The evolving profile,qualifications and roles of the senior public affairs officer

Leading a public affairs department or function in North America has become increasingly complex, difficult, and valued in the last decade. The knowledge, skills and abilities (KSAs) to perform this role effectively have undergone a transformation and become reflective of the socio‐political challenges entailed in the fast‐moving, global, information‐intensive economy. The top public affairs officer (PAO) will need to be a strategic thinker who can communicate effectively, have unquestioned integrity, maintain an international perspective, be an effective manager, and have the experience and savvy to navigate the trickiest of public policy processes and structures. These positions can be greatly rewarding for those individuals who are up to the task. Copyright © 2002 Henry Stewart Publications.     

The Structure and Stability of Externalizing and Internalizing Problem Behavior During Early Adolescence

The first aim of this study was to examine the structure of externalizing and internalizing problem behavior during early adolescence. Our second aim was to determine the stability of these problems for boys and for girls over time. A total of 650, 13–14-year-olds filled out (an expanded version of) the Youth Self-Report [YSR; Manual for the Youth Self-Report and 1991 Profile. Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont, Burlington] 2 times with a 1-year interval. By using confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) to test a series of competing models, a hierarchical model provided the best representation of the structure of problem behavior at both Time 1 and Time 2: externalizing and internalizing problem behavior represent distinct aspects but the model also demonstrates the existence of comorbidity at a higher level. This model appeared to be stable over time for both boys and girls. The relative stability of problem behavior was found to be high for boys and girls. Absolute stability for both externalizing and internalizing problems appeared to be higher for boys scoring in the lower range of problem behavior. Senior Researcher, Utrecht University, The Netherlands. Received PhD in social sciences, University of Amsterdam. Major research interests include problem behavior, family relations, and peer relations during adolescence. Full Professor, Utrecht University, The Netherlands. Received PhD in social sciences: child and family studies, from University of Nijmegen. Major research interests include adolescent social development, problem behavior, and family relations during adolescence. Assistant Professor, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Received PhD in psychology, University of Amsterdam. Major research interests include family influence on childhood illness and problem behavior.     

“重要战略机遇期“解读

"重要战略机遇期"概念的提出,体现了第三代领导集体敏锐的政治嗅觉、高超的战略判断力、超人的政治胆识、杰出的领导艺术和坚定的政治决心,是他们面对复杂的国际大势,乘势、权变、借力、顺应规律的智慧结晶.其基本依据是对未来20年国内形势的正确把握和国际形势的科学判断,"重要战略机遇期"到来的转折点则与"9·11"时间密切相连.     

改革是社会主义中国的强国之路——邓小平改革理论探析

改革是邓小平理论最重要的内容,是决定当代中国命运的历史性决策,是新时期我国最鲜明的特征。本文系统探讨分析了邓小平关于我国社会主义改革的必然性、迫切性,改革的对象、目标和性质,以及改革同发展与稳定的关系。这对于深入学习邓小平理论,深化我国改革具有重要的现实意义。     

Assessing Stability and Change in Criminal Offending: A Comparison of Random Effects, Semiparametric, and Fixed Effects Modeling Strategies

An important theoretical problem for criminologists is an explanation forthe robust positive correlation between prior and future criminaloffending. Nagin and Paternoster (1991) have suggested that the correlationcould be due to time-stable population differences in the underlyingproneness to commit crimes (population heterogeneity) and/or thecriminogenic effect that crime has on social bonds, conventionalattachments, and the like (state dependence). Because of data andmeasurement limitations, the disentangling of population heterogeneityand state dependence requires that researchers control for unmeasuredpersistent heterogeneity. Frequently, random effects probit models havebeen employed, which, while user-friendly, make a strong parametricassumption that the unobserved heterogeneity in the population follows anormal distribution. Although semiparametric alternatives to the randomeffects probit model have recently appeared in the literature to avoid thisproblem, in this paper we return to reconsider the fully parametric model. Viasimulation evidence, we first show that the random effects probit modelproduces biased estimates as the departure of heterogeneity from normalitybecomes more substantial. Using the 1958 Philadelphia cohort data, we thencompare the results from a random effects probit model with a semiparametricprobit model and a fixed effects logit model that makes no assumptions aboutthe distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We found that with this dataset all three models converged on the same substantive result—evenafter controlling for unobserved persistent heterogeneity, with models thattreat the unobserved heterogeneity very differently, prior conduct had apronounced effect on subsequent offending. These results are inconsistentwith a model that attributes all of the positive correlation between priorand future offending to differences in criminal propensity. Sinceresearchers will often be completely blind with respect to the tenabilityof the normality assumption, we conclude that different estimationstrategies should be brought to bear on the data.     

对宗族势力与农村稳定的思考

宗族势力虽对农村稳定存在某些负面作用,但从社会宏观层面及纵深角度探析,宗族不仅能满足农民的本体性需求及有利于人际关系的整合,而且还能弥补政府某些功能的不足及制衡农村基层干部的腐败.如把宗族势力视为异己,不仅会增大治理难度,而且会大幅度提高治理成本.     

关于中国警察教育训练的几点新思考——联合国军即美国2011“利比亚战法”的启示

美国2011“利比亚战法”在推进外战与内战的转型过程中,显示了对战略推进、策略分层与作战实施等的超强宏观把握与微观控制能力,警察因被裹胁“随军”并成为战争主体之一而不能游离于战争之外,因此美国的“利比亚战法”应是一道特殊的攻关“动员令”,从战略高度、从宏观层次、从具体实践、从理论发展出发,深入探讨警察这支军事之外的特殊的武装力量,怎样在维护社会稳定、国家稳定和政权稳定中以及在国际斗争的舞台上发挥更大更积极的功能与作用,不仅是时代摆在广大警察教育训练工作者面前的一道课题,也是世界形势和国际斗争发展的客观需要.     

关于可持续发展战略的价值认识

可持续发展战略和模式自问世以来，受到世界各国的普遍关注和研究，这一战略的确立是人类发展史上的一个重要里程碑，对人类走向现代化具有重要价值，也是中国走“全面、协调、可持续发展”道路的必然选择。     

中国特色社会主义文化透视

中国特色社会主义文化作为当代的先进文化,是符合中国国情、体现社会主义时代精神、揭示社会主义本质要求和发展趋势的新文化。它具有实事求是的科学性、鲜明的时代性、浓厚的民族性、广泛的群众性、兼收并蓄的开放性和锐意改革的创新性等特点。新时期,加强中国特色社会主义文化建设是代表先进文化的前进方向,开创中国特色社会主义事业新局面的必然要求,是增强我国综合国力,提升我国国际竞争力,实现中国"和平崛起"国际战略新思维的必然抉择,是促进人的全面发展,实现人的自我解放的必然归宿。     

哈尔滨国际科技城在促进对俄科技合作战略升级中的作用

哈尔滨国际科技城是黑龙江省推进对俄科技合作的重点工程,自2003年5月开工建设以来,对俄科技合作取得初步成效。黑龙江省应该更好地发挥其作用,支持其尽快完善配套设施,抓住机遇,把哈尔滨国际科技城做大做强,以此带动全省对俄科技合作战略升级。