美国选举安全问题：以2016年和2020年总统大选为例

2016年美国总统大选暴露了长期存在于该国选举体系中的风险,\"选举安全\"迅速成为当代美国国家安全与国土安全领域的重要议题。美国选举安全涉及网络安全、社会安全、政治安全与军事安全,体现出\"复合安全问题\"的特质。美国联邦与各州政府试图从降低关键基础设施风险、重建选民信任、减少部门壁垒以及填补机制缺失四个层面入手,系统性化解存在于选举系统的各类安全威胁。2020年美国大选期间,原有选举安全风险得到一定程度的缓解,但美国国家安全体制及文化与其选举安全体系的运行逻辑之间仍存在多层矛盾,特别是美国选举体系的产业市场与创新之间的矛盾、国家安全与\"言论自由\"之间的矛盾、\"全政府\"与\"地方权\"之间的矛盾、\"网络自由\"与\"网络主权\"之间的矛盾。这些矛盾会长期存在,将使利益攸关方不断发生龃龉,阻碍相关政策深入推进,最终导致美国在选举安全治理上将一直面临难以克服的困境。     

武装组织治理制度与反叛成功

当前武装组织治理制度建设成为内战研究的重点。武装组织治理制度是武装组织对其控制区域和民众管理的相应制度与规则体系。以反叛成功为分析对象,通过系统评估武装组织治理制度建设对其内战中获得冲突优势的影响,可以看到,武装组织的反叛成功并不直接由武装组织治理制度决定,而是取决于武装组织治理制度在内部与外部产生的效果。在内部维度,武装组织治理制度需要取得良好的相对治理绩效;在外部维度,武装组织治理制度需要一个有利的国际战略环境并可对其进行塑造。而武装组织治理制度并不能确保相应效果的实现。通过混合研究的模式对以上观点进行检验:在定量研究方面,通过两个不同层次的数据库对于武装组织治理制度与反叛成功的关系进行检验,发现武装组织治理制度与反叛成功之间无直接的联系;在案例比较研究方面,通过两个具体武装组织的实践案例(阿富汗塔利班和\"伊斯兰国\"组织)进行分析,可以发现武装组织治理制度与反叛成功之间的关系并不确定,因此并不存在简单的正向促进关系。     

2030年可持续发展议程下“人的安全”及其治理

2030年可持续发展议程作为一项新的全球发展计划,其目标是构建免于恐惧和暴力的和平、公正、包容的社会,其核心是消除全球贫困与促进包容性发展,包括消除贫困、饥饿以及应对气候变化等内容。该议程的主体内容体现了联合国所倡导的“人的安全”理念,这一理念强调各种威胁的相互关联性,人的安全和人的发展是同一事物相辅相成的,这种治理观要求广泛借助联合国系统,并且顾及地方、国家、区域和国际范围内各级公私部门行为体的特点和资源,拓展一种由各种利益攸关方组成的综合框架,其内容涉及粮食安全、气候安全、环境安全、社会安全、反恐、移民等重要的传统与非传统安全议题。其中,气候变化、资源消耗、南北差距等问题是可持续发展难以实现的重要动因。上述安全议程同时体现了各种广泛的经济、社会和环境关联性。因此,建构全球“人的安全”治理机制需以联合国为核心,并形成多层治理、建构广泛的国际伙伴关系,以实现联合国所倡议的全球可持续和平愿景。     

理解当代中国的安全哲学

通过分析安全主体在安全政治中的思维逻辑和行为方式,可以抽象出其所信奉的安全哲学。以当代中国的安全哲学为例,自改革开放以来,基于自身关于和平与发展是当今时代主题的战略判断,中国提出与之相匹配和呼应的新安全观,并且分为互信、互利、平等、协作的新安全观,以及共同、综合、合作、可持续的新安全观两个阶段。同时,中国所主张的新安全观与旧安全观在政治基础、安全结构、安全战略、争端因应、和平保障五个方面形成鲜明对比。以此为线索,当代中国安全哲学的具体内涵可以被理解和概括为一体安全、兼容安全和发展安全,倡导树立忧患意识与发扬斗争精神。当然,当代中国的安全哲学还面临包括启动成本、维持成本和机会成本在内的成本问题,包括不对称问题和道德风险问题在内的行动问题,以及包括安全感问题、实践转化及其效力问题和他者问题在内的竞争力问题等现实困境和理论困难,这也是当代中国的安全外交需要作答和完成的理论命题与实践课题。     

When Do We Think About Detection? Structural Opportunity and Taxpaying Behavior

Past studies have generally found that perceptions of the likelihood of formal and informal sanctions have lower explanatory power of noncompliance with laws than do internalized norms. Using data from two telephone surveys, we examined a situational characteristic, structural opportunity, that may prod individuals to think about the likelihood of detection from the Internal Revenue Service for underreporting income. Structural opportunity is the degree to which an individual's economic or social situation provides ways to avoid detection. Individuals with high structural opportunity perceived a lower likelihood of IRS detection and indicated that they were less likely to feel guilty if they engaged in tax cheating. Our data also suggested that some individuals with high structural opportunity may be in social networks which condone tax cheating. As expected, structural opportunity provided a condition under which individuals took into consideration the perceived likelihood of formal and informal detection in formulating intentions to engage in tax cheating. Our findings suggest that an examination of the interaction between situational and individual characteristics will provide a more complete understanding of decisions to engage in illegal behavior. Implications for deterrence theory are discussed.     

How the West Perceives China＇s Developing Country Status

With the rise of China＇s position in the international political and economic fields, the West began to question China＇s developing country status, the wrong perception of the West lies primarily in the following aspects： first, the vagueness of the concept of ＂developing countries＂ and the tendency towards narrowing the notion; second, the western countries are pressing China to shoulder more international responsibilities in so doing.     

The Evolution and Prospects of the International Climate Change Regime

The United Nations Climate Change Conference was held in Bali,Indonesia in December 2007, formally launching the post-Kyoto negotiations. After hard discussions, the parties finally agreed on the Bali Roadmap, promising to have further negotiations and maintain and improve the international climate change regime centered on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change （UNFCCC） and the Kyoto Protocol. However, the scientificity, rationality and effectiveness of the regime are constantly questioned. Very few countries can fulfill standard emissions. Neither Japan or Canada nor most European Union countries are able to fulfill the goals of emissions reduction on schedule. The question of how much responsibility the rapidly growing developing countries should undertake is increasingly standing out. Yet although the regime is greatly challenged, it is still the only relatively complete framework in terms of structure and functions that international climate cooperation can rely on. This regime will continue to play a fundamental and irreplaceable role in the more and more complicated international climate negotiations.     

试论竞争性与非竞争性二元结构的高校科研资助体系

本文从理论和政策实践两个维度,探讨了以高校为对象的竞争性与非竞争性二元结构的政府科研资助体系。从理论上说,政府的资助要同时满足国家、高校、科学家三个层面的需求,单一的竞争性模式难以完成这个任务,必须引入非竞争性的资助模式作为资助机制的补充。中央高校基本科研业务费在实践上开启了二元结构的资助模式,对高校的发展将产生深远的影响。二元结构的资助体系尚需时间探索和磨合,现有非竞争性模式在资助比例、资助对象、评价体系,资源配置等问题上还有探讨的余地。     

China＇s Economic Relations with

Over the past several years, some terms, such as the ＂Asian Century , the ＂rise of Asia＂ and the ＂rise of China and India,have become popular in international society. For some international observers, these terms simply reflect a global tendency; but for Asian people, they are more like visions. As members of Asia, China and South Asian countries have a responsibility to make these visions into realities, and these countries are trying their utmost to do so.