Predicting Outcomes with Juvenile Court Case Histories

This report supplements a prior article in this journal (Rogers and Williams, 1994). Utilizing Ted Palmer's 1991 formulation, we identified a set of indicators relevant to juvenile court decision-making and to policy formulation. Here, through a more stringent statistical technique, we provide additional evidence of the potential that juvenile court histories possess for both theory and practice. We explore case materials gained and maintained by juvenile probation officers as a way of generating outcome predictors for whether youth receive probation or institutionalization. Using discriminant function analysis, we obtain relatively good prediction. Delinquency history and social psychological variables are found to enhance prediction of case outcomes. Contrary to some scholars, we believe the juvenile court is here to stay. Thus, the fundamental issue becomes one of making it a more efficient, effective instrument for reintegrating youths it must serve. As this institution approaches its centennial in 1999, we believe the court must become a focal point of research. This article is intended to further that task. After identifying the three strongest predictive variables (offense after first hearing, alienation, and denial of blame), we employ our seven key indicators as a guide for illustrating their everyday application for juvenile probation officers working with their youthful clientele.     

The collation of forensic DNA case data into a multi-dimensional intelligence database

The primary aim of any DNA Database is to link individuals to unsolved offenses and unsolved offenses to each other via DNA profiling. This aim has been successfully realised during the operation of the New Zealand (NZ) DNA Databank over the past five years. The DNA Intelligence Project (DIP), a collaborative project involving NZ forensic and law enforcement agencies, interrogated the forensic case data held on the NZ DNA databank and collated it into a functional intelligence database. This database has been used to identify significant trends which direct Police and forensic personnel towards the most appropriate use of DNA technology. Intelligence is being provided in areas such as the level of usage of DNA techniques in criminal investigation, the relative success of crime scene samples and the geographical distribution of crimes. The DIP has broadened the dimensions of the information offered through the NZ DNA Databank and has furthered the understanding and investigative capability of both Police and forensic scientists. The outcomes of this research fit soundly with the current policies of 'intelligence led policing', which are being adopted by Police jurisdictions locally and overseas.     

Why Theater? Sociological Reflections on Art and Freedom, and the Politics of Small Things

In this paper using reflections on a dramatic moment in the life of the author’s ethnographic study of theater in Poland as a starting point, the relationship between art and politics is analyzed. The relationship between two central propositions is explored, leading to a conclusion: (1) Cultural freedom is a definitive characteristic of modern social life and (2) the freedom constituted by culture as the arts and sciences opens up public space for alternative social and political practices, and thus: cultural freedom is a base for political freedom. Applying these propositions to a study of theater in Poland, it is shown that art constitutes cultural freedom through its relative autonomy, and the politics of small things results. Societies are transformed.