The persuasive power of a Committee Chairman: Arthur Burns and the FOMC

This paper investigates persuasion as a means of influence for the Federal Reserve Chairman in meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Using textual records of FOMC meetings, federal funds rate targets have been recorded for Committee members who served in the Arthur Burns era (1970–1978). Results show that Burns-member differences in stated funds rate targets were lower when Burns made recommendations early in the meeting, consistent with the hypothesis that the Chairman is persuasive. Additional results show that members’ tendencies to respond to Burns's recommendations were related to their personal and political loyalties.     

Books in review

A former editor of theAmerican Historical Review, he has written extensively on the history of modern Great Britain and more recently has published essays on the nature of the contemporary urban university.     

Measuring the Economic Returns from Successful NASA Life Sciences Technology Transfers

Since 1958 NASA has invested approximately $3.7 billion in life sciences R&D in the support of the successful human space flight program. There are numerous studies documenting the spin-off technologies that can be traced to NASA research and development activities. Most of these studies describe the technologies and their uses; however only a few measure the economic impact of the spin-offs and most of these are benefit/cost studies that tend to overstate benefits or underestimate costs. This study takes a different approach, measuring only economic impacts to the companies that developed successful spin-off products from NASA life sciences investments. A personal interview was conducted with each company and the benefits are conservatively estimated as the value-added by the NASA technology to the company's output and the amount of additional private R&D stimulated by the NASA R&D.This pilot study of fifteen companies, using a very conservative measurement technique, found a large return to companies that have successfully commercialized NASA life sciences spin-off products. Value-added benefits totaled over $3.7 billion in life sciences R&D in the support of the successful human space flight program. There are numerous studies documenting the spin-off technologies that can be traced to NASA research and development activities. Most of these studies describe the technologies and their uses; however only a few measure the economic impact of the spin-offs and most of these are benefit/cost studies that tend to overstate benefits or underestimate costs. This study takes a different approach, measuring only economic impacts to the companies that developed successful spin-off products from NASA life sciences investments. A personal interview was conducted with each company and the benefits are conservatively estimated as the value-added by the NASA technology to the company's output and the amount of additional private R&D stimulated by the NASA R&D.This pilot study of fifteen companies, using a very conservative measurement technique, found a large return to companies that have successfully commercialized NASA life sciences spin-off products. Value-added benefits totaled over 1.5 billion and a NASA R&D total investment in these 15 technologies of 64 million was found to stimulate an additional64 million was found to stimulate an additional 200 million in private R&D.     

The Determinants of Political Knowledge in Comparative Perspective

Political knowledge is a powerful predictor of political participation. Moreover, what citizens know about the political system and its actors is a central aspect of informed voting. This article investigates how and why political knowledge varies between citizens. The analysis is comparative and based on data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems. At the micro level, the results confirm results from national surveys – specifically that education explains what citizens know about politics. It is found in a contextualized analysis, however, that the effect of education varies with the country's degree of economic redistribution. In more egalitarian countries, political knowledge is less contingent on education attained than in more inegalitarian countries. Similarly, education seems to have a stronger effect in countries with majoritarian electoral systems compared to countries with proportional systems.     

Book Review: Facing the Decisions One Should Make and the Decisions One Wants to Make

Authors of two recent books, Smart Choices and The Win-Win-Solution, offer negotiation practitioners some new twists on how they can improve their decision-making processes. In the first book, Hammond, Keeney, and Raiffa present a five-part PrOACT system, which features: an assessment of the problem; determination of objectives; exploration of alternatives; comprehension of the consequences; and dealing with tradeoffs. The second book, by Brams and Taylor, outlines four settlement options that are available to decision makers, but advocates an adjusted winner approach. The authors have devised a system in which individuals' subjective assessments of particular items in dispute receive point totals, which can then be divided in an equitable manner. In effect, the authors show readers how to deal with the decisions they should make, and those they want to make.     

A Classification Tree Approach to the Development of Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment Tools

Since the 1970s, a wide body of research has suggested that the accuracy of clinical risk assessments of violence might be increased if clinicians used actuarial tools. Despite considerable progress in recent years in the development of such tools for violence risk assessment, they remain primarily research instruments, largely ignored in daily clinical practice. We argue that because most existing actuarial tools are based on a main effects regression approach, they do not adequately reflect the contingent nature of the clinical assessment processes. To enhance the use of actuarial violence risk assessment tools, we propose a classification tree rather than a main effects regression approach. In addition, we suggest that by employing two decision thresholds for identifying high- and low-risk cases--instead of the standard single threshold--the use of actuarial tools to make dichotomous risk classification decisions may be further enhanced. These claims are supported with empirical data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.     

Studying schizophrenia outside the psychiatric setting

Two groups of college students were identified using the MMPI as a screening device: those with normal profiles and those with schizophrenic profiles. All those with previous psychiatric treatment were eliminated. A third group of hospitalized schizophrenics was matched to the first two along lines of age, sex and socioeconomic status. The three groups were then studied via a semistructured interview and compared for the clinical features of hospitalized schizophrenics and for objective enironmental stresses. As predicted, a group of well-functioning, untreated schizophrenics was delineated. The usefulness of the MMPI as a screening device is clarified, and the question of the true prevalence of schizophrenia is discussed. Contrary to prediction, the well-functioning schizophrenics were similar to the hospitalized schizophrenics, not to the normal controls, with regard to objective environmental stresses. The possible meaning of this is discussed considering the concept of subjective environmental stresses.This research is in part supported by USPHS grants MH-18991, MH-19477-01, and State of Illinois 131-13-RD, State of Illinois 218-12-RD.This reasearch is part of an extensive program investigating schizophrenia which is being conducted jointly by the Psychosomatic and Psychatric Institute of Michael Reese Hospital, the Department of Psychiatry, Pritzker School of Medicine, the University of Chicago, and the Illinois State Psychiatric Institute.Received M.D. from Northwestern University. Served psychiatric residency at the Psychosomatic and Psychiatric Institute of Michael Reese Hospital. Main interest is in psychotherapy and psychodynamics of youth.