A better budget rule

Debt limits, interest coverage ratios, one‐off balanced budget requirements, pay‐as‐you‐go rules, and tax and expenditure limits are among the most important fiscal rules for constraining intertemporal transfers. There is considerable evidence that the least costly and most effective of such rules are those that focus directly on the rate of spending growth, even with their seemingly ad hoc nature and possibilities for circumvention. In this paper, we use optimal control theory and martingale methods to justify a transparent, nonarbitrary rule governing maximum sustainable rate of spending growth, treating the revenue structure of a jurisdiction as a given continuous‐time stochastic process. Our results can be used to determine whether a proposed rate of spending growth is sustainable or not. © 2009 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management     

The life satisfaction approach to valuing public goods: The case of terrorism

Terrorism has large social costs that are difficult to quantify for the well-known problems of eliciting people’s preferences for public goods. We use the LSA to assess these costs in utility and monetary terms. Based on combined cross-section time-series data, we estimate the costs of terrorism for France and the British Isles. We find large negative effects of terrorism on life satisfaction that translate into considerable compensating surpluses for a hypothetical reduction in terrorism, in particular for the serious conflict in Northern Ireland. The effects of terrorism are robust and differ across groups in accordance with prior expectations.     

Referendums in the EU’s constitution building process

In ten member states of the European Union (EU) the new constitutional treaty was supposed to be ratified by referendum. A growing number of theoretical models predicts that such additional ratification hurdles result in an advantage for negotiators in the bargaining game. The impact such a referendum constraint can exert, however, depends on the timing of its announcement, the remaining ratification rules as well as the preference constellations. If parliament and voters are actually in favor of the new treaty, ratification constraints may cease to affect the bargaining outcome. After presenting the theoretical foundation of these arguments, we present empirical evidence much in line with the theoretical implications. More specifically, especially for the issues changed during the intergovernmental conference, those governments gained that had scheduled a referendum and voters had a stronger preference for the status quo.

Women’s perspectives on the value of a father’s initiative in shifting gendered practices within families

This paper explores the qualitative perspectives of women about a community embedded fathers’ initiative in Northern England. Projects to improve the well-being of men and their children are less common within the landscape of parent and child support, with mothers more often being the target recipients. Asking women about their perceptions of an initiative for fathers then offers original insights from women who are positioned as ‘related outsiders’, in that they were ‘outside’ the project but ‘inside’ the family and community. Findings suggest that women are able to see the positive impact of such a project, identifying that it offers a shared space for men and children, time for mothers without their children and can help with shifting roles and attitudes around childcare and emotional labour in the home. The initiative was also seen by the women as offering men more healthy means of coping, including men moving away from traditional hegemonic practices, which in turn shifted some women’s long held gendered beliefs about men as fathers. This research then offers a relational gendered backstory to a father’s initiative, demonstrating how such initiatives can potentially ‘undo’ gender and the positive implications this could have for families.     

Reciprocal Relationships between Trajectories of Depressive Symptoms and Screen Media Use during Adolescence

Adolescents are constantly connected with each other and the digital landscape through a myriad of screen media devices. Unprecedented access to the wider world and hence a variety of activities, particularly since the introduction of mobile technology, has given rise to questions regarding the impact of this changing media environment on the mental health of young people. Depressive symptoms are one of the most common disabling health issues in adolescence and although research has examined associations between screen use and symptoms of depression, longitudinal investigations are rare and fewer still consider trajectories of change in symptoms. Given the plethora of devices and normalisation of their use, understanding potential longitudinal associations with mental health is crucial. A sample of 1,749 (47% female) adolescents (10–17 years) participated in six waves of data collection over two years. Symptoms of depression, time spent on screens, and on separate screen activities (social networking, gaming, web browsing, TV/passive) were self-reported. Latent growth curve modelling revealed three trajectories of depressive symptoms (low-stable, high-decreasing, and low-increasing) and there were important differences across these groups on screen use. Some small, positive associations were evident between depressive symptoms and later screen use, and between screen use and later depressive symptoms. However, a Random Intercept Cross Lagged Panel Model revealed no consistent support for a longitudinal association. The study highlights the importance of considering differential trajectories of depressive symptoms and specific forms of screen activity to understand these relationships.     

Religiosity and Alcohol Use in Sexual Minority and Heterosexual Youth and Young Adults

Despite interest in the role of religiosity in youth development and health behavior, few studies have examined these associations in sexual minority youth. Participants (n = 11,699) who were adolescents (wave 1) and young adults (wave 3) in the Add Health survey were used to examine proximal and distal religiosity by sexual identity group and to test group differences in associations between religiosity and alcohol use. Sexual minorities were less likely than heterosexuals to report a current religious affiliation. In young adulthood, heterosexual females reported significantly higher distal and proximal religiosity than heterosexual males and sexual minority young adults. From adolescence to young adulthood, religiosity in all three sexual identity groups (heterosexual, bisexual, gay/lesbian) significantly declined, with the largest effects found for the sexual minority groups. Distal and proximal religiosity scores were significantly associated with less alcohol use and less binge drinking among heterosexuals, but not among sexual minorities. Future studies of sexual minority youth and their religious contexts are suggested.

Trajectories of Anxiety During Elementary-school Years and the Prediction of High School Noncompletion

Previous research has provided mixed results regarding the effect of anxiety on academic achievement. Building on this body of research, the present longitudinal study pursued two goals. The first goal was to describe trajectories of anxiety during elementary-school years. The second goal was to determine the predictive value of these trajectories on high school noncompletion after controlling for personal (i.e., gender, classroom behaviors, and academic achievement) and familial (i.e., sociofamilial adversity) characteristics. A community sample of 1,817 children (887 boys, 930 girls) participated in this study. Results showed that anxiety tended to fluctuate from kindergarten to Grade 6 for different groups of children. Furthermore, the result of a logistic regression analysis indicated that group membership for anxiety predicted high school noncompletion by age 20. As a whole, these findings suggest that considering heterogeneous developmental patterns of anxiety during elementary-school years appears quite useful for predicting an important outcome such as high school noncompletion.

Private Schools and the Parents that Choose Them: Empirical Evidence from the Danish School Voucher System

Research on the effect of school choice on student performance has generally been based on small-scale experiments or comparisons of Catholic and public schools in the United States. Recent studies indicate, however, that the market competition stemming from school vouchers does not affect all private schools equally. This study makes use of individual-level register data on the performance of more than 30,000 students in Denmark, where private schools have been voucher-financed for more than 100 years, while public schools are governed and financed by the politico-administrative system. Using an instrumental variable model to exclude selection effects, the results show no significant average effect of private schooling on final examination scores. However, a multilevel model shows that private schools of high socio-economic status perform better than similar public schools, while private schools of low socio-economic status under-perform – even for individual students with high socio-economic status. This indicates that the institutional setting of a voucher system is not enough to raise educational performance in general, arguably because some parents choose schools on the basis of non-academic criteria.     

Democracy as a Latent Variable

We apply formal, statistical measurement models to the Polity indicators, used widely in studies of international relations to measure democracy. In so doing, we make explicit the hitherto implicit assumptions underlying scales built using the Polity indicators. Modeling democracy as a latent variable allows us to assess the "noise" (measurement error) in the resulting measure. We show that this measurement error is considerable and has substantive consequences when using a measure of democracy as an independent variable in cross-national statistical analyses. Our analysis suggests that skepticism as to the precision of the Polity democracy scale is well founded and that many researchers have been overly sanguine about the properties of the Polity democracy scale in applied statistical work.