Strontium-90 as an indicator of time since death: a pilot investigation.

The results of a pilot investigation are presented. The study aimed to show that the presence of radioactive strontium-90 in human bone could be used as evidence of active uptake during life. In this way the time since death of the individual could be identified as occurring before or after the date when atmospheric levels of radioactive strontium were at a peak in the early 1960s. The results of this initial investigation were encouraging but further detailed analysis is required on a substantially larger sample of material spanning a more controlled time period.     

Survival models of recidivism among juvenile delinquents

Among juveniles, the probability of recidivism has a curvilinear relationship to age. Rates of reoffending do not simply increase or decrease with age, but rather, they increase as a function of age up to a certain point of peak activity and decrease with increasing age thereafter. Because of this, the forms of recidivism functions between cohorts of widely varying ages will differ considerably. This renders inapplicable one model for the analysis of recidivism rates which assumes proportional hazards (Cox proportional hazards regression models). Appropriate models will posit curved nonmonotonic hazard functions. This paper compares fits of the exponential, Weibull, and log-normal models to recidivism data collected on samples of chronic juvenile offenders and finds generally closer estimation of the recidivism functions using the latter model. Implications for the development of models of recidivism are discussed.     

Cost disease versus Leviathan explanations of rising government cost: An empirical investigation

In this paper we reexamine the apparently conflicting empirics of Borcherding et al. (1977) versus those of Barry and Lowery (1984). The latter, designed to test the cost disease versus bureau voting power hypotheses on US Citibase annual data between 1947 to 1979, was retested for the longer period available through 1989. Second, and more importantly, we isolate and test for the presence of a second channel for the exercise of bureaucratic power. That channel is the bureau's ability to use its information advantage to capture a portion of newly generated government rents through higher personal benefits (such as higher salaries). Such an analysis (following West, 1991) requires first that those factors generating new rents for government actually result in successful bureaucratic rent-seeking in the form of higher compensation levels. In addition, the analysis requires that these “artificial” increases in bureaucratic wages show up as significant determinants of the higher cost of providing government services. Incorporating a constructed Kau/Rubin variable into the Barry and Lowery database is then shown to improve the predictive power of both the cost disease and bureaucratic power hypotheses for US annual data between 1948 and 1989.     

Too little,too early: California’s transient advantage in the photovoltaic solar industry

Throughout its brief history, California has established itself as a national or international leader in key industries—such as aerospace, computing and entertainment—through early mover pre-emption and strong clustering effects. California firms were the initial world leaders in producing photovoltaic (PV) solar cells and dominated the initial aerospace niche market. However, these early efforts failed to create a durable cluster, and when the U.S. market lost interest in renewable energy during the 1990s, California firms were largely surpassed by Japanese, German and Chinese producers that focused on the mass market of using PV to displace fossil fuels for electricity generation. This paper reviews the history of the California PV producers in three phases: aerospace niche markets of the 1950s and 1960s, a brief policy-induced effort at electricity generation in the 1980s, and a twenty first century resurgence fueled by Silicon Valley venture capital. It then discusses why the early entry of the California firms failed to translate to sustained advantage for the firms or the region.     

Settlement probability asymmetries in the Swedish Labour Court

This paper focuses on settlement probabilities for different types of representation within the Swedish Labour Court. Empirical estimates on a set of cases concerned with unjust dismissals show that private representatives are generally less likely to reach a settlement than their union counterparts. The settlement probabilities converge following court-mandated information disclosure, which suggests that information asymmetry is an important factor in explaining differences in settlement behaviour and that private negotiations are not sufficient in general.     

Professional integrity in higher education: Behind the green curtain in the land of Oz

This article discusses concerns related to professional integrity in academics and to the use of collegiality as an informal criterion for employment and evaluation decisions. We question the nature of the educational enterprise and the academic environment within which both students and faculty operate. We use the AAUP Statement on Professional Ethics to guide our examination of collegiality, and the three traditional areas of faculty evaluation (teaching, scholarship, and service), as they relate to professional integrity. We discuss potential pitfalls in situations involving integrity concerns, and suggest that the use of collegiality in professional decisions is more prevalent and potentially harmful than many realize.     

‘Venona’: the British dimension

‘Venona’ remains the greatest secret of the Cold War yet to be declassified, and offers the pieces of a jigsaw that, when assembled and interpreted, reveals the identities of dozens of Soviet agents who participated in GRU and NKVD networks across the globe between 1940 and 1948. Among them, operating in London, were Professor J.B.S Haldane, codenamed ‘Intelligentsia’, and Lord Swaythling's son, the Honourable Ivor Montagu, appropriately codenamed ‘Nobility’. Contained in the sometimes partially decrypted texts are clues to hundreds of other, as yet unexposed, spies, active in Australia, Mexico, Sweden, the United States, Britain, and numerous other countries. Betrayed by William Wiesband and Kim Philby, the ‘Venona’ project failed to find the traitor known as ‘Baron’ inside the wartime GCHQ, but was responsible for the arrest of Klaus Fuchs, confirming the guilt of Alger Hiss, Donald Maclean and the Rosenbergs, supporting the allegations of Whittaker Chambers and Elizabeth Bentley, and sparking off molehunts on three continents. ‘Venona’ sheds important new light on the assassination of Trotsky, Soviet penetration of the Manhattan project at Los Alamos and Berkeley, and reveals high-level espionage in the White House, OSS, the State Department and virtually every government department in Washington DC.