Modeling Duration Dependence

As applications of duration analysis have burgeoned in politicalscience, scholars have become increasingly aware of the potentialsubstantive importance of duration dependence: the extent towhich the conditional hazards of the events of interest arerising or falling over time. Here I discuss the issue of durationdependence, focusing on the distinction between "spurious" dependencedue to unobserved heterogeneity and "true" duration dependencedue to state dependence in the process of interest. I presenta simple extension of a commonly used parametric duration model—theWeibull model—which allows researchers to assess the influenceof causal variables on the nature and extent of duration dependencein their data. I then illustrate the application of this "generalizedWeibull" model using data on the duration of international alliances.     

The Spirit of Capitalism? Religious Doctrine,Values, and Economic Attitude Constructs

This article examines the relationship between conservative Protestant doctrine and economic policy attitudes. Building upon Weber's (1930) classic (and controversial) thesis that Calvinist thought inspired the capitalist spirit, we posit that the individualistic theology of fundamentalists, evangelicals, and charismatics often engenders political preferences for individualistic economic policies. We test this hypothesis by (1) performing a series of cross-sectional ordered probit analyses to understand the independent degree of association between doctrinal belief and economic attitudes toward taxing, spending, and the role of government, (2) creating and testing a structural equation model to assess various hypothesized paths of influence, and finally, (3) using 1994–96 NES panel data to assess the degree to which changes in an individual's doctrinal beliefs produce changes in his or her economic attitudes. Results lend substantial support to the efficacy of Weber's thesis, and point to religious belief as one exogenous agent of core political values.     

Challenging international law: a dilemma of private security companies

Since the end of the Cold War, there has been a marked increase in the sale of military services by private security companies (PSCs).1 ?1. The term private security company is used throughout the article instead of private military companies or private military firms. View all notes These companies sell anything from combat support for government military operations to military training and assistance, logistical support and more conventional security protection services. They have undertaken operations in countries as diverse as Sierra Leone, Croatia, and Columbia and now Iraq and Afghanistan. The presence of these companies on the international stage raises fundamental questions about the way war is now being fought. Unfortunately, the legal issues raised by their presence in conflicts have not yet been properly addressed. This article sets out to examine the suitability of international law in defining and controlling the activities of PSCs on the battlefield. It then goes on to discuss the problems associated with national regulation. Here the focus is on the attempts by the United States (US), South Africa, and United Kingdom (UK) governments to introduce effective legislation to control the industry.     

A PCR multiplex and database for forensic DNA identification of dogs

Animal-derived trace evidence is a common finding at crime scenes and may provide an important link between victim(s) and suspect(s). A database of 558 dogs of pure and mixed breeds is described and analyzed with two PCR multiplexes of 17 microsatellites. Summary statistics (number of alleles, expected and observed heterozygosity and power of exclusion) are compared between breeds. Marked population substructure in dog breeds indicates significant inbreeding, and the use of a conservative theta value is recommended in likelihood calculations for determining the significance of a DNA match. Evidence is presented that the informativeness of the canine microsatellites, despite inbreeding, is comparable to the human CODIS loci. Two cases utilizing canine DNA typing, State of Washington v. Kenneth Leuluaialii and George Tuilefano and Crown v. Daniel McGowan, illustrate the potential of canine microsatellite markers for forensic investigations.     

Development and evaluation of a standard method for the quantitative determination of elements in float glass samples by LA-ICP-MS

Forensic analysis of glass samples was performed in different laboratories within the NITE-CRIME (Natural Isotopes and Trace Elements in Criminalistics and Environmental Forensics) European Network, using a variety of Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) systems. The main objective of the interlaboratory tests was to cross-validate the different combinations of laser ablation systems with different ICP-MS instruments. A first study using widely available samples, such as the NIST SRM 610 and NIST SRM 612 reference glasses, led to deviations in the determined concentrations for trace elements amongst the laboratories up to 60%. Extensive discussion among the laboratories and the production of new glass reference standards (FGS 1 and FGS 2) established an improved analytical protocol, which was tested on a well-characterized float glass sample (FG 10-1 from the BKA Wiesbaden collection). Subsequently, interlaboratory tests produced improved results for nearly all elements with a deviation of < 10%, demonstrating that LA-ICP-MS can deliver absolute quantitative measurements on major, minor and trace elements in float glass samples for forensic and other purposes.     

Rural and urban differences in the commission of animal cruelty

Despite the recent surge in society's interest in human violence, relatively few studies have been conducted examining the closely related phenomenon of animal cruelty. Although several researchers have begun to identify some of the correlates of animal cruelty, few have attempted to understand how differences in the backgrounds of rural and urban residents have led to their abuse of animals. Using survey data from 261 inmates, the authors investigate how demographic, familial differences and species type have contributed to the frequency of acts of animal cruelty. In general, early exposure to animal abuse is a strong predictor of the subsequent behavior. However, rural inmates learned to be cruel by watching family members exclusively, whereas urban inmates learned from family members and friends. Moreover, urban inmates chose dogs, cats, and wild animals as their target animals; however, rural inmates chose only cats.     

Learning to be cruel?: exploring the onset and frequency of animal cruelty

Few studies have examined how animal cruelty is learned within a specific social context among incarcerated individuals. Using data from 261 inmates, this study specifically addressed how demographic characteristics and childhood experiences with animal abuse may have affected the recurrence and onset of childhood and adolescent cruelty as a learned behavior. Multiple regression analyses revealed that inmates who experienced animal cruelty at a younger age were more likely to demonstrate recurrent animal cruelty themselves. In addition, respondents who observed a friend abuse animals were more likely to hurt or kill animals more frequently. Finally, inmates who were younger when they first witnessed animal cruelty also hurt or killed animals at a younger age.