中东伊斯兰力量掌权前景分析

1979年伊朗伊斯兰革命成功后,中东出现了伊斯兰力量夺权的浪潮。总体来看,伊斯兰组织采取了四种策略,即政变、恐怖袭击、内战或者革命以及参加民主选举。由于各国执政者对军队的严密控制,除苏丹这个特例外,政变从未成功。恐怖袭击虽能破坏社会秩序,但无法动摇政权的根基。伊朗革命具有极强的特殊性,别国无法成功复制。而大多数中东国家中央政府相对强大,不具备发生内战的条件。因此,在中东国家实行政治改革后,参加民主选举成为获取权力最为现实可行的方式。在此情况下,越来越多的伊斯兰组织将会放弃暴力夺权的方式,淡化意识形态的色彩,与其他世俗政治派别一起公平竞争国家权力。     

发展中国家对现代海洋法发展的贡献

海洋法是国际法中新兴而又古老的法律部门,在20世纪30年代以前,只有少数国家能够在各个方面利用和开发海洋,因此,海洋法就成了他们掠夺资源、行使海洋霸权的工具。20世纪30年代以后,尤其是二战结束之后,随着广大发展中国家利用和开发海洋的能力和意识的不断增强,提出了许多顺应潮流的海洋法理论。为了使这些理论得以落实,广大发展中国家联合起来同少数发达国家展开了激烈的斗争,从而为现代海洋法的发展做出了重大贡献。     

国外政府公共服务的做法、经验教训与启示

政府公共服务问题是一个历史性和世界性的重要课题 ,也是发挥政府作用、履行政府职能的核心问题。许多国家非常重视这个问题 ,并且采取了一系列的措施 ,从法律上、制度上、政策上、财力投入上予以保证 ,不断提高公共服务的水平和公共产品的质量。借鉴国外政府的做法和经验 ,汲取教训和规避风险 ,对于强化我国政府公共服务职能和建设服务型政府具有积极的意义。     

The World on the Box: International Issues in News and Factual Programmes

A report on factual international programmes shown on UK TV in 2003 reveals that the total of hours broadcast is similar that of previous years. However, there has been a drop in the number of programmes on developing countries, and the definition of 'factual international' covers a misleadingly wide range - including game shows and travel programmes. The amount of developing country coverage on terrestrial TV is the lowest since the measurement began in 1989. Many serious programmes on developing countries are now shown exclusively on the new BBC digital channels. It appears that ITV is no longer fulfilling its public service remit to broadcast programmes covering 'matters of international significance and interest'. The proportion of foreign coverage in television news increased in 2003 across all bulletins, as a result of the Iraq war.     

Risk management for targeting customs controls in developing countries: a risky venture for revenue performance?

Customs authorities in developing countries are often reluctant to forget systematic inspections for fear of risking revenue loss. Such physical inspections however, impede rather than facilitate trade. Control selectivity is therefore a key issue in customs administration reform. This paper shows how a sophisticated risk management method can facilitate trade by automatically and rationally selecting transactions, with the end result of actually enhancing revenue performance. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trends and mechanisms of corruption in South Korea

Corruption remains one of the key obstacles to democratization and good governance. Given the nature of the subject, corruption is notoriously difficult to study. International comparisons and rankings of good governance such as the World Bank World Governance Indicators, the Bertelsmann Sustainable Governance Index, or Transparency International's Global Corruption Index are very useful for providing the big picture on corruption. To understand trends and mechanisms of corruption, however, it is necessary to conduct case studies on both successful and failed cases of anti-corruption policies. This paper investigates the successes and challenges of the fight against corruption in South Korea since the beginning of democratization in 1987. The investigation shows that Korea has generally been successful in controlling corruption. The paper argues that the remaining problems can be largely explained by the legacy of authoritarian rule and the undermining of state autonomy through the concentration of economic power.     

“Double transformations:” nation formation and democratization in interwar East Central Europe

Following the collapse of empires and the subsequent founding of self-determined nation-states, East Central Europe experienced a turning point after World War I. The new states had to transform themselves from branches of a multi-ethnic empire to independent nation-states, as well as from a system of monarchy to democracy at the same time. We argue that one cannot really understand why democracy failed in almost all East Central European states after World War I if one does not take into account the extreme challenges of this “double transformation” consisting of the interactions of the two tightly interwoven processes of nation formation and democratization. Therefore, we deem it necessary to develop a broader research program that addresses the complex interlacement of these two fundamental transformations of politics and society.     

地区安全治理的未来:走向亚洲协调

作者首次提出了"亚洲协调"的概念,讨论了亚洲协调对未来亚洲及太平洋地区安全治理的必要性和长远性。尽管最早的主要国家之间协调(concert of powers)的理论与实践是19世纪的、欧洲的,但是,关于主要国家之间协调(不仅是大国协调)的一般理论却同样可以运用在解决21世纪的亚洲(以及太平洋)的严峻安全挑战和困境上。这些挑战和困境在未来可能会进一步演化为严重的大国之间的对抗甚至冲突。更重要的是,亚洲协调将注定会阻止战争、实现长期和平及维持本地区的经济活力。也就是说,如果亚洲协调明智地和有效地建立并运作起来,到2079年,亚洲以及太平洋将拥有一百年的和平,如同欧洲在1815-1914年拥有的百年和平。从1979年到现在,亚洲地区已经享受了接近四十年的和平。在过去二十多年建立起来的地区或者跨地区的论坛、会议、组织和制度等,反映了治理亚洲地区的权力转移的企图和努力;尽管这些安排相互重叠、尚未彼此兼容,甚至相互竞争,但我们完全可以把它们当做未来亚洲协调的基础。虽然目前的地区安全治理仍然由美国及其同盟体系占据主导地位,但美国也不得不重视复杂的安全地区主义。有不少人建议美国应该以亚洲协调作为未来解决与中国关系的方案。中国已经为建立在经济发展基础上的亚洲和平做出重大贡献。中国已与美国建立"新型大国关系"回应美国的"转向亚洲"。中国在亚洲协调中的地位是中心的和关键的。     

MAINTAINING A UNITARY STATE: COUNTER-TERRORISM,SEPARATISM, AND EXTREMISM IN XINJIANG AND CHINA

This essay reviews the history of Uighur related terrorism in Xinjiang as well as elsewhere in China and discusses the political motivations and effectiveness of the Chinese government in suppressing terrorism. The essay assesses both the motivations of the Uighurs engaged in terrorism, as well as the motivations for counter terrorist by the Chinese authorities. A key objective of the essay is to determine what are the political and other reasons that drive the Chinese government’s counter terrorism strategy and tactics and whether these have been effective or counter-productive. The essay assesses the counter terrorism strategy of the Chinese government in Xinjiang Province and across China, the political motivations for the strategy, the impact and success or otherwise. The essay discusses if the government is combatting terrorism, or separatism, or extremism, the confusion of these terms, and whether this has had any impact on the effectiveness of counter terrorism.     

朝贡体系下古代东亚秩序形成与维系的内在逻辑——批判地借鉴英国学派的分析方法

古代东亚秩序的形成与维系，同历史悠久的朝贡体系有着直接的关系。因此，要有效揭示古代东亚秩序的内在逻辑，应当批判地借鉴以历史主义见长的英国学派的分析方法，探讨朝贡体系的运行机制和内在本质。在古代，中国与朝鲜长时段的朝贡体系实质上是一种由中国主导并以其特有文化为基础、周边诸政权普遍认可和积极参与的特殊国际制度。就中国而言，完全独立的政治体制、自给自足的经济结构、等级制的世界观，使其对外部的需求仅限于其他政权对其至高无上地位的承认及其对相关制度安排的服从。而对周边诸政权来说，只有与实力超强的中国建立朝贡关系，它们才能获得合法性和安全保障，并取得与中国贸易的机会，从而实现生存与发展两大目标。由此可以得出如下结论：在缺乏文化共识的前提下，由地区强国主导，可以促成某种功能性的国际制度，使地区秩序得以维护，并在交往过程中反向促成文化认同。这一结论修正了英国学派关于共有文化与国际制度的关系的观点。