Extending the Confusion About Bayes

In R v T [2010] EWCA Crim 2439, [2011] 1 Cr App Rep 85, the Court of Appeal indicated that ‘mathematical formulae’, such as likelihood ratios, should not be used by forensic scientists to analyse data where firm statistical evidence did not exist. Unfortunately, when considering the forensic scientist's evidence, the judgment consistently commits a basic logical error, the ‘transposition of the conditional’ which indicates that the Bayesian argument has not been understood and extends the confusion surrounding it. The judgment also fails to distinguish between the validity of the relationships in a formula and the precision of the data. We explain why the Bayesian method is the correct logical method for analysing forensic scientific evidence, how it works and why ‘mathematical formulae’ can be useful even where firm statistical data is lacking.     

Finance-growth-poverty nexus: a re-assessment of the trickle-down hypothesis in China

Poverty has remained one of the prominent challenges of humanity. Different solutions have been suggested to curb poverty. Economic growth and financial development are two such crucial tools for overcoming poverty, as frequently pointed out by economists. These tools work through the so-called trickle-down hypothesis, which contends that a well-functioning financial system would enhance poverty reduction by promoting economic growth. One country that appears to have manifested this hypothesis is China. However, the empirical test of the trickle-down hypothesis for China is scant. In addition, most of the existing studies have failed to account for regime-shift in parameters or structural breaks. This paper attempts to fill this void by testing the trickle-down hypothesis for China during the period 1985–2014. We utilized two standard proxies for financial development, namely: the domestic credit to private sector by banks as percentage of GDP, and money and quasi money as percentage of GDP; annual percentage change in real GDP per capita to proxy economic growth; and a standard proxy for poverty reduction namely: the household final consumption expenditure per capita growth. By accounting for structural breaks in our empirical specifications, we found overwhelming support for the trickle-down hypothesis at the national level. That is, we found financial development to cause economic growth, which in turn causes poverty reduction in China at the national level. This has important policy implications.     

Emerging Indicators and Bureaucracy: From the Iron Cage to the Metric Cage

ABSTRACT

Among the New Public Management (NPM) tools that have been implemented, one of the most common is use of indicators. Many studies have argued that imposition of an indicator entails a bureaucratization process. But the scholarly debate on these instruments has been shaped by a vertical perspective and has been focused on the effects of top-down indicators on organizations at the local level. In this paper, we wish to lay the emphasis on an emerging indicator, constructed and used by the actors themselves within a local forest management unit. We wish to draw attention to the manner in which, at the micro-level, a performance measure is worked out. We argue that these emerging indicators place a new locus of power in the hands of rangers but, rather than emphasizing hierarchy and chain of command, such indicators do not contribute to development of a Weberian iron cage. In contrast, there appears a metric cage, a mix of pragmatic rationality (instrumental and communicative), non-fixed rules, and technical-normative authority.     

Do African Manufacturing Firms Learn from Exporting?

We use firm-level panel data for the manufacturing sector in four African countries to investigate whether exporting impacts on efficiency, and whether efficient firms self-select into the export market. Based on simultaneous estimation of a production function and an export regression, our preferred results indicate significant efficiency gains from exporting, which can be interpreted as learning by exporting. We show that modelling unobserved heterogeneity by a flexible approach is important for deriving this conclusion. A policy implication of our results is that Africa would gain from orientating its manufacturing sector towards exporting.     

Self-Reported Delinquency: Age and Class Statuses: and the Control Network of a Small City in West Germany

This study, which includes a comparison of American experience, focuses on women policing in India. Using a standardized survey questionnaire, data were collected from women officers on line duty in all district police departments in the State of Tamil Nadu, India, and in municipal and sheriff's departments in New Jersey. A discriminant analysis found important differences between the samples in the officer's preferred roles, with more of the officers from Tamil Nadu preferring a traditional role. Other differences were also found between the samples in terms of deployment experience, career commitment, perceived interests and perceived capability in performing various tasks compared with male officers. These differences appeared to be due to both organizational and cultural factors.     

Properly drafted arbitration agreement as a safeguard to its adequate interpretation: Rwanda case study

Since the seminal Sex Discrimination Act 1975, modern British equality law developed in a piecemeal fashion over four decades. The landmark Equality Act 2010 was designed to unify, simplify and, to a limited extent, strengthen the legislation in this area. Despite its long gestation period, the Bill suffered from a lack of parliamentary scrutiny. This article sets the Equality Act in context and, by analysing certain aspects, discusses how far it has met those aims.     

Discriminating red spray paints by optical microscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and X-ray fluorescence

Red spray paints from different European suppliers were characterised to determine the discriminating power of a sequence of analysing techniques. A total of 51 red spray paints were analysed with the help of three techniques: (1) optical microscopy, (2) Fourier transform infrared spectrometry and (3) X-ray fluorescence. Infrared spectra were classified according to binder type, filler and pigment composition and a searchable spectral library was created. Due to the difference in the elemental composition of spray paints, a further discrimination was possible. The microscopic analysis was not taken into consideration for classification purposes. The structure of the substrate under a paint coating strongly affects the surface characteristics of this spray paint. Together with the spectral library, a database of information of spray paints was build.