Estimating Dynamic Panel Data Models in Political Science

Panel data are a very valuable resource for finding empiricalsolutions to political science puzzles. Yet numerous publishedstudies in political science that use panel data to estimatemodels with dynamics have failed to take into account importantestimation issues, which calls into question the inferenceswe can make from these analyses. The failure to account explicitlyfor unobserved individual effects in dynamic panel data inducesbias and inconsistency in cross-sectional estimators. The purposeof this paper is to review dynamic panel data estimators thateliminate these problems. I first show how the problems withcross-sectional estimators arise in dynamic models for paneldata. I then show how to correct for these problems using generalizedmethod of moments estimators. Finally, I demonstrate the usefulnessof these methods with replications of analyses in the debateover the dynamics of party identification.     

Collaboration and Leadership for Effective Emergency Management

Collaboration is a necessary foundation for dealing with both natural and technological hazards and disasters and the consequences of terrorism. This analysis describes the structure of the American emergency management system, the charts development of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and identifies conflicts arising from the creation of the Department of Homeland Security and the attempt to impose a command and control system on a very collaborative organizational culture in a very collaborative sociopolitical and legal context. The importance of collaboration is stressed, and recommendations are offered on how to improve the amount and value of collaborative activities. New leadership strategies are recommended that derive their power from effective strategies and the transformational power of a compelling vision, rather than from hierarchy, rank, or standard operating procedures.     

Who Wants to Work for the Government?

In an era when everyone wants to be a millionaire, governments struggle to attract and retain highly qualified employees, making it more important than ever to understand what attracts people to the public service. Using contingency table analysis and logistic regression on the 1989 and 1998 General Social Surveys, we explore how individuals' demographic characteristics and the importance they place on various job qualities influence their preference for and employment in the public sector. Job security may still be the strongest attraction of government jobs, but high income and the opportunity to be useful to society also attract some Americans to the public service. Minorities, veterans, Democrats, and older Americans preferred public-sector jobs more than whites, nonveterans, Republicans, and younger Americans, who were otherwise similar. Women and college graduates were more likely than comparable men and less-educated respondents to have government jobs, but no more likely to prefer them. Overall, desire for government jobs declined markedly between 1989 and 1998.     

Reducing violence in serious juvenile offenders using intensive treatment

This study reports on the reduction in violent offending in a population of serious and violent juvenile offenders following an intensive institutional treatment program. The treatment group (N=101) is compared to a similar group that was assessed but not treated (N=147). All youth were sent to the program from a juvenile corrections institution where they had received the customary rehabilitation services. The results show a significant reduction in the prevalence of recidivism in the treated group after controlling for time at risk in the community and other covariates. The effects of non-random group assignment were reduced by including a propensity score analysis procedure in the outcome analysis. Untreated comparison youth appeared to be about twice as likely to commit violent offenses as were treated youth (44% vs. 23%). Similarly, treated youth had significantly lower hazard ratios for recidivism in the in the community than the comparison youth, even after accounting for the effects of non-random group assignment.     

Moving Up,Moving Out,or Going Nowhere? A Study of the Employment Patterns of Young Women and the Implications for Welfare Mothers

Conventional wisdom holds that women on welfare will be better off in the long run if they take a job, even if it means initially having less money to spend on their and their children's needs. Underlying this thinking is the belief that women who take low‐paying jobs will eventually move up to higher paying jobs either with their current employer or by changing employers. This paper examines the employment transitions of young women focusing on the likelihood that women who turn to the welfare system for support will make the transition from low‐paying to high‐paying jobs. The data are drawn from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY). Based on the experiences of women who never received welfare, an estimated one‐quarter of young women who received welfare could be firmly established in jobs paying more than $9.50 an hour by ages 26 and 27. An additional 40 percent would work steadily but in low‐paying jobs, and more than one‐third would work only sporadically. © 2001 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.