Recidivism as a feedback process: An analytical model and empirical validation

A feedback model of the criminal justice system (CJS) incorporates the continuing input of people arrested for the first time (virgin arrests) and the recycling of individuals with prior arrests (recidivists). Such a model is needed to enable CJS planners to assess the impact of possible actions on the future arrests and system workloads. Using an empirically determined estimate of the number of virgin arrests in the U.S. as input to a feedback model of the CJS, recidivism parameters, probability of rearrest, and average time between arrests were estimated by matching the output of the model to the total arrests in the U.S. in the period 1960–70. The average deviation between the model output and total U.S. arrests was minimized at less than 4% when the probability of rearrest is equal to 0.875 and the average time between arrests equal to 1.1. years. The relative sensitivity of total arrests to changes in virgin arrests and the probability of rearrest are also presented.     

The experience of spermarche (the age of onset of sperm emission) among selected adolescent boys in Nigeria

This study examines the psychological experience of ejaculation among a sample of boys in relation to their emotional reactions to the experience, feelings of preparedness prior to the experience, pre- experience sources of information, and the extent of peer discussion after the experience. A total of 188 boys were selected for the study. The mean age of all the boys was 16.5 years (range 12–18 years). The results of the study revealed that the male experience of first ejaculation was not negative. The subjects indicated that they received more information from purely male sources, and they told friends about the experience after it happened. The level of preparedness of the subjects did not show any influence on the emotional responses of the subjects to first ejaculation. A simple ttest was used to compare subjects who were prepared and those not prepared for ejaculation on their emotional responses. The findings of the study were discussed and suggestion was made for further research.This research was supported by funds provided by the University of Ilorin Senate Research Committee.Also a member of the Counselling Association of Nigeria. Received master's degree in counselling psychology from the University of Ibadan, Nigeria, and doctorate degree in guidance and counselling from the University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria. Research interests include transition from childhood to adulthood, Correlates of pubertal problems in Nigerian adolescents, Adolescent sexuality (teenage prostitution, teenage pregnancy, etc.), child abuse and neglect, and developing psychological support programs for pubertal adolescents.     

Parkinson's Law and the United States Bureau of Prisons

Conclusion From the foregoing discussion and the data presented, I think that is is safe to conclude that Parkinson's Law does hold, at least insofar as the United States Bureau of Prisons is concerned. Not only has the number of BOP employees increased in accordance with the Law, but it has actually exceeded the rate of increase which Parkinson predicted. Moreover, as we have seen, the increase in the number of BOP employees seems to be in no way related to the quantity or quality of the work to be done. Whether or not the BOP is indeed the “ultimate bureaucracy”, as I believe to be the case, has not been proven. Such proof would require comparisons between the BOP and all other existing bureaus of the U.S. Government—a task far beyond the scope of this paper. It is certain, however, that the BOP is enough of a Parkinsonian bureaucracy to startle any but the most hopelessly biased reader. That much alone is significant.     

Expenditures and votes: In search of downward-sloping curves in the United States and Great Britain

An earlier paper showed a negative relation between increases and accelerations in F, the ratio of federal expenditures to GNP and E, the reelection or defeat of the incumbent party in the White House over the last 100 years. This paper argues that there also exists a negative relation between V, the percentage of the popular vote cast for the incumbents, and F. This function is displaced by wars and depressions and can drift over time, making it difficult to discover negative curves in the data. Dividing British and US data for the last 50 years into party periods yields clearly discernable negative functions for F and V for the incumbents.     

Alcohol abuse prevention among high-risk youth: computer-based intervention

SUMMARYThis study examined the feasibility of a CD-ROM intervention to prevent alcohol abuse among high-risk youths. Youths from 41 community-based agencies in greater New York City participated in a randomized trial of a skills-based interactive CD-ROM. Outcome data were collected on 489 early adolescents in these agencies before and after a randomized subset of youths interacted with a 10-session alcohol abuse prevention program on CD-ROM. Compared to control participants, youths in the intervention arm had a positive increase in perceived harm of alcohol use and increased assertiveness skills. At posttest, drinking rates for control and intervention participants were equal and unchanged from pretest. These findings suggest that CD-ROM technology offers a new and promising medium for engaging high-risk youth in an alcohol abuse prevention program. Study implications and future applications of the present approach are discussed.     

The reasonable person standard: trading off static and dynamic efficiency

This paper compares the performance of a due care standard which is tailored to individual precaution costs to that of the reasonable person standard. This is done in a framework in which injurers can reduce their precaution costs via investment in progressing care technology. We show that the reasonable person standard may invoke better investment incentives, pointing to a potential trade-off between static and dynamic efficiency.