霸权的逻辑：美国亚太安全战略的多边转向

二战后,美国在亚太地区构筑起双边联盟体系,但近年来对于加强多边安全合作更为积极。美国近几届政府在亚太安全战略方面作出了重大调整,从奥巴马政府到拜登政府都在推动双边合作转向多边合作,而为何发生这一转变值得探讨。美国在权力优势明显时,倾向于采取双边合作;当美国权力优势缩小时,更加重视多边合作,其安全合作形式是接近于联盟还是相对松散的安全合作,则取决于外部威胁性质和内部分歧大小。美国亚太安全合作形式的调整取决于中美实力差距、外部威胁变化和成员国分歧,多边形式可以更大范围地进行国际动员,最大程度地维护自身的霸权地位。美国在亚太地区的多边安全合作拥有稳固的合作基础、灵活的多边形式和共同的身份认同,有助于美国调动战略资源和联合应对共同关注的威胁。亚太多边安全合作增强了美国的安全动员能力,冲击了亚太地区秩序,给中国带来较大的安全压力。但不同合作机制也面临合作程度不一、成员战略分歧和合作议题分散的影响,合作进程存在着不确定性。     

Sex,gender, and promotion in executive office: Cabinet careers in the world of Westminster

This article provides the first analysis of gendered promotion issues for cabinet ministers using most-similar systems design for three “Westminster-style” governments: Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. Using individual-level data and controlling for biographical, institutional, and country effects we find, in common with earlier literature, that women are more likely to be given less prestigious cabinet posts and be assigned to “feminine” portfolio. Using both sequence and event history analysis, we see the careers of men and women starkly diverge. We find that women are less likely to be promoted than men but find no relationship between prestigious portfolio and promotion. However, feminine portfolio assignments decrease the promotion prospects for women yet increase them for men.     

安倍政府修宪对亚太安全的影响

修改和平宪法是安倍晋三右倾政治的核心。安倍政府推动修宪,有着长期积累的、复杂的远期背景,即历史、社会、法律根源,这些社会根源长期根植于二战以后的日本社会。近期背景包括社会、国际和安倍右翼政权执政。其中领导者个人因素也起了推波助澜的作用。安倍认为提振经济并非易事,只有树立修宪的旗帜,才能使自己执政时间更长。经过国内外多层博弈之后,安倍顽固地坚持修宪路线。修宪的核心目标是要删除宪法第九条,获得对外交战权,建立国防军,改变战后国际秩序,成为不受任何束缚的、全能的政治、经济和军事大国。为此,安倍政府不断进行舆论准备、政策准备和组织准备。如果修宪成功,日本将拥有国防军、交战权,并施行"积极和平主义",将成为一个强势的日本、危险的日本,在客观效果上将带来亚太地区安全上的某些不确定性,甚至可能引发地区动荡和军备竞赛。但是,在安倍执政期内,很难实现修宪的目标,其成功的概率只有40%。不过,即使安倍政府推动的修宪不能成功,自其执政以来到现在所推动的修宪,也已经给亚太地区安全带来了消极负面的影响,引起了地区国家之间的猜忌和关系紧张,也导致这些国家在心理上加强了对日本的戒备,同时推动了东亚地区实际军备竞赛的出现。     

Post-conflict justice in divided democracies: the 1984 anti-Sikh riots in India

Abstract

Official figures claim that almost 3000 people were killed, and many more injured or displaced, in four days of rioting aimed at the Sikh population of Delhi in late October and early November 1984 following the assassination of Indira Gandhi. This article analyses the efforts made to address the human rights violations that occurred. It argues that as a divided democracy, India has struggled to do justice to the victims, despite multiple commissions of inquiry, compensation schemes and a prime ministerial apology. It argues that this has occurred not simply because of challenges commonly faced by democracies dealing with similar incidents, but also because of the particular problems faced in a context in which we see continuity of rule by a political elite allegedly implicated in the abuse and in which there is acute concern for the survival of a fragile divided polity.     

Why was apparent evidence ignored? The delayed relaxation of China's birth control

The ideal of evidence-based policy making (EBPM) may be hindered by delayed policy response to disclosed evidence. This article adopts Allison's three-lens decision-making framework to highlight technical, organizational, and political causes of delayed policy responses to apparent evidence. The study uses China's birth control policy as a case to examine the lag of policy adjustments. Although ample supply of evidence suggested earlier relaxation of China's one-child policy, major adjustments only happened after 2013 and failed to achieve significant results. The study indicates that a politics-informed EBPM approach may better position the role of evidence in policy processes by taking into consideration the unavoidable influences of institutions and politics.     

Breaking Down the Military Ban

<正>Japan’s decision to allow aid to support foreign military raises security concerns in East Asia Japan’s cabinet on February 10 adopted a foreign aid charter stating for the first time that its official development assistance(ODA)program can be used to support foreign armed forces.The newly enforced Development Cooperation Charter,previously known as the ODA Charter,said military aid is al owed to be used in non-combat operations     

International Relations Studies in the USSR/Russia: Is there a Russian National School of IR Studies?

This article discusses the development of Soviet/Russian international relations (IR) studies starting from the end of Second World War until the present. It reveals that Soviet IR studies were based on a mixture of realism and Marxism–Leninism, with realism predominating. It was a very important feature of the Soviet understanding of IR, and it continues to have a strong influence even now on both the study and practice of IR. The author then analyses barriers to the formation of a national school in IR in the Soviet Union. The contemporary state of Russian IR studies is also discussed. The article demonstrates how political changes in the country led to a transformation of Russian IR studies (with the emergence of new IR institutions, new journals, and new universities in and outside Moscow). Influences on Russian IR studies from different national schools (American, British, and French) are also touched upon.