Counter-insurgency strategy, the PCP-Sendero Luminoso and the civil war in Peru, 1980–1996

Abstract— This paper examines the main trends occurring in the counter-insurgency campaign waged since 1980 by the Peruvian state against the Partido Comunista del Perú-Sendero Luminoso. The argument is structured around the counter-insurgency model advocated by Robert Thompson, which is employed to illustrate how and why the Peruvian state was losing the civil war in the 1980s and has registered a far greater degree of success in the 1990s.     

中美新型大国关系构建:理想与现实

由于缺乏互信、霸权心态和文化差异,美国对于"新型大国关系"理念的态度发生了微妙的变化。中国的和平发展与美国霸权战略存在着结构性的矛盾,这是两国构建新型大国关系面临的重大挑战。它主要包括四个方面:美国维护霸权与新兴大国中国快速上升之间的矛盾;中美在国际体系中的地位与主张的差异;美国追求绝对安全与中国维护日益扩展的安全利益之间的矛盾;未来中美不同发展模式的竞争会进一步凸显。中美"新型大国关系"的构建实际上有低、中、高三种不同的目标诉求。尽管中美构建"新型大国关系"的道路并不平坦,但已经具备了一定的起步条件。我们有理由相信,只要保持战略耐心,加强合作,管控分歧,经过长期艰苦的努力和探索,中美之间避免"修昔底德陷阱",进而建立起良性互动的大国关系还是完全可能的。     

Punctuated equilibrium in the energy regime complex

The concept of a regime complex has proved fruitful to a burgeoning literature in international relations, but it has also opened up new questions about how and why they develop over time. This article describes the history of the energy regime complex as it has changed over the past 40 years, and interprets this history in light of an interpretive framework of the sources of institutional change. One of its principal contributions is to highlight what Stephen Krasner referred to as a pattern of “punctuated equilibrium” reflecting both periods of stasis and periods of innovation, as opposed to a gradual process of change. We show that the timing of innovation depends on dissatisfaction and shocks and that the nature of innovation—that is, whether it is path-dependent or de novo—depends on interest homogeneity among major actors. This paper is the first to demonstrate the empirical applicability of the punctuated equilibrium concept to international regime complexes, and contributes to the eventual development of a dynamic theory of change in regime complexes.     

论当前中国和平维护南海权益的国际环境

2010年以来,在美国高调介入南海地区事务以及越南推动南海问题多边化与外部化政策的影响下,东盟对南海问题的影响日趋增强,主要南海权益争端国家对中国的态度趋向强硬。南海问题的发展趋势表明,南海争端矛盾的尖锐化、问题解决机制的多边化、区域外强国介入的常态化已经成为中国和平维护南海权益不得不面对的国际环境。而美国与东盟提出的多边谈判和尽早协商通过《南海地区行为准则》的建议短期内无益于问题的解决。从容易解决的争端下手,通过双边谈判首先解决某些具体争端,逐渐消解南海问题的复杂性是中国应对当前南海问题复杂国际因素、和平维护南海权益的必要之举。     

美国国家安全认知的新视阈：人工智能与国家安全

人工智能作为一种革命性技术,正在从根本上变革国际社会的发展进程及方式。面对这一发展趋势,美国已将人工智能提升到国家安全的高度。人工智能对美国国家安全的影响主要存在于三个方面:首先,人工智能是影响和塑造未来美国国家安全的核心变量。人工智能能够优化美国在国际政治格局中的力量配比,弥合并纠正美国社会内部的分裂和失序状况,并助推美国军事实力实现“跨越式”发展。其次,有效克服人工智能的负面效应是确保未来美国国家安全的关键。人工智能可能引发诸多社会和道德问题,其固有的缺陷也将增加战争决策的风险成本,还可能增加武装冲突的频率和强度。最后,美国强调中国人工智能的快速发展对未来美国国家安全构成严重“威胁”。中美在人工智能领域的竞争已无法避免,美国认为中国正在试图“挑战”美国在高新技术领域的领导地位;为应对美国在人工智能领域对华遏制政策,中国应制定和形成人工智能研发以及应用规则和规范;通过制度化协调与合作来规制中美关系,努力避免“科技冷战”的发生。     

The impact and clash of ideologies: Sino‐US relations from a historical perspective

Sino‐US relations over the last 100 years have been heavily affected by the ideological and cultural traditions of both sides; but the impact of ideas on each other has by no means been an even interaction. At the turn of the century when China and the US encountered each other, their destinies took opposite trajectories. While the US saw its dream of national greatness fulfilled with the continuous rise of its national power, China witnessed the sharp downfall from the peak of its self‐perception as the great central kingdom. Ever since then, all progressive intellectuals and reformers took inspiration from western ideas of democracy and freedom, while struggling at the same time against oppression and exploitation by western powers. These two aspects constitute the basic aspirations of the Chinese nation as a whole, which was summed up as ‘anti‐feudalism and anti‐imperialism’. One of the basic urges of Americans of all sorts in dealing with China throughout the years was to influence, educate and change China to its like. However, in front of Chinese revolutionary movments with democratic rights as part of their aims, the US government policies more than often favored the conservative or reactionary rulers. Meanwhile, the development of China takes its own course beyond the control of the US. Yet, under different circumstances, neither side could help placing hopes on the other. As for rulers of different Chinese adminstrations, they wavered between seeking American support in China's economic development and diplomacy on the one hand, and fear and resentment of American cultural influence on the other. Anti‐communism entered the US foreign policy thinking ever since the Russian Revolution. But US relations with the Chinese Communist Party have not been hostile all the way through but have undergone twists and turns. The period of best relationship between the US and the PRC took place in the 1980s and underwent a sharp turn after the events of 1989. Leaving aside other factors, the age‐long cultural paradigm of unrealistic hopes on each other, hence drastic disappointment, played a certain role. At present, The mentality of the bulk of Chinese including young students have also undergone a great change from the pre‐1989 period. The admiration for the US has receded and a certain degree of resentment of American pressure on China is on the rise. The pursuit of a strong and prosperous China remains the common and deep‐rooted national aspiration prevailing among Chinese of all ages and social strata and in this they identify themselves more with the government vs. foreign pressure, whatever their views on other subjects. The ideological aspect of difficulties in Sino‐US relations is not likely to go away in the foreseeable future and much wisdom is needed to handle it properly.     

Investing in international security: rising powers and organizational choices

How do rising powers choose to allocate their finite resources among the multiple global and regional security organizations? Building on the literatures on forum shopping and rising powers, we argue that the different organizational investment choices of rising powers are explained by varying regional ideational affinities. Organizational settings have ideational foundations that can look very different from region to region. We argue that regional ideational affinity leads rising powers to invest in regional rather than global organizations. However, if the ideational composition of the region is highly diverse, global organizations are a better vehicle to accommodate rising powers’ emergent ambitions. To demonstrate our argument, we examine the choices of Brazil and South Africa in terms of their material and ideational investments in regional and global organizations.