Inequality and fertility

This article focuses on the relationship between inequality and fertility, with empirical analysis only of direct influences. Whereas much of the literature seems to be based on 0-order correlations, the present study uses multiple regression analysis to test the strength of the evidence for a relationship between inequality and fertility when competing hypotheses are also considered. In addition, this study attempts to clarify some of the issues surrounding the measurement of inequality and to show how these may affect empirical results. It appears from the results presented here that research into the relative status of women as an influence on fertility holds considerable promise. In particular, it is interesting that a measure of the relative status of women (ratio of female school enrollment to male school enrollment) that is highly correlated with absolute educational status of people in the nation in general, and even more highly correlated with absolute educational status of women, emerges as one of 3 important predictors of fertility. The other measure of the relative educational status of women (female school enrollment ratio minus male school enrollment ratio), which has lower correlations with absolute educational status both of women and people in general, does not appear important, although it should be an equally valid indicator of women's status. It also has lower correlations with total fertility rates. 1 focus of further research should be an attempt to disentangle the effects of the relative status of women from absolute status of women and absolute status of people in the nation as a whole. Less promising is the prospect of future work on the relationship between income inequaltiy and fertility. The results are unencouraging with respect to both sampling problems and the actual magnitude of the effect of inequality on fertility. Overall, it appears that the importance of income inequality as an influence on fertility may have been overstated in the past.     

Reviews

Vojtech Mastny, Russia's Road to the Cold War: Diplomacy, Warfare, and the Politics of Communism, 1941–1945. New York: Columbia University Press, 1979. xix + 409 pp. $16.95.

Hugh Seton‐Watson, The Imperialist Revolutionaries: Trends in World Communism in the 1960s and 1970s. Stanford, California: Hoover Institution Press, 1979. x + 157 pp. $6.95.

Egbert Jahn (ed.), Soviet Foreign Policy: Its Social and Economic Conditions. London: Allison and Busby, 1978. 160 pp. £6.50.

Stephen White, Political Culture and Soviet Politics, London: Macmillan, 1979. xi + 234 pp. £10.00 and £4.95.

Donald R. Kelley (ed.) Soviet Politics in the Brezhnev Era, New York: Praeger Publishers, 1980, vii + 269 pp. £14.25.

Morton Kaplan (ed.), The Many Faces of Communism, New York: The Free Press, 1978. x + 366 pp. $14.95.

David H. Howard, The Disequilibrium Model in a Controlled Economy, Farnborough: Lexington Books, 1980. x + 112 pp. £9.50/$20.50.

Felicity Ann O'Dell, Socialisation through children's literature: The Soviet example, Cambridge: Cambride University Press, 1978, x + 277 pp. £14.00.

Martin McCauley, Marxism‐Leninism in the German Democratic Republic. The Socialist Unity Party (SED), London: Macmillan, 1979. xix + 267 pp. £12.00.

R. W. Makepeace, Marxist Ideology and Soviet Criminal Law, Croom Helm, Barnes & Noble, 1980. 319 pp. £13.95.

Jan Tomasz Gross, Polish Society under German Occupation: The General‐gouvernement, 1939–1944, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1979. xviii + 343 pp. £11.00     

The forecasting potential of complex models

The nature and use of complex models for forecasting and policy simulation are analyzed on theoretical and empirical-performance grounds. The analysis suggests that while the accuracy of complex models in forecasting trends in such fields as economic and energy is, and will remain, undistinguished, complex models' special virtues of preserving counter-intuitive results and representing subsystem interdepedence could be used to better advantage than current practice permits. Suggestions for such improvements, through more diversified model structures, micro-process models in addition to the typical macro models, a mix of mechanically- and judgmentally-operated models, and the modeling of policy response, are reviewed.     

Competition in political and economic markets

Prepared as a response to Frey and Eichenberger's Anomalies in Political Economy. We thank Gordon Tullock for helpful discussions. This work was partially supported by the Taylor Experimental Laboratory at Washington University.     

The politics of family planning in the Maghrib

This article uses a comparative case study approach to relate policy outcomes in terms of family planning to the patterns of political forces observed in the 3 Maghrib states of Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia. It is suggested that official support for a strong family planning program may be linked to recognition of the problem of low labor absorption and to concrete steps taken to counter the problem. The article discusses different vantage points for approaching the political context of family planning and distinguishes between the use of family planning as an instrument of social policy and as an instrument of economic policy. Ideological reasons for opposition to or support of family planning are then outlined. The colonial experience of the 3 states is differentiated and a chronological account of their family planning programs is provided. The political systems and leadership of the 3 countries are separately discussed in greater detail, after which the influence of elite groups on family planning programs and activities in each country is assessed. Developments in the 3 countries since 1978 are then sketched. The author concludes that the relative importance of policies toward employment and women's status in connection with support for family planning has probably varied over time, with economics playing a greater role in the 1970s. The activities of non-regime political actors were found to be very significant in formulation of population policies in Algeria and Morocco but less so in Tunisia.