Exchange rate, inflation and unemployment in East European economies: the case of Poland and Hungary*

The aim of the paper is to model the impact of exchange rate on both inflation and unemployment variables in economies which are characterized by important structural changes, i.e. a transition phase moving from centralized economies towards market economies. This phenomenon, which is common to the East European countries, stressed different effects both for what concerns the behaviour of economic agents and for what concerns fiscal and monetary measures adopted by governments and aiming to keep under control the inflation–unemployment trade off. Time series relationships between these variables are investigated within an econometric model. Economic theory and the available data on the hypothetically relevant variables, along with the consideration of the main facts occurred in the period under study, characterize our information set. It is found that single equation analysis yields inefficient inference relative to the whole system analysis, and important structural changes are detected which reflect possible breaks in the structure of the economic system along with a change in economic policy.     

Brazilian National Identity at a Crossroads: The Myth of Racial Democracy and the Development of Black Identity

This article aims at coping with the 2003 implementation of affirmative action policies favoring blacks and “browns” in public-funded universities in Brazil. We are especially interested in coming to terms with some of the most resounding controversies over this type of “race”-based policy, which in our view are to be seen as reactions to some core aspects of Brazil’s national identity. The key question that has pervaded this debate is: Should the State apparatus, by means of these non-universalist policies, foster racial identities in a society that has historically imagined itself as racially mixed and, as such, able to deal with race-based conflicts in a quite positive way? As we will strive to demonstrate, these controversies gained momentum as multiculturalism started to inform identity-oriented social movements, which in recent years excelled in challenging the image of Brazil as a successful case of a melting-pot society by denouncing deep-seated social inequalities grounded in racial lines. We want to investigate whether popular resistance to race-based public policies will propel the rise of a sort of resented form of nationalism in Brazil’s public scene.     

Does homeownership counseling affect the prepayment and default behavior of affordable mortgage borrowers?

The lack of industrywide data on homeownership education and counseling (HEC) programs has severely limited evaluation. In particular, very little evidence exists on the relationship between HEC completion and loan prepayment, an outcome of interest to both mortgage lenders and consumer advocates. Where mortgage prepayment directly influences the sustainability of affordable mortgage products, it also reflects the ability of underserved borrowers to access lower‐cost credit through refinancing. This study uses a uniquely rich data set to examine the impact of HEC completion on prepayment and defaultamongborrowers receivingHECfrom a variety of providers across 42 states. The loans, originated between 1999 and 2003, are observed through the first quarter of 2006, a period in which strong housing appreciation and decreasing interest rates generated substantial refinancing activity. Using a competing risks model of mortgage prepayment and default, we find that HEC programs based on classroom instruction and individual counseling improve a borrower's exercise of the mortgage prepayment option, but that programs based on home study or telephone counseling did not affect borrower behavior. Counseling shows no effect on default propensities. © 2008 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Suicidal intent in single-car accident drivers: Review and new preliminary findings

This study addressed the issue of a possible link between single-car accident drivers and suicidal intent. In the international literature this topic has generated both positive and negative results. Some authors have stressed unconscious suicidal motivations in various single accidents. Nevertheless, refutation of such theory was demonstrated through experimental studies. We selected 30 single-car accident drivers who had been admitted to emergency departments and then hospitalized for an average period of 10 days. We administered the Reason for Living Inventory (RFL) and investigated their attitudes toward suicide. We also matched these patients with a control group of drivers who had never had a car accident. Results showed that single-car accident drivers were not exposed to a higher overall suicidal risk, though they reported a higher risk on the RFL Survival and Coping Beliefs subscale and often expressed tiredness of being alive. These patients had experienced more life events than controls. We conclude that, although suicide risk was low in our patients, they were engaged in looking for a solution to their problems in which the accident played a role in such a process. This behavior has some characteristics of the logic of suicidal individuals.     

Incestuous paternity detected by STR-typing of chorionic villi isolated from archival formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded abortion material using laser microdissection

Microscopic examination of a blood clot expelled by a physically and mentally disabled woman taken to the emergency room because of genital bleeding revealed the presence of chorionic villi encircled by decidua, hemorrhage, and necrosis. In order to identify the father of the product of conception, sections of formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded abortion material were subjected to laser microdissection: DNA extraction from chorionic villi selectively isolated from the surrounding tissues allowed successful STR-typing of fetal cells, which was otherwise prevented by excess maternal DNA. The large number of homozygous genotypes in the fetal profile suggested incestuous paternity. Analysis of reference DNA samples from male relatives excluded the woman's father, paternal grandfather, and maternal grandfather, whereas the obligate paternal alleles of the fetus were constantly present in the genotypes of the woman's brother, clearly demonstrating brother-sister incest (probability of paternity > 99.99999%).     

Three-dimensional surface topography acquisition and analysis for firearm identification

In the last decade, computer-based systems for the comparison of microscopic firearms evidence have been the subject of considerable research work because of their expected capability of supporting the firearms examiner through the automated analysis of large amounts of evidence. The Integrated Ballistics Identification System, which is based on a two-dimensional representation of the specimen surface, has been widely adopted in forensic laboratories worldwide. More recently, some attempts to develop systems based on three-dimensional (3D) representations of the specimen surface have been made, both in the literature and as industrial products, such as BulletTRAX-3D, but fundamental limitations in achieving fully automated identification remain. This work analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of a 3D-based approach by proposing an approach and a prototype system for firearms evidence comparison that is based on the acquisition and analysis of the 3D surface topography of specimens, with particular reference to cartridge cases. The concept of 3D virtual comparison microscope is introduced, whose purpose is not to provide fully automated identification, but to show how the availability of 3D shape information can provide a whole new set of verification means, some of them being described and discussed in this work, specifically, visual enhancement tools and quantitative measurement of shape properties, for supporting, not replacing, the firearm examiner in reaching the final decision.     

Sexual abuse of vulnerable young and old men

During a 4-year period, aggregated data from Adult Protective Services case files in Virginia revealed 17 cases of sexually abused young, middle-age, and old men. The most common types of sexual abuse across age groups involved instances of sexualized kissing and fondling and unwelcome sexual interest in the individual men's bodies. The majority of alleged perpetrators were male; they typically were similar in age to the men and resided in the same residential facility. In none of the cases was the alleged perpetrator prosecuted. Only two of the men continued to be at risk of further sexual abuse by the alleged perpetrator. Implications of these data for future research and practice include a need for studies that focus on differences between male and female victims, especially concerning investigations and interventions, and for training on reporting and intervention for facilities and agencies and organizations working with victims and alleged perpetrators.     

Jails and Public Health Service Delivery and Empirical Knowledge: The Impact of Jail Population “Flow”

Time/flow is a decisive variable when proposing public health interventions in jail populations and settings. The present paper argues that jail flow affects the types of public health interventions achievable in ways not acknowledged generally by public health/medical researchers. The paper explores how public health interventions vary among jail populations in terms of “flow” and how they are affected by a “period” effect. Interventions that will be effective and reach a substantial portion of the jail population are dependent upon the point in the jail processing process. In turn, the variables that affect the speed of population flow through the jail setting also influence who will be served by public health interventions.