Foot Patrol in Violent Crime Hot Spots: The Longitudinal Impact of Deterrence and Posttreatment Effects of Displacement

This study revisited the Philadelphia Foot Patrol Experiment and explored the longitudinal deterrent effects of foot patrol in violent crime hot spots using Sherman's (1990) concepts of initial and residual deterrence decay as a theoretical framework. It also explored whether the displacement uncovered during the initial evaluation decayed after the experiment ended. Multilevel growth curve models revealed that beats staffed for 22 weeks had a decaying deterrent effect during the course of the experiment, whereas those staffed for 12 weeks did not. None of the beats had residual deterrence effects relative to the control areas. The displacement uncovered had decayed during the 3 months after the experiment, and it is theoretically plausible that previously displaced offenders returned to the original target areas causing inverse displacement. These results are discussed in the context of Durlauf and Nagin's (2011) recent proposal that prison sentences should be shortened, mandatory minimum statutes repealed, and the cost savings generated by these policy changes shifted into policing budgets to convey more effectively the certainty of detection. It is concluded that if Durlauf and Nagin's proposal is to succeed, then more holistic policing strategies would likely be necessary. Foot patrol as a specific policing tactic seems to fit nicely into a variety of policing paradigms, and suggestions for incorporating them to move beyond strictly enforcement‐based responses are presented.     

Strategic integrated communication: An alternative perspective of integrated marketing communication?

Abstract

In spite of the increased emphasis being placed on integrated marketing communication (IMC), limited attempts have been made to critically analyse existing viewpoints, the evolution of the concept and its application. The research problem of this article is based on this limited mindset, which has arguably created a problem in understanding IMC as a process and in the integration of actions, which appear to be superficial in most cases. The main objective here is to contribute to these viewpoints by addressing the problem through an analysis of existing literature, to stimulate much-needed necessary debate on this phenomenon and advance IMC thinking, which is increasingly being challenged from the perspective of the emerging paradigm of strategic communication. This is done through a combined categorical, theoretical and integrated communicative perspective. The author highlights the need to approach IMC thinking from a strategic and corporate brand perspective, which could help engender dramatically changing expectations and demands across organisations, for a clear understanding of IMC practice and theory. Subsequently, taking an alternative re-orientated strategic perspective, based on all current approaches, is proposed into what is termed ‘strategic integrated communication’ (SIC). The focus in SIC is on the strategic intent of the organisation to enhance strategic, integrated communication and knowledge management of information through creative media strategies and environmental scanning. All of this should be based on trust, loyalty, integrity and credibility, to maintain valuable long-term stakeholder relationships.     

实现城乡发展一体化、解决“三农”问题的根本指导思想——十八大以来习近平关于推进城乡发展一体化问题的论述

中共十八大之后,习近平总书记高度重视"三农"问题,提出了推进城乡发展一体化、解决"三农"问题的一系列理论观点和政策措施,是中国共产党解决"三农"问题的根本指导思想,对于实现全面建成小康社会、实现中华民族伟大复兴具有十分重要的意义。     

Comparing the performance of IBIS and BulletTRAX-3D technology using bullets fired through 10 consecutively rifled barrels

This study evaluates the abilities of the Integrated Ballistics Identification System (IBIS) and BulletTRAX-3D electronic imaging systems to identify bullets fired by the same weapon in a large database of images. Ten consecutively rifled handgun barrels were test fired to obtain reference sample and known match sample pairs for upload onto both bullet acquisition systems. Both copper-jacketed and lead bullets were uploaded, to account for variations in the manner in which markings are reproduced on the different metal compositions. Ranked correlation lists were examined and evaluated. For copper-jacketed bullet correlations, both IBIS and BulletTRAX-3D identified all reference samples to their known matches within the top 10 positions. For lead bullets, BulletTRAX-3D identified all reference samples to their known match in the top 10 positions while IBIS identified only 30%. For inter composition comparisons, BulletTRAX-3D was more successful than IBIS, identifying 100% of reference samples to their known match in the top 20 for copper-jacketed to lead comparisons and 90% for lead to copper-jacketed comparisons. These results suggest that BulletTRAX-3D is more effective than IBIS in the analysis of a wider range of bullet types and it was also found to produce images of superior quality.     

A Selection of Empirical Socio-Economic Research with Respect to the Functioning of Legal Rules and Institutions in Belgium and the Netherlands

In this paper some studies with respect to empirical socio-economic research which has been undertaken in Belgium and the Netherlands concerning the functioning of legal rules and institutions are discussed. The paper focuses on the domains of criminal law, civil procedure, liability and insurance. The paper argues that contrary to the overwhelming economic literature on liability and insurance, the empirical results in that domain are poor. More research is undertaken in the area of criminal law and apparently it is overwhelming in the area of civil procedure. The latter studies are, however, mainly undertaken by socio-legal scholars and less by economists. The general conclusion of the empirical studies discussed seems to be that while the empirical literature on the effect of changes in the decision making environment on rational actions in the legal system is rich and provocative, there is much less empirical testing of the effects of legal rules as such on allocational outcomes. The paper argues that much more effort should be devoted to the latter issue.     

美国对华拒止性威慑战略论析

拒止性威慑的思想源远流长,作为一种军事战略的拒止性威慑具有广泛性、实时性和受挑战性三个主要特点。拒止性威慑的思路相比惩罚性威慑更具操作性,在信息化战争时代也更具优势。美国战略学界认为,在西太平洋地区中美实力日渐接近的情况下,对华拒止性威慑战略是较优选项。美国对华拒止性威慑战略兴于特朗普政府时期,其主要特点是加强军事系统弹性能力建设与发展新战区导弹防御体系。拜登政府则在“一体化威慑”框架下应用对华拒止性威慑,发展深度防御能力。美国对拒止性威慑战略的理解与应用已经突破了传统意义上偏重防御的拒止性威慑模式。该战略的目标是联合盟友阻止中国在西太平洋地区的快速军事行动,维持和巩固在该地区的军事主导权。虽然美国对华拒止性威慑战略的实践受到了诸多内外因素制约,但其给中美带来的负面影响仍在不断加深,并对地区安全构成巨大挑战。中国需要主动培塑有利于军力发展的良好环境,发展新技术装备,应对美国对华拒止性威慑战略实践造成的军事胁迫,降低各类战略风险。     

进攻性联盟、模糊性威慑与AUKUS的战略性扩张

2021年9月15日,美国、英国和澳大利亚建立三边安全伙伴关系(AUKUS)。美英澳三国基于追求权力最大化、改变既有国际秩序的扩张性动机,构建进攻性联盟。美国企图巩固印太地区霸权;英国试图提升印太地区影响力,推动“全球英国”构想;澳大利亚希图扩张在印太地区的威慑力,强化南太平洋区域强国地位。AUKUS的威慑功能具有模糊性,主要体现在威慑对象及触发条件的模糊性。其模糊性威慑主要包括模糊性威慑的信号功能、震慑功能、作战功能、信息和情报共享功能、军工合作功能。AUKUS通过模糊性威慑功能实现美国在印太地区的战略性扩张;威胁中国国家安全和阻挠中国统一进程;诱使印度深化与三国战略合作;引发东盟国家意见分歧;加速欧盟防务自主进程;削弱国际核不扩散机制,恶化地区安全形势,对全球及地区安全局势产生消极影响。     

新时代大中小学劳动教育一体化构建的意义、现状及实施路径

中国特色社会主义进入新时代后,大量学校的劳动教育取得了丰硕成果,但由于劳动素养培育 的渐进性和具身性,我国劳动教育目前存在学段间系统性欠缺、协同性不足等问题。由于时空壁垒和学段目标 的限制,各学段劳动教育一体化在没有科学规划之前,难以全面落实。本研究以教育系统论为根本依据,针对 我国大中小学劳动教育在结构上逐级延伸且次第整合、在知识和技能上有所偏重却又有序耦合的特点,建议各 大中小学劳动教育始终契合学生本身的内在需求和身心发展的规律,围绕各学段学生生活和学习的真实情境, 在劳动知识传授和实践教学中以学生的个体基础为前提,递进式地提高学生的劳动素养,从而可以有效打破劳 动教育的时空壁垒。同时,通过纵向进阶、横向协作的方式,打造区域性学校共同体,全面绘好劳动教育一体 化的经纬图。     

论互联网社交在法治社会建设中的功能

作为一个同法治国家、法治政府相区别的概念,法治社会命题致力于实现社会生活的秩序化、法治化,并尤其强调社会力量对国家法治建设的推动作用,试图借助多元社会主体的参与来型构法治发展的动力基础。准确认识当下的社会状况,充分挖掘现有的社会力量,是开展法治社会建设的正确路径。在当代,互联网信息技术的纵深发展日益改变着现代社会的交往模式,并塑造出互联网社交这一新型的社会关系形态。互联网社交的出现与发展孕育了以网络为介质的社会力量,使社会逐渐获取了同国家对话并参与国家法治建设的能力。互联网社交在法治社会建设中的功能可以从四个向度获得理解:互联网社交缔造着网络公共空间的公民品格;互联网社交孕育了网络社会的自治能力;互联网社交构成了民主参与的"非正式"渠道;互联网社交提供了权力制约的社会手段。