How to lose a majority: the competition in single–member districts

Abstract Few observers expected that the 1966 elections in Italy would yield a clear–cut outcome. Even fewer people expected that, after the disastrous results of the previous elections, the centre–left coalition would be able to gain a majority of seats in both branches of Parliament. Yet this is precisely what happened on 21 April 1996. This article tries to explain the comeback of the 1994 losers by focusing on three factors which have changed the electoral balance between the two major coalitions in the single–member districts. The first factor was the ability of the centre–left coalition (Ulivo–RC) to broaden its range while its major rival (the Polo) lost key allies. The result has been a more competitive stand of centre–left candidates, particularly in the North. The Polo lost the support of the Lega Nord and suffered the split of the Movimento Sociale on its right. These defections, along with others, led to the loss of a considerable number of seats. Finally, the Polo also suffered from the defection of a considerable number of its voters who voted for one of the parties of the centre–right coalition in the proportional arena, but refused to vote for the Polo candidate in the single–member districts. We conclude by suggesting a number of hypotheses that could explain this split–ticket phenomenon.     

Political Fragmentation and Fiscal Outcomes

In this paper we develop the analysis ofthe effects on political fragmentation onfiscal policy in a number of ways. Weanalyze three kinds of fragmentation: sizeand control, institutional and over timefragmentation. In doing so we introduce anumber of new variables that allow us tolook at this issue in a broader way. At thesame time we have tackled somemethodological problems that affectedprevious analyses, using a panel of 19 OECDcountries over 1975–1995. Overall we findrelatively poor evidence in favor of sizeand over time fragmentation, and moreevidence of institutional and controlfragmentation.     

Privatization in Argentina: The implications for corruption

The article analyzes the privatization program carried out under the Carlos Menem administration in Argentina between 1989 and 1995. It shows how, on many occasions, the divestiture of government-owned assets was often carried out within a very weak legal framework which, in turn, opened windows of opportunities for corrupt behavior and collusive practices involving high ranking government officials and private corporations. Based on their findings, the authors stress the crucial role that transparency plays for effective results to take place after government selloffs. Indeed, the Argentine case shows that there is a strong correlation between the legal and regulatory problems that often arise in the aftermath of state divestitures and privatizations that have been carried out hastily and under a cloud of corruption allegations.     

Price-wage dynamics in a transition economy: The case of Poland

In this paper we analyse the wage-price relationship of an economy in transition characterized by important structural changes. It is known (see Perron, 1989) that structural breaks in stationary time series can induce apparent unit roots. The stationarity analysis of the series employed in the present model is conducted jointly with the assumption that the breakpoint location is unknown. We follow a testing procedure recently proposed by Zivot and Andrews (1992). Cointegration analysis of wages and prices in the presence of structural breaks finds empirical evidence in favour of two cointegrating vectors involving prices and wages. Our analysis focuses on the different structural behaviour of the price-wage dynamic relationship in the short and long term; we also demonstrate the relative importance of import prices as a source of wage-price fluctuations.     

Letting the good times roll: A theory of voter inference and experimental evidence

This paper examines inference and attribution in a simple and ubiquitous strategic situation: a voter is faced with discerning whether a leader worked on his or her behalf after observing an informative, but noisy signal about the leader's performance. We characterize perfect Bayesian equilibria, quantal response equilibria (QRE), and provide a simple model of a heuristic-based approach, referred to as strategic naivete, within a wide class of such environments. We also discuss experiments conducted to examine human behavior within such an environment. While it is clear that the observed behavior is inconsistent with perfect Bayesian equilibrium, distinguishing between QRE and strategic naivete will require further work. We conclude with a discussion of the broader implications of probabilistic and/or heuristic-based attribution processes for electoral politics and political economy.     

Frontal sinus accuracy in identification as measured by false positives in kin groups

The aims of this study were to verify if frontal sinuses can uniquely identify individuals belonging to family groups using Cameriere methods and to test if kinship can affect the proportion of erroneous identifications. For this purpose, we compared the proportion of false-positive identifications in a sample of 99 individuals within 20 families with a control sample of 98 other individuals without kinship. The results show that the combined use of SOR and the Yoshino code number allows personal identification with a small probability of false positives (p < 10(-6)), even when kinship is taken into account. The present research confirms the importance of studying anthropological frameworks for identification, which leads to reliable methods and allows for both quick and economic procedures.     

Age estimation in children by measurement of carpals and epiphyses of radius and ulna and open apices in teeth: a pilot study

Estimation of skeletal age using radiographic images is widely used in assessing biological growth in clinical and auxological studies. The most frequently used areas for age estimation in children and adolescents are tooth and wrist/hand, both giving good results with only a low level of radiation. This pilot study of a sample of 150 Italian children and adolescents aged between 5 and 15 years focused on analyzing the possible applications of the proportion of carpal area (Ca) and teeth mineralization as a criterion of age estimation. The regression model, describing age as a linear function of gender (g), the ratio between carpal bones area and carpal area (Bo/Ca) and the measurement of open apices, yielded the following equation [Formula in text]. The model explained 93% of the total variance (R(2)=0.93), the median of the absolute values of residuals (observed age minus predicted age) was 0.465 years, with an inter-quartile range (IQR) equalling 0.529 years, and a standard error of estimate of 0.73 years.     

Before the and of the World(s): Peter Fitzpatrick and the (Inter)national Supplement

Law and Critique - In this article, I argue that Peter Fitzpatrick provides a unique contribution to international studies, most especially to contemporary interdisciplinary studies of...     

Democracy and the limits of political realism

ABSTRACT

This article explores the recent resurgence of realism in the political sciences, questioning its relevance for democratic theory. Starting from a critical review of recent works in the field, the article calls into question the relevance of empirical investigations of political reality for normative theorizing, and contends that some of the normative conclusions advanced in this literature are not warranted. More precisely, the article questions the reliability of studies of political behavior and of political opinion as a sound basis on which to draw normative inferences about democratic legitimacy. It contends that the kind of epistemic realism their authors promote cannot deliver what it promises. The article concludes by proposing an alternative interpretation of the democratic principle as a practical postulate of political reason that reconciles empirical evidence about political behavior with the classical interpretation of democratic legitimacy.