核事故、能源结构调整与国际气候合作

福岛核事故将对各国能源结构调整和国际气候合作产生重大影响。从短中期来看,部分国家将对核能产业实施紧缩政策,化石能源比重可能增加,在国际气候合作中作出积极减排承诺的意愿也将降低,国际气候合作可能继续陷于僵局之中。在可预见的未来,人类需要通过追求核能安全来维护能源安全和气候安全。     

The social bases of nuclear energy policies in Europe: Ideology,proximity, belief updating and attitudes to risk

This article analyses the social bases underpinning the widely different trajectories of nuclear energy policies across Western European countries. Employing a set of surveys carried out in the last thirty years, it examines the conditional effects of ideology and geographical proximity to a nuclear power plant on attitudes toward nuclear energy, as well as the long‐ and short‐term dynamics of belief updating after the occurrence of major accidents. Results highlight how proximity can strengthen, weaken or have no effect on the ideological component of these attitudes. Moreover, the publics of most countries with experience in nuclear energy display the traits of Bayesian dynamics of belief updating, especially in the vicinity of a plant. The article also shows the fairly exceptional traits of French public opinion. In conclusion, the broad social constraints within which governments operate, across time and space, shed light on the different policy trajectories of European countries.     

Going non-nuclear in the nuclear alliance: the Danish experience in NATO

Danish nuclear policy is at a crossroads. Looking back, Denmark's relationship to nuclear technology has been a difficult balancing act for successive governments, trying to soothe an anti-nuclear domestic sentiment on one side and the membership of a nuclear military alliance on the other. This history produced an enduring double approach to nuclear policy by Copenhagen throughout the cold war. Looking ahead, this history is of particular relevance as Denmark and Greenland are considering lifting their twenty-five-year ban on mining radioactive elements and allowing the production of Greenland's uranium. With Greenland's large reserves potentially catapulting this otherwise non-nuclear and non-mining kingdom into one of the world's top suppliers of uranium, the policy debate has to include a look back at Denmark's relationship to nuclear technology, for both peaceful and military purposes.     

A Dutch revolt? The salience of the nonstrategic nuclear weapons issue in Dutch politics

Transparency, international credibility, democratic accountability, a new realism in defense expenditures – these basic policy goals fit awkwardly with the current deployment of nonstrategic nuclear weapons (NSNW) on Dutch territory. Most parties in the Netherlands want the NSNW removed. Some are even willing to challenge the idea that only consensus among all 28 NATO Allies can lead to the removal of the NSNW. The new Dutch minister of foreign affairs for example, Frans Timmermans, has a long track record of calling for an end to the deployment of US nuclear weapons on Dutch territory. Without NATO consent if necessary. His appointment fits with the political shift that we have seen over the past few years in Dutch politics. This article looks at the political rationale behind that shift: who are the main political actors involved? How have domestic and international pressures influenced party positions? The article also looks at the possibilities a new Dutch Government has were it to challenge the NATO consensus on NSNW. Would the USA refuse to take the NSNW away? How would NATO react and what could mitigate Allied concerns?     

Transatlantic cooperation,alliance politics and extended deterrence: European perceptions of nuclear weapons

This article discusses the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) debate regarding American nonstrategic nuclear weapons (NSNW) in Europe, given the broad spectrum of views on nuclear issues when comparing individual member states. What is striking is the gap between public attitudes – which are broadly hostile to keeping NSNW in Europe – and elite opinion, which privileges the maintenance of NATO commitments to preserve alliance cohesion. To better understand this tension, this article dissects the elements of extended nuclear deterrence in Europe, addressing the difficulties associated with current nuclear-sharing arrangements. For some NATO states, the alliance's nuclear weapons are a political liability, since nuclear sharing clashes with international disarmament and nonproliferation commitments. For other NATO members, maintaining the status quo is preferable, as long as there is no alliance-wide consensus on the question of NSNW. These debates have been put to rest, for now, with NATO's Deterrence and Defense Posture Review, which reaffirmed the purpose of the alliance's nuclear weapons. However, these divisive debates point to more fundamental issues in alliance management, namely the credibility of American commitments, the sustainability of extended nuclear deterrence in Europe and the inevitable political tensions these questions provoke at the domestic level for NATO allies.     

Northeast Asian Economic Cooperation in Perspective:The Future Has Never Been Brighter

It is easy to become pessimistic about Northeast Asian economic cooperation if one follows the news day-by-day.Progress hasbeen slow,and disappointing setbacks are always sensationalized in the news media,especially those concerning the DPRK.This makesit difficult to believe that major progress in Northeast Asian cooperation is possible.However,I believe that taking a longer-term per-spective on recent events will permit us to see that there really has been considerable progress in advancing conditions that favor NortheastAsian economic cooperation.This makes it possible to assert that,after a year of leadership transitions in 2012,the prospects for furtherprogress have never been better than today.To see this point,I will compare the present situation to what existed at other moments of op-portunity in Northeast Asian economic cooperation.Each of these past moments was the result of certain hopeful developments,but inthe end they produced disappointment.The reasons why can tell us what the obstacles to success have been,and how today some funda-mental conditions have changed to favor Northeast Asian cooperation.If those old precedents and new developments are skillfully utilizedin a new era of policy moderation and stability,they could enlarge the scale and scope of positive Northeast Asian cooperation.translocal economic cooperationNortheast AsiaDPRKnuclear Sunshine PolicySix-Party talks     

苏联核工程初级阶段人才培养研究（1945-1955）

在1945-1955年的初级阶段,苏联核工程面临人才短缺的严重问题.高校成为苏联培养核人才的主要途径.苏联领导层运用高度集权的政治体制和高度集中的计划经济体制,在很短时间内就建立起以莫斯科大学为核心、由17所高校组成的人才培养体系,为苏联核工程输送了大量高级专业人才.除此之外,苏联还通过大专中专、函授教育、短期训练班等方式,为苏联核工程培养中级和基层技术力量.在起步阶段的十年时间里,苏联核工程人才培养体系得以建立,人才短缺的问题基本得到解决.     

Security,Not Defence,Strategic, Not Habit: Restructuring the Political Arrangements for Policy Making on Britain's Role in the World

The Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition government has committed itself to a Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDR) in 2010. The government and the country face very hard choices to bring United Kingdom defence and security policy back from the brink of bankruptcy—both financial and strategic (Gow). To succeed, it must overcome the failings of the past (Chisnall, Dorman, Rees) and take a truly open and radical look at all aspects of policy and process—including the Trident independent nuclear deterrent (Allen), relations with Europe (Witney) and the importance of cyber‐issues in the future security context (Fisher). It must get strategic concepts right to provide flexibility with credibility (Stone). It must deliver ‘what the military wants’: true strategic prioritisation, radical defence acquisition reform, and credible balancing of resources and commitments (Kiszley). The scale of the challenge facing the United Kingdom in—and beyond—the 2010 SDR is why The Political Quarterly convened a workshop early in 2010 involving MPs, practitioners, retired military personnel, journalists, commentators, business people and academics, and publishes these associated papers. Most of all, to overcome the failings of the past, there must be a radical move beyond the welcome first steps of the Cameron–Clegg government to introduce a National Security Council and a National Security Advisor, to reconfigure relationships within government, across departments and with Parliament to have a government figure of accountability and responsibility—a Secretary of State for Security Policy, primus inter pares with other Secretaries of State—to make sense of the questions needing to be asked and answered (Gearson and Gow).     

论戈尔什科夫的国家海上威力论及其现实意义——以海权理论为视角

苏联戈尔什科夫的国家海上威力论是海权理论在冷战期间发展的一个高峰。国家海上威力论认为大洋对人类生活具有非常重要的意义,国家有必要发展自己的海上威力。国家海上威力由海军、运输船队、捕鱼船队、科学考察船队等组成。海军的主要任务是对海作战和对陆打击等等。苏联红海军在国家海上威力论的指导下成为足以与美国海军相抗衡的强大海上武装力量。然而,国家海上威力论存在的缺陷与不足也给苏联的海权发展和海军建设带来了严重的后果,值得海权领域的学者深思。     

面对城市与农村的两难抉择——对河北翟城村分离的核心家庭的考察

本文以中国的社会变迁、家庭变革为背景,通过对河北翟城村的实际考察,揭示出一种特殊的家庭结构形式--分离的核心家庭.它符合人类家庭发展的基本趋势,但受中国这一特殊场域的制约,具体地说是受到中国的制度结构及农民自身理性选择的影响,又呈现出自身的特点.本文试图对这一家庭结构的形成、及它对家庭和社会的影响做一分析和探讨.