Crime and arrests: An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) approach

Various theoretical perspectives suggest that marginal changes in the quantity of crime and arrests are related to one another. Unfortunately, they provide little guidance as to the amount of time that is required for these effects to be realized. In this paper, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time-series modeling techniques, which necessitate making minima! assumptions concerning the lag structure one expects to find, are utilized to examine the crime-arrest relationship. The bivariate ARIMA analyses of monthly crime and arrest data for Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Oklahoma, for robbery, burglary, larceny, and auto theft reveal little evidence of a lagged crime-arrest relationship.     

Weapons as political symbolism: the role of US tactical nuclear weapons in Europe

This study evaluates the role of tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) for NATO today. Historically, TNWs fulfill five objectives. First, they provide a deterrent by denial capability. Second, TNWs serve to deter TNWs by other countries. Third, as the most ‘useable’ of nuclear weapons, they offer militaries solutions to a small target set of hardened targets. Fourth, they bridge the interface between nuclear and conventional forces, maintaining linkage up the ladder of escalation. Fifth, they serve as a powerful political symbol of an extended deterrent commitment. While the perception is that their utility for NATO in plausible European contingencies is low, we argue that there is variation in the political and military roles of TNWs. We submit that, in general, the first role has lost its significance but the other objectives remain relevant to NATO's present political circumstances, especially as a symbol of the transatlantic relationship and as a safeguard against Russian belligerence. Accordingly, TNWs remain a significant part of NATO's capabilities and should remain deployed in Europe.     

论新形式下网络犯罪的特征与对策

随着计算机网络技术的飞速发展,以互联网为主体的包括通信网、广播电视传输覆盖网在内的信息网络的日益普及,网络犯罪已成为当今社会的一种新型犯罪形式,并且,日益猖獗。它对国家和个人的政治、经济、生命财产安全和精神等方面带来了极大的危害,引起了社会各界的广泛关注。本文对网络犯罪的特征、网络犯罪的起因逐一进行分析,并提出有针对性的应对策略。     

网络寻衅滋事的理解与适用

网络寻衅滋事是新的司法解释确认的寻衅滋事罪在网络领域的表现形式.针对寻衅滋事罪,司法机关分别在2013年7月和9月发布了两个不同的解释,其相互之间存在并列关系而非取代关系;将网络寻衅滋事侵犯的法益一概界定为公共场所秩序具有不合理性;以网络为手段的寻衅滋事与在网络上进行的寻衅滋事的举证焦点和举证难度不同.     

Cyber asset in judicial discourses: a socio-semiotic interpretation

Issues concerning cyber asset in cyberspace have intrigued the legislators, the judicial practitioners, the netizens, and even the onlookers in real world; simultaneously, academia is discussing the disputes aroused by this intangible object. However, various studies in the past refined the discussions in domains of law but the refinement fails to clarify the cyber-asset issues and to resolve the disputes. Therefore, a better understanding of what “cyber asset” is can be achieved by exploring cyber asset in the judicial discourses from a socio-semiotic perspective. In this study, judicial discourses are tantamount to the semiotic resource. Then, incorporating in a generic model of judicial discourses, we examine (1) how cyber asset as a sign has been framed by agents of the judicial institution of the People’s Republic of China; (2) how the judicial institution justified their framing; and (3) whether any temporal change in the semiotic system of cyber asset took place. Furthermore, by applying the five questions introduced by Van Leeuwen, we examine why the quandaries of cyber asset are aroused. In conclusion, we propose that the cyber-asset disputes can hardly be resolved unless joint efforts are made by the legislature and the judiciary of the People’s Republic of China.     

After Sarajevo: Explaining the Blank Check

This paper uses an incomplete information game model to describe and explain the so-called blank check issued to Austria by Germany in early July 1914. It asks why Germany would cede control of an important aspect of its foreign policy to another lesser power. The derived explanation is consistent not only with the actual beliefs of German and Austrian leaders but also with an equilibrium prediction of the game model. The issue of whether unconditional German support of Austria constituted either a necessary or a sufficient condition for the outbreak of major power war the next month is also addressed.     

Critical Periods and Regime Type: Integrating Power Cycle Theory with the Democratic Peace Hypothesis

The critical question whether or not detente is a prologue to peace between the superpowers is seldom confronted with scientific rigour. The authors explore the hidden developmental set of assumptions which are built into the mainstream western view of the relations between deterence and detente and proceed to extrapolate these assumptions mathematically further. The results of the exercise suggest that detente will eventually lead to a stable peace but not before an indeterminate (probably long drawn out) process of rhythmical oscillation between several periods of detente and several periods of cold war.     

“Opportunity” and “willingness’ as ordering concepts in the study of war

The peace through trade hypothesis receives extensive support from a large empirical literature. However, extant research does not isolate whether this relationship holds for states that have fought in the past, or whether its influence following armed disputes is dependent upon the ways in which states settle their conflicts. Additionally, although recent research finds that imposed settlements are more pacifying than other forms of political settlement, these studies tend not to isolate factors associated with variation in the stability of imposed settlements. In this article, we examine how settlements condition the influence of trade on conflict recurrence, both to overcome a limitation in extant studies of trade and conflict, which tend to ignore the way states settle prior disputes, and to further an understanding of how post-conflict state interaction varies by (and within) settlement type. Looking at dyadic trade and recurrent conflict from 1885 to 2000, we find that imposed settlements foster a pacifying effect of trade, while negotiated settlements and failures to reach settlement lead to relationships in which trade has crosscutting effects on the stability of peace, resulting in an overall null effect of trade on conflict recurrence.     

试析韩国的政治粉丝社团现象

以特定政治人为核心聚合起来的粉丝社团是韩国政党政治的新现象,在近十年的发展中对推动韩国政党政治发展发挥了重要作用。政治粉丝社团中,文化共享型与个人追随型社团政治色彩相对淡薄,而政党支援型、运动支援型等政治倾向型社团有着强烈的政治色彩,发挥着类政党的作用。年轻人的政治心理、政党有意推动、轰动效应、政治偏好、市民社会的发展是政治粉丝社团的成因。在政治生活中,这些社团发挥着宣传工具、党内制衡、代言工具和政治后备军的作用。同时,粉丝社团在发挥着政治"造星"功用的同时,也因过度竞争和论功行赏等试图影响政治的消极面而备受质疑。