Japanese Labour Unions and Nuclear Energy: A Historical Analysis of Their Ideologies and Worldviews

This article analyses how diverse stances toward nuclear energy were produced and reproduced among Japanese labour unions from the mid-1960s to the mid-1980s, and how these stances of the formative period influenced the subsequent development of inter-union politics before and after the Fukushima nuclear plant disaster in 2011, based on content analysis of union bulletins and other materials of pro- and anti-nuclear energy unions. This article asks three research questions: (i) what factors contributed to pro- or anti-nuclear energy stances of labour unions?; (ii) what elements constituted or framed unions’ arguments on the issue of nuclear energy?; and (iii) what impact did these stances and arguments formed in the early period have on the subsequent development of inter-union politics over nuclear energy, especially in the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear disaster? The paper shows union ideologies and institutional integration were the factors influencing unions’ stances on nuclear energy. It also analyses the worldviews of pro- and anti-nuclear energy unions based on the three policy styles of technological enthusiasts, moralists and cost-benefiters. The Fukushima disaster reinforced the previously formed division of union ideologies, but considerably weakened the discourse of technological enthusiasm stressed by pro-nuclear energy unions.     

从朝鲜二度核试验透视《不扩散核武器条约》的缺陷

继2006年10月9日朝鲜宣布进行了首次核试验后,2009年5月25日,朝鲜突然宣布"成功进行第二次核试验",不计后果地挑战国际社会。朝核危机彰显了《不扩散核武器条约》的不足。虽然该条约在实现全面彻底核裁军、维护世界和平与安全的国际法制进程中具有划时代的意义,但条约也存在某些概念模糊不清、对非核武器缔约国的歧视、退出条款限制不够、国际原子能机构的核查权限等问题。要真正实现全面彻底防核扩散的目标,国际社会需要努力地对条约做出合理的修订和完善,倡导以条约为基础的多边合作。     

The North Korea Problem: Perspectives on the Nuclear Debate,Economic Reforms and Beyond

ABSTRACT

Despite a plethora of research on North Korea, understanding and managing the challenges posed by the country have long been complicated with no simple solution to put an end to this decades-long security and economic predicament on the Korean Peninsula. With the potential for international conflict, attention must be given to the converging messages emerging from the scholarly works reviewed in this article: Glyn Ford, Talking to North Korea: Ending the Nuclear Standoff, Van Jackson, On the Brink: Trump, Kim, and the Threat of Nuclear War and William Overholt’s collection North Korea: Peace? Nuclear War? These works speak to the need to: take seriously the risk of nuclear war; consider the connectedness of the North’s decades-long security and economic reform dilemmas; and to acknowledge that the mistrust that is deeply rooted on all sides must be mitigated to bring peace. These books are published at a critical juncture of increased tensions following a highly publicised but remarkably short-lived effort at a breakthrough on the Korean nuclear issue, Pyongyang’s rapidly evolving security posture and its perennial domestic challenges. Each of these volumes provides valuable insights on these challenges for North Korea and internationally.     

Sanction experience and sanction behavior: an analysis of Chinese perception and behavior on economic sanctions

This paper seeks to explore the interrelationship between a country's sanction experience, perception, and behavior. The analysis focuses on the case of China, which is one of very few countries that have not only undergone a number of significant economic sanctions but also have experience of imposing economic sanctions upon others. All historical cases of major economic sanctions against China, as well as cases of Chinese economic sanctions against other countries, are examined. A comparison between China's sanction experience and sanction behavior points to a connection between the two: all strategic sanctions in history against China failed, and correspondingly, China rarely employed strategic sanctions against others. In parallel, most tactical sanctions against China were successful, and coincidentally, China has been much more open to using or threatening to use tactical sanctions in its own practice. The findings of this analysis offer an opportunity for Western policy practitioners to reconsider their approach of engaging China in order to improve future coordination and cooperation in multilateral economic sanctions.     

从东北振兴迈向东北亚大同:试论东北振兴计划与“中韩港”合作

全球化时代的东北振兴不仅具有重要的中国国内经济发展意义,还有重大的国际和地区战略意义,"中韩港"三边合作,对于从东北振兴迈向东北亚大同,具有举足轻重的作用。自上个世纪90年代以来,朝核问题成为影响东北亚和平稳定的主要因素,在六方会谈框架下,中韩双方在维护朝鲜半岛以及东北亚局势的稳定方面积累了合作的经验,两国的经济联系也日益密切。在2008年金融危机背景下,中韩经济均受到不同程度的冲击,中国需要通过拉动内需防止经济发展势头中断,韩国和中国香港特区也需要寻找新的增长空间,而东北振兴计划能够为解决上述矛盾找到出路。中国东部跨越、中部崛起、西部开发都离不开东西和谐、南北合作。"中韩港"在振兴东北问题上的合作如果奏效,有利于吸引更多的国际资本流向该地区,从而为该地区的稳定繁荣打下进一步的基础,为通向东北亚大同创造必要的条件。     

东北亚国家安全体系:从双边困境到多边合作的安全路径分析

作为经典国际安全理论的安全困境理论无法充分说明后冷战时代东北亚区域国家安全状态。无论从体系引导型安全困境亦或国家引导型安全困境,都难以找到东北亚各国安全战略差异产生的根本原因。东北亚各国间的安全互动已经形成了一个超越安全困境并以美国为核心的地区国家安全体系。通过对东北亚国家安全体系结构和流动性安全要素的考察可以发现,各国安全战略的不同与其在国家安全体系结构中的位置和对流动性安全要素的控制能力密切相关。这有助于进一步探寻东北亚国家间安全关系从双边困境到多边合作的路径。     

朝鲜半岛安全问题及中国与有关各方的合作策略

自朝鲜核试验到最近的"天安"号事件,朝鲜半岛及东北亚安全形势发生重大变化。问题的解决涉及多方甚至整个国际社会。中国应妥善处理中美关系,加强中、日、韩三国间的互信、共识与合作,加强与俄罗斯及国际社会的沟通与合作。在坚决促朝弃核,推进半岛无核化的同时以经济外交为杠杆促朝融入国际社会,在寻求外交谈判解决半岛危机的同时,做好应对半岛可能出现的突发事件的准备。     

Empires built on sand: On the fundamental implausibility of reactor safety assessments and the implications for nuclear regulation

This paper explores the nature of expert knowledge-claims made about catastrophic reactor accidents and the processes through which they are produced. Using the contested approval of the AP1000 reactor by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) as a case study and drawing on insights from the Science and Technology Studies (STS) literature, it finds that the epistemological foundations of safety assessments are counterintuitively distinct from most engineering endeavors. As a result, it argues, those assessments (and thus their authority) are widely misconstrued by publics and policymakers. This misconstrual, it concludes, has far-reaching implications for nuclear policy, and it outlines how scholars, policymakers, and others might build on a revised understanding of expert reactor assessments to differently frame, and address, a range of questions pertaining to the risks and governance of atomic energy.     

Credible Empowerment and Deliberative Participation: A Comparative Study of Two Nuclear Energy Policy Deliberation Cases in Korea

What factors make deliberative participation of public policy effective? Why, in some cases, are participants in deliberation more motivated than others, and reach their final judgment in a timely manner, based on systematic processes of opinion gathering and consensus building? By comparing and investigating two recent cases of public participation in energy policy deliberation in Korea, we argue that deliberative participation is more effective when the prospect that the outcome of their activities might be accepted by decision makers is high. The two cases, the public deliberation committee (PDC) on the nuclear waste issue which operated from 2013 to 2015, and the PDC on the nuclear power plant construction issue which operated in 2017, show that they went through similar courses of action, and used similar methods for deliberation. However, while the 2017 PDC has produced clear‐cut policy recommendations, and the government have accepted these, the 2013 PDC failed to reach conclusions on the given critical issues. We argue that the difference in the results is caused by credible empowerment along with two other factors––the sensitivity of issues and the learning effect. Participants of deliberation tend to judge the possibility of the government’s acceptance of their opinions based on either the government’s direct announcement or its inclusiveness in the past policy history. If governments are willing to consult the public to increase legitimacy and transparency, they should send explicit signals to the public on its inclusiveness in the short term, and also should increase credibility in the long term.     

AUKUS核潜艇合作如何冲击国际核不扩散规范体系？

核潜艇合作是美英澳三边安全伙伴关系(AUKUS)的核心内容。关于这一核潜艇合作项目是否有悖国际核不扩散规范体系,国际社会存在尖锐的争论。既有研究主要探讨三边安全伙伴关系核潜艇合作与国际核不扩散规范的合规问题,但忽视了其对正在成长中的国际规范的冲击。从规范演化的角度看,违反规范的国家影响力越大,对既有规范的打击越沉重,规范退化的可能性越大。规范的正式程度越低,规范越脆弱,受到冲击后规范退化甚至衰亡的可能性也越大。美英澳核潜艇合作最主要的影响在于,三国利用其独特的影响力破坏了成长中的核不扩散规范。长期以来,由于已有的核潜艇合作活动都没有利用国际核不扩散规范体系中的军用核动力装置漏洞,使得规避利用该漏洞已经成为一个惯例或成长中的规范。然而,由于美英澳的核潜艇合作涉及大量武器级高浓缩铀的转让,且高调引用了军用核动力装置漏洞,这将对军用核动力装置转让、军民两用物项管制和核“突破时间”这三项成长中的核不扩散规范产生严重冲击。