Book reviews

One World to Share: selected speeches of the Commonwealth Secretary‐General, 1975–9. Shridath Ramphal, London: Hutchinson Benham. 1979. 444 pp. £10.95

The White House Years. Henry Kissinger, London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson &; Michael Joseph. 1979. 1545 pp. £14.95

Kissinger and the Meaning of History. Peter W Dickson, Cambridge University Press. 1978. 207 pp. £8.95

Beyond Kissinger: ways of conservative statecraft. George Liska, London: Johns Hopkins University Press. 1975. 169 pp. $2.95

Where the Grass is Greener. David M Smith, Harmondsworth, England: Penguin. 1979. 386 pp. £2.25

Small‐Scale Irrigation. Peter Stern, London: Intermediate Technology Publications. 1979. 152 pp. np

The Social and Ecological Effects of Water Development in Developing Countries. Edited by Carl Widstrand, Oxford: Pergamon. 1978. 120 pp. £10.00

Water in a Developing World: the management of a critical resource. Edited by Albert E Utton &; Ludwik Teclaff, Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press (distributed in the UK by Ernest Benn). 1978. 282 pp. £13.75

Marx and the End of Orientalism. Bryan S Turner, London: George Allen &; Unwin. 1978. 98 pp. £3.50

Project Planning for Developing Economies. WW Shaner, New York: Praeger. 1979. 235 pp. £14.25

International Development Administration: implementation analysis for development. Edited by G Honadle &; Rudi Klaus, New York: Praeger. 1979. 221 pp. £13.00

Nutrition and National Policy. Edited by Beverly Winikoff, London: MIT Press. 1979. 580pp. £15.75

The Nuclear Question: the United States and nuclear weapons, 1946–76. Michael Mandelbaum, Cambridge University Press. 1979.277 pp £12.50

Force Without War: US armed forces as political instruments. Barry M Blechman &; Stephen S Kaplan, Washington DC: Brookings Institution (distributed in the UK by Blackwells). 1978. 584 pp. £15.00. £6.50 pb

Nuclear Arms in the Third World: US policy dilemma. Ernest W Lefever, Washington DC: Brookings Institution (distributed in the UK by Blackwells). 1979. 154 pp. £8.50. £3.25 pb

The Nonaligned Movement: the origins of a Third World alliance. Peter Willetts, London: Frances Pinter. 1978.310 pp. £12.50

Coups and Earthquakes: reporting the world for America. Mort Rosenblum, New York: Harper &; Row. 1979. 230 pp. £5.95

Nations and States. Hugh Seton‐Watson, London: Methuen. 1979.563 pp. £12.00

Rich World, Poor World. Geoffrey Lean, London: George Allen &; Unwin. 1978.335pp. £4.50 pb

Your Own Pigs You May Not Eat: a comparative study of New Guinea societies. Paula G Rubel and Abraham Rosman University of Chicago Press. 1978.368pp. £14.40

Afterthoughts on Material Civilisation and Capitalism. Fernand Braudel, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. 1977.120 pp. $7.95

Women in the Muslim World. Edited by Lois Beck &; Nikki Keddie, Harvard University Press. 1979. 698 pp. £18.00

The Economics of Multinational Enterprise. Neil Hood &; Stephen Young, London: Longman Group. 1979. 412 pp. £7.95 pb

The Social and Cultural Impacts of Transnational Enterprises. Krishna Kumar, University of Sydney. Transnational Corporations Research Project (Working Paper No 6). 1979. 183 pp.

A New Stage in International Relations. N I Lebedev, Oxford: Pergamon. 1978. 253 pp. $20.00

The Political and Military Laws of War. J Lider, Farnborough, England: Saxon House. 1979. 266 pp. £10.50.

Becoming Modern. Alex Inkeles &; David H Smith, London: Heinemann Educational. 1974.436 pp. £5.00

The Capitalist World Economy. Immanuel Wallerstein, New York: Cambridge University Press. 1979. 305pp. £15.00

South Africa: the method in the madness. John Kane‐Berman, London: Pluto Press. 1979. 265 pp. £2.95 pb

White Man, We Want to Talk to You. Denis Herbstein, London: Andre Deutsch. 1979. 270 pp. £4.95

Africa Undermined: a history of the mining companies and the underdevelopment of Africa. G Lanning with M Mueller, Harmondsworth, England: Penguin. 1979. 590 pp. £3.50

Africanisation, Nationalisation and Inequality: mining labour and the copper belt in Zambian development. Philip Daniel, Cambridge University Press: 1979.202 pp. £12.50. £5.95 pb

Nasser and His Generation. PJ Vatikiotis, London: Croom Helm. 1978. 375 pp. £11.95

Politics Mainly Indian. W H Morris‐Jones, Bombay: Orient Longman. 1978. 392 pp. Rs 60.00

Papua New Guinea: its economic situation and prospects for development. G W Baldwin et al, London: Johns Hopkins University Press. 1978.223 pp. £4.50 pb

Paradise Postponed: essays on research and development in the South Pacific. Edited by Alexander Mamak &; Grant McCall, Oxford: Pergamon. 1978. 277 pp. £11.25

Urbanisation in Papua New Guinea: a study of ambivalent townsmen. Hal B Levine &; Marlene Wolfzahn Levine, Cambridge University Press. 1979.161 pp. £8.95. £3.95 pb

The Land of Promise: A critique of political Zionism. Abdelwahab M Elmessiri, New Brunswick, New Jersey: North American. 1977.255 pp. $6.95 pb

ASEAN Economies in Perspective: a comparative study of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. John Wong, London: Macmillan. 1979.217 pp. £3.95 pb

China's Role in World Affairs. Michael B Yahuda, London: Croom Helm. 1978. 300 pp. £10.95. £4.95 pb

Mao's China: a history of the People's Republic. Maurice Meisner, New York: Free Press. 1977. 416 pp. np

China and the Major Powers in East Asia. A Doak Barnett, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution (distributed in the UK by Blackwells). 1977. 416 pp. np

Chinese Politics After Mao. Edited by Jurgen Domes, Cardiff, Wales: University College Cardiff Press. 1979. 291 pp. np

São Paolo: growth and poverty. A Report from the São Paolo Peace and Justice Commission, with an introduction by Cardinal Arns, Archbishop of Säo Paulo. London: The Bowerdean Press (in association with The Catholic Institute for International Relations). 1978.128 pp. £3.40

Frontier Development Policy in Brazil: a study of Amazônia. Dennis J Mahar, New York: Praeger. 1979.182 pp. £10.50

Arise Ye Starvelings: the Jamaican labour rebellion of 1938 and its aftermath. Ken Post, London: Institute of Social Studies/The Hague: Martinus Nijhoff. 1979.502 pp. np

The Future of the Inter‐American System. Edited by TJ Farer, London: Praeger. 1979. 290 pp. £13.00     

Forecasting economies in transition: The case of Romania

Structural change is endemic in the Eastern European economies and the newly emerging Commonwealth of Independent States yet conventional econometric modelling techniques proceed under the assumption that there is a structurally stable ‘true’ economy to be discovered. This paper extends the analysis of Hall (1993) by exploring the consequences of endemic structural change for forecasting and building structural econometric models. We propose a model formulation which makes the econometric model itself able to adjust its parameters in the light of economic change using the Kalman Filter. The paper then illustrates this approach by building a small model of Romania and investigating its forecasting properties.     

Measuring the correlation of shocks between the EU15 and the new member countries

This paper considers the question of the symmetry of inflation, exchange rate changes and GDP shocks between the EU15 and the new member countries. It applies a relatively new technique, the orthogonal GARCH model, which allows us to calculate a complete time varying correlation matrix for these countries. We can then examine the way the conditional correlation of shocks between the EU15 and the new member countries has been evolving over time. Our results suggest that the shocks which hit the EU are not symmetrical with those affecting the majority of new member countries. In addition, most of the new member countries seem to exhibit relatively low correlation with EU15.     

Examining the constitutionality of Internet filtering in public schools: a US perspective

The use of Internet filters in public classrooms in the USA has been intensely debated, both in terms of its effectiveness and legality. The debate pits concerns to protect students from indecent material against issues of unconstitutional censorship. This paper examines the legal issues addressed in various rulings by the US Supreme Court pertinent to issues raised in the debate over the constitutionality of filtering in the classroom. The rulings and opinions offer valuable insights into the legal issues raised in this debate.