Aviation Security,Risk Assessment,and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking

This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well as losses. Since homeland security decisionmakers tend to be risk‐averse because of the catastrophic or dire nature of the hazard or event, utility theory and Monte Carlo simulation methods are used to propagate uncertainties in calculations of net present value, expected utility, and probabilities of net benefit. We employ a “break‐even” cost‐benefit analysis to determine the minimum probability of an otherwise successful attack that is required for the benefit of security measures to equal their cost. In this context, we examine specific policy options: including Improvised Physical Secondary Barriers (IPSBs) in the array of aircraft security measures, including the Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS), and including them both. Attack probabilities need to exceed 260 percent or 2.6 attacks per year to be 90 percent sure that FAMS is cost‐effective, whereas IPSBs have more than 90 percent chance of being cost‐effective even if attack probabilities are as low as 6 percent per year. A risk‐neutral analysis finds a policy option of adding IPSBs but not FAMS to the other measures to be preferred for all attack probabilities. However, a very risk‐averse decisionmaker is 48 percent likely to prefer to retain FAMS even if the attack probability is as low as 1 percent per year—a level of risk aversion exhibited by few, if any, government agencies. Overall, it seems that, even in an analysis that biases the consideration toward the opposite conclusion, far too much may currently be spent on security measures to address the problem of airline hijacking, and many spending reductions could likely be made with little or no consequent reduction of security.     

Estimating the health impact of industry infant food marketing practices in the Philippines

The decline in the prevalence and duration of breast‐feeding in less developed countries and the accompanying increase in bottle feeding is a concern. Little research has been done tracing the links from infant food marketing to infant and child health outcomes. In this study, Philippine mothers’ feeding decisions and infantile diarrhoeal morbidity rates are modelled and jointly estimated using semiparametric estimation methods. The data clearly support the hypothesis that infant feeding practices are important determinants of diarrhoeal morbidity and that breast‐feeding reduces the incidence of diarrhoea. Our results also show that marketing activities have affected infant feeding choices.     

Preventing juvenile sexual offending through parental monitoring: a comparison study of youth’s experiences of supervision

ABSTRACT

The parental monitoring literature has long observed a link between parental monitoring and juvenile antisocial behaviour. This study extends this line of research to juveniles who commit sexual abuse. The present study investigates whether juvenile reports of parental monitoring differ between juvenile sexual offenders (n?=?338), juvenile delinquents (n?=?346), and non-incarcerated juvenile controls (n?=?256). Results indicate that both incarcerated groups reported significantly less parental knowledge compared to juvenile controls. Further, both juvenile sexual offenders and juvenile controls reported significantly more parental control compared to juvenile delinquents. With regard to parental solicitation, the results were mixed for sexual offenders. They reported high levels of solicitation for some items (e.g. what the youth was doing, who they were with), and lower levels for other items (e.g. where the youth was, whether an adult would be present). When repeating these analyses with the exclusion of non-parent caregivers, a similar pattern of results emerged; however, item-level analyses revealed that parents of juvenile delinquents reported certain types of solicitation and control behaviours more frequently (e.g. asked where the youth was going, made sure the rules were followed) compared to findings from the main sample. Potential explanations for these findings as well as practical implications for prevention are discussed.     

Lustration in poland and the former czechoslovakia: a study in decommunization

This article examines the process of decommunization in Poland and the former Czechoslovakia as it impacted opportunity for public services employment in elected or civil service offices. In each setting we describe the motivations expressed for and against lustration in the public service, explain the patterns of decommunization in each country and consider these events from legal, ethical and political points of view.     

The International Community in Bosnia: Enduring Questions of Legitimacy

This analysis explores the legitimacy of the international communityin Bosnia and the outcome of international involvement in theprocess of democratization. The paper discusses normative definitionsof legitimacy and their relation to certain elements of theinternational community's involvement in Bosnia. The first partof the paper discusses the foundations of distrust of the internationalcommunity during the war, specifically the presence of the UN.The second part of the paper explores the legitimacy of theDayton Peace Agreement and the consequent Constitution. Thefinal part of this paper explains how the Office of the HighRepresentative presents an enormous challenge to legitimatedemocracy in Bosnia and concludes with questions relating tothe future of the Bosnian government.     

The Effect of Conjugal Visitation on Sexual Violence in Prison

Using yearly state-level data drawn from a variety of different sources and a pooled cross-sectional time-series research design, we examine whether conjugal visitation attenuates sexual violence in prison. The determination of whether sexual violence in prison is less apt to transpire in states that allow conjugal visitation is theoretically relevant. Feminist theory argues that conjugal visitation has little if any influence on the occurrence of rape and other sexual offenses in prison, notwithstanding the gender of the offender and victim, because such offenses are crimes of power that are employed by the offender as an instrument to dominate and humiliate the victim. On the other hand, sexual gratification theory postulates that conjugal visitation provides inmates with a means of sexual release. Therefore, conjugal visitation should reduce sexual offending in prison. Results support sexual gratification theory by showing that states permitting conjugal visitation have significantly fewer instances of reported rape and other sexual offenses in their prisons. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.     

Let the Sunshine In,or Else: An Examination of the “Teeth” of State and Federal Open Meetings and Open Records Laws

Public access laws are at the heart of transparent democracy, in place to ensure that government meetings and records are open to the public. However, compliance with these laws is often problematic, a fact that can be attributed, in part, to ineffective remedies available for violations of state and federal open government laws. This study examines the enforcement provisions of the public access laws in jurisdictions across the United States to explore the remedies available, including equitable relief such as injunctions and mandamus, actual and punitive damages, attorneys’ fees, and civil and criminal sanctions. Structural difficulties were revealed that can make these remedies toothless for people unlawfully denied access. The article concludes by suggesting improvements such as enhanced and uniform penalties, more consistent enforcement, and alternatives to litigation.     

Books notes

Economics

Governments and Growth, Francis Knox, Saxon House, 1976, pp. 138, £6.95.

Environment

Dictionary of Environmental Terms, Alan Gilpin, Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1976, pp. 174, £3.50.

Environmental Controls, Robert A. Leone, Lexington Books, 1976, pp. 123, £8.25.

Urban Growth Management Through Development Timing, Brower et al., Martin Robertson, 1976, pp. 116, £10.10.

Law

Sale of Goods and Consumer Credit, A. P. Dobson, 1975, Sweet & Maxwell, pp. 236, £2.85.

Political Geography

Modern Political Geography, Edward F. Bergman, Wm. C. Brown, 1975, pp. 393.

Political Behaviour

Political Behaviour, Howard Elcock, Methuen, 1976, pp. 309, £8.00.

Public Administration

Outlines of Public Administration, R. E. C. Jewell, 1976, Charles Knight, pp. 206, £4.50.