3.1% and decreases the crucial proportion of false adults about 20%. Similarly, the proportion of false minors decreases about 5.3%.     

Soldiers,Civilians, and Multilateral Humanitarian Intervention

Approval from the United Nations or NATO appears to have become a necessary condition for US humanitarian military intervention. Conventional explanations emphasizing the pull of legitimacy cannot fully account for this given that US policymakers vary considerably in their attachment to multilateralism. This article argues that America's military leaders, who are consistently skeptical about humanitarian intervention and tend to emphasize its costs, play a central role in making multilateral approval necessary. As long as top-ranking generals express strong reservations about intervention and no clear threat to US national security exists, they can veto the use of force. In such circumstances, even heavyweight “humanitarian hawks” among the civilian leadership, who initially may have wanted to bypass multilateral bodies to maximize US freedom of action, can be expected to recognize the need for UN or NATO approval—if only as a means of mollifying the generals by reassuring them about the prospect of sustained multilateral burden sharing. Two case studies drawing on interviews with senior civilian and military officials illustrate and probe the plausibility of the argument.     

Responsive and Responsible? The Role of Parties in Twenty-First Century Politics

This article focuses on a particular aspect dear to theories of democracy in general and theories of representation in particular: the tension between responsiveness and responsibility affecting political parties in modern, liberal democracies. In doing so, it engages with Peter Mair’s intellectual passion for this topic, which he developed over the years and intensively worked on until his premature death in 2011. He argued that this tension became ever more apparent, putting the very functioning and legitimacy of democratic government under great pressure. This contribution goes back in time, to the very beginning of the modern state, and argues that already the nascent parties and party systems were affected by the tension between responsiveness and responsibility. It then offers a synopsis, organised in a series of ‘pictures’ or ‘frames’ of the historical parcours along which this tension has impacted on the development of political parties. The article also presents and summarises the collective effort undertaken by a number of scholars, coming together to honour Peter Mair’s work, to shed further theoretical and empirical light on this fundamental tension.     

Arrhythmogenesis and diagnosis of cardiac sarcoidosis. An immunohistochemical study in a sudden cardiac death

We present an uncommon case of sudden cardiac death in a 34-year-old white woman. She was found lifeless at home by her parents. Three months before death she was recovered at the Emergency Room for chest pain, palpitation and loss of consciousness. Subsequent cardiological evaluation with ECG showed sinusal rhythm, QRS deviation to the left, QS aspect, asymmetric and rounded T waves and slight length of QT. During hospitalization she presented some episodes of supraventricular paroxysmal tachycardia and non-sustained ventricular tachycardia. No echocardiography alterations were found. An anti-arrhythmic treatment was prescribed. Autopsy revealed some fibrotic scarring in the myocardium of left ventricle. The histological examination of the heart revealed diffuse and extensive fibrosis with non-caseating sarcoid granulomas. The lungs, kidneys and lymph node also showed the same non-caseating granulomas. The diagnosis of sarcoidosis with massive and extensive cardiac involvement was established as cause of death.     

The chimera of redistribution in post-apartheid South Africa: 'Black Economic Empowerment' (BEE) in industrial fisheries

Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) is an attempt to marry redistributiveand neo-liberal economic policies. The South African state,however, has differing degrees of power to force redistributionon different sectors of the economy. Fisheries is one of thesectors where state allocation of licenses, exploitation rightsand quotas makes the prospects for BEE promising. In this article,we examine redistributive processes in the hake trawl industry.We conclude that BEE, despite its redistributive intentions,has been doubly conducive to the interests of large-scale SouthAfrican capital. To begin with, it has by and large confirmedthe historical share of fishing rights to incumbent, largelywhite-controlled, operators. Second, it has created a layerof ‘black captains of industry’ to whom incumbentsare increasingly outsourcing primary production in a volatile,high-risk and currently loss-leading sector. While fishing operationsare being outsourced under the banner of redistribution, thefish trade remains under the effective control of white capital.     

Ecological Validity of the Inventory of Problems-29 (IOP-29): an Italian Study of Court-Ordered,Psychological Injury Evaluations Using the Structured Inventory of Malingered Symptomatology (SIMS) as Criterion Variable

The Inventory of Problems-29 (IOP-29; Viglione, Giromini, & Landis, Journal of Personality Assessment, 99(5), 534–544, 2017) is a 29-item, recently published, self-administered test aimed at assessing the credibility of various symptom presentations. Although available research strongly supports the use of this symptom validity test in malingering-related contexts, to date, only few studies have analyzed data from real-life forensic evaluations. To fill this gap and explore ecological and convergent validity, the current study analyzed data from 74 court-ordered evaluations aimed at establishing the possible presence of psychological injury. Such evaluations are high-stakes situations in which exaggeration or malingering occur relatively often. We used a research-supported and popular symptom validity test, i.e., the Structured Inventory of Malingered Symptomatology (SIMS; Smith & Burger, Journal of the American Academy on Psychiatry and Law, 25:180–183, 1997), as our criterion variable. The IOP-29 produced excellent area under the curve (AUC) values of .98 with a recommended SIMS total score cutoff (≥ 17) and .99 when eliminating too-close-to-classify cases (Rogers & Bender, 2018) and very large Cohen’s d effect sizes of 2.98 and 3.59, respectively. Crucially, when implementing established cut scores from previous research, the IOP-29 yielded very high specificity and sensitivity rates, and the predictions from the two tests were strikingly similar. Taken together, these findings support the strong convergent validity of the IOP-29 and its utility in applied clinical and forensic settings.     

Silence of the Innocents: Undocumented Immigrants’ Underreporting of Crime and their Victimization

Do undocumented migrants underreport crimes to the police in order to avoid being deported? And do criminals exploit such vulnerability? We address these questions using victimization surveys and administrative data around the 1986 U.S. immigration amnesty. The amnesty allows us to solve two major identification issues that have plagued this literature: migrants’ legal status is endogenous and unobserved. The results show that the reporting rate of undocumented immigrants is 17 percent, which limits the immigrants’ ability to protect some of their fundamental human rights. However, right after the 1986 amnesty, which disproportionately legalized individuals of Hispanic origin, crime victims of Hispanic origin show enormous improvements in reporting behavior. The implied increase in the reporting rate by amnesty applicants is close to 20 percentage points.