同盟安全与防扩散——美国延伸威慑的可信度及其确保机制

冷战以来,美国就始终坚持推行延伸威慑战略,并将其视为最重要的防扩散工具之一。然而,这种基于经验的政策逻辑缺乏系统性的理论支持。获得美国延伸威慑保护的国家或约束自己的核扩散行为,或走上研发核武器的道路,抑或推行两面下注的"核避险"战略。在获得延伸威慑保护与核不扩散行为之间,并未呈现出简单的因果关系。因此,延伸威慑究竟是不是一种有效的防扩散手段以及在何种条件下才能起到防扩散的作用,便是值得深入探讨的问题。在控制外部威胁以及供给侧因素等干扰变量之后,本文发现延伸威慑的可信度是影响受保护国核扩散行为的中间变量。而可信度的变化又与美国和盟友之间建立起来的一系列确保机制相关。确保机制包括口头或书面承诺、前沿部署、核分享以及核磋商这四类措施。不同的确保措施对延伸威慑可信度的影响不同,同时也会对美国在核安全以及受牵连的问题上造成相应的影响。因此,美国及其盟友往往在确保机制的选择上有着不同的利弊偏好。冷战时期,联邦德国和韩国在同时受到外部安全威胁和美国延伸威慑保护的情况下,却采取了不同的核扩散行为,对此延伸威慑可信度及其确保机制理论做出了合理解释。总体上,由于美国与不同盟友所建立的确保机制不尽相同,从而使得延伸威慑的可信度出现差异,并最终导致盟友之间出现不同的核扩散行为。     

Reform of World Financial Order Needs Strategic Thinking

正A new global financial order is essential in the rapidly changing global economy,and we need strategic dialogues and cooperation to reform the current system,international financial experts said at a forum in Beijing."The world today is facing a revolution.It is imperative to construct a new global financial framework and to formulate new rules for the global financial market     

Newspaper Coverage of Three Presidential Campaigns in Chile: Personalisation and Political Strategies

We investigate the evolution of political campaign coverage through a content analysis of the topics highlighted in newspapers' agendas during three presidential elections in Chile. Results show an expected increase in the space allocated to the politicians' private lives (privatisation) by 2009, but no change in the attention given to individual politicians' political traits (political competence). Coverage of candidates' campaign strategies had increased markedly in media agendas by 1999, and by 2009 in politicians' agendas. These changes are consistent with some of the recent transformations of political communication in Western democracies, within the framework of the so‐called ‘mediatisation’ of politics.     

How can European states respond to Russian information warfare? An analytical framework

How can European democratic states respond to Russian information warfare? This article aims to enable and spur systematic research of how democracies can respond to the spread of distorted information as part of information warfare. The article proposes four ideal-type models representing different strategies that democratic governments can employ; blocking, confronting, naturalising and ignoring. Each strategy is illustrated by ways of empirical examples of strategies applied by European states in view of what is regarded as an unwelcome Russian strategic narrative that is spread as part of information warfare. We problematise each strategy and explore reasons for why states choose one strategy over another. We then explore how different strategies might contribute to destabilise or stabilise the security environment and how they resonate with democratic values. Finally, we contribute to theorising on strategic narratives by highlighting that the choice of strategy will influence states in their formation of strategic narratives. We thus further theorising on strategic narratives by highlighting the link between strategies and narratives, thus identifying one central dynamic in how narratives are formed.     

Understanding EU crisis diplomacy in the European neighbourhood: strategic narratives and perceptions of the EU in Ukraine,Israel and Palestine

ABSTRACT

This Special Issue seeks to better understand the role of communication and perception in EU crisis diplomacy. In a recent Special Issue in this journal, Catarina Kinnvall, Ian Manners and Jennifer Mitzen argue that, “?…?the greatest security challenge facing people across Europe is not physical, despite the threats of Putin and ISIS, but is a sense of fear and anxiety over their daily lives” [2018. Introduction to 2018 Special Issue of European Security: “Ontological (in)security in the European Union”. European security, 27 (3), 249–265]. We take an interdisciplinary approach to widen the scope of studies on European security and offer new avenues for further research into how citizens in the EU’s neighbourhood understand the security challenges they face and the role the EU plays in addressing these. Through this, we aim to bring theoretical and methodological innovation to understanding the role of the EU as an external actor.     

China's aggressive ‘periphery diplomacy’ and South Korean perspectives

In this special section, the present article reviews South Korean perspectives on China's ‘periphery diplomacy’ with a focus on Chinese behaviour with respect to the East China Sea maritime territory and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). By analysing research papers published by various Korean research institutions and academic journals, this article demonstrates that most Korean scholars hold that as long as China's growth goes on, the tensions between the US and China are likely to intensify. The article also shows that one of the primary concerns of South Korean scholars lies in the question of how South Korea should respond to changing regional orders and a rising China. The article argues that South Korea's strategic dilemma is reflected in a regional structure in which competition between two great powers has recently forced the periphery to impose bilateral ties on.     

新时期陈云对抵御执政风险问题的战略思考及其当代价值

陈云对抵御执政风险问题的战略思考有其深刻的背景因素,是他总结历史、面对现实、着眼未来综合性认识的成果。陈云对抵御执政风险问题的战略思考包括对党和国家的政治发展、经济发展、民生建设、精神文明建设、党的建设等多方面。这种思考表现出强烈的忧患意识,对我们今天居安思危、拒腐防变具有很强的警示作用;蕴含着深刻的科学理念对我们今天把握规律、安全执政具有重要的指导作用;体现出坚定的理想信念,对我们今天排除干扰、奋勇前行具有巨大的激励作用。     

台湾问题：美国对华政策中的两难议题

台湾问题是困扰中美关系的一大难题。美国基于维护台湾海峡两岸不统不独、不战不和的利益考虑,试图对双方采取平衡交往的双轨政策。但这一政策却因美国国内不同利益团体的作用,选举周期的影响,国际战略格局的变化和海峡两岸的政治角力,不时地受到冲击,发生周期性的变化。美国对华政策的周期摇摆性,不利于维持台海现状。1995-1996年的海峡危机和2003-2004年岛内公投、制宪、正名风潮,与美方未能妥善处理台湾这一难题,给台北发出错误信号就有很大关系。     

解放思想开拓创新奠定“百年女大”发展新基石--《山东女子学院中长期发展战略暨“十三五”事业发展规划》解读与说明

中国需要女子大学，办女子大学是一种优势。“百年女大”是山东女子学院长远发展的愿景，表现为六大战略目标和三个阶段的步骤。“十三五”期间，要着重采取五大行动来实现十大目标，就保障措施而言，尤其需要发挥思想的先导作用，建立强大的师资队伍，培养富有开拓精神的干部队伍。