Temporal regularities in homicide: Cycles,seasons, and autoregression

It has long been assumed that there exists a relationship between crime (including homicide) and season. After discussing three analytic approaches to this problem (looking for seasonality, a general autoregressive process, and cycles), we review the literature and show that confusing and conflicting findings have been reported about the temporal regularities of homicide. Employing monthly data from the Supplementary Homicide Reports (1976–1989), we find evidence for seasonality, autoregression, and cyclicality of homicide. Our modeling approaches clarify the previous conflicting research; implications for theory and future research are discussed.The data utilized in this study were made available by the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. The data originally were collected by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Neither the collector of the original data nor the Consortium bears any responsibility for the analyses or interpretations presented here. The authors contributed equally to this article.     

Israel

European Journal of Political Research -     

Lessons from Tuskegee: What Law Enforcement Can Learn from the History of Bioethics

Though Black lives continue to be lost during encounters with law enforcement, we remain far from a policy solution. While leading presidential candidates fail to offer concrete proposals, the recommendations of Campaign Zero appear to have found little traction. Furthermore, we are far from understanding the causes of the disproportionate use of violence against minorities. Faced with a growing crisis, law enforcement would do well to consider professions that have taken successful steps to outgrown their history of racial violence. The medical community’s response to the Tuskegee syphilis experiment is particularly instructive. Much as the medical community responded to a crisis of racial violence by fundamentally reconceptualizing the role of the physician, the time has come for a new ethics of policing that will reshape our understanding of the role of law enforcement.     

Validation of a new method of providing case-specific time-of-death estimates using cadaver temperatures

The near ubiquitous presence of numerical simulation has made case-specific calculations of body temperatures following death possible so that accurate calculations of body temperatures can provide valuable information for estimating the time of death and can aid in forensic investigations. Here, a computational approach is described that has been validated against multiple, independent, and experimental investigations. The approach only requires one subjective input parameter (the heat transfer coefficient). A simple algorithm serves as a guidepost to the selection of this parameter. The algorithm incorporates clothing and the space in which the body is housed. Heat transfer coefficients that range from h = 2 W/m²/°C for bodies that are heavily clothed to h = 9 W/m²/°C for bodies that are nude (in air). The method also requires setting of ambient temperature conditions (ambient temperature)—however, that input is often available. The paucity of inputs makes this technique remarkably easy to employ. The new method is also able to calculate cadaver cooling rates for situations where the cadaver is in a timewise or spatially changing thermal environment (diurnal temperature variations, bodies partially submerged in water, changes to weather, insolation, etc.). Results from the present calculations are compared with a large body of measurements from the literature; it was found that the predictions and measurements were in excellent agreement, regardless of the ambient temperature conditions and the nature of the clothing of the body. This new calculation approach can be used with reasonable accuracy for determining cadaver cooling and time since death.     

Not Just Brainwashed: Understanding the Radicalization of Indonesian Female Supporters of the Islamic State

ABSTRACT

Why do women become extremists? To what extent might they have self-agency? This paper examines the motivations and processes of female radicalization into the so-called Islamic State (IS) by drawing on a case study of Indonesian IS sympathizers, including the three migrant workers-turned-female suicide bombers whose radicalization was facilitated by social media. It argues that far from being coerced, most women join IS of their own free will. Prompted by a mix of personal crisis and socioeconomic and political grievances, the women embark on a religious seeking, exploring the various Islamic options available to them. Ideational congruence might spark the initial interest in IS, but it is generally emotional factors such as a feeling of acceptance and empowerment that make them stay. Contrary to common assumptions, women’s subordination in jihadist organizations is not absolute; it can be negotiated after joining. Most women try to conform to jihadist strict gender rules, but some, often with the support of male allies, try to bend the norms, including on female combat roles. The findings suggest that counter-terrorism agencies should abandon the binary view that women are either just brainwashing victims or terrorist provocateurs, and try to understand the gendered nuances of radicalization in order to formulate suitable preventive measures.