基于大数据的反恐怖预警问题研究

反恐怖预警是防范和打击恐怖主义的重要环节。大数据为反恐怖预警带来了极大便利的同时,也为反恐怖预警提出诸多挑战。比如,软、硬件设施,领导管理体制,相关法规制度还需进一步完善等。对此,必须从反恐怖预警信息的收集、分析、决策和执行四个阶段对上述矛盾加以克服,才能适应大数据时代的客观要求,才能适应反恐怖行动的客观要求。     

政府灾害与风险管理职能及其实现——立基预警视阈

国内学术界对政府职能作了大量且卓有成效的研究,但对政府灾害与风险管理职能的研究尚有较大研究空间。5.12汶川大地震,从一个侧面反映出政府灾害与风险管理职能发挥存在问题,说明政府灾害与风险管理职能有效发挥的规约性因素需要深入分析。紧急状态下政府灾害与风险管理职能有效发挥如何实现,是值得深入研究的课题。     

Is Something Better Than Nothing? The Effect of Short Terms of Mandatory Parole Supervision

This article reports the findings of a quasi-experimental evaluation of a mandatory early parole program. New Jersey’s Statutory Early Release (SER) law required that all inmates, with few exceptions, be released onto parole six months before the expiration of their sentence. SER participants (n = 405) were matched using propensity scores to two groups of similar offenders who left prison in the year prior to the implementation of the SER statute. Comparison groups include former inmates that were released either unconditionally (n = 4,507) or onto standard parole (n = 5,657). At the conclusion of the matching routines, 395 SER-parolee pairs and 394 SER-unconditional release pairs were identified. Outcomes measures, including comparisons of rearrest and reconviction rates, are reported pre and post matching, and at 6-, 12-, and 18-month intervals. Individuals enrolled in the SER program demonstrated significantly reduced arrest rates during the SER supervision period when compared to unconditionally released offenders, though differences do not persist past six months. Offending rates for both SER participants and matched parolees were generally similar, with some significant variation in arrest rates emerging after 12 months.     

Some Thoughts on the Construction of the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road北大核心CSSCISSCI

As an integral component of the ＂One Belt and One Road＂ strategic vision, the construction of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road will reflect the developing path of China＇ s maritime geo-economy with significant polit- ical and diplomatic implications. Although the construction of the new maritime silk road has its？ endogenous logic and justified considerations, it will encounter various challenges and difficulties. In order to achieve the strategic goal of setting up a community？ of common interest and？ destiny with the relative countries, the ＂Maritime Silk Road＂ program has to be advanced cautiously with the principles of wide consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits.     

The verdict in the polls: how government stability is affected by popular support

The idea that the stability of governments is affected by how they are performing in the polls is both intuitive and popular in the literature. When support is low the government might be inclined to replace parties or the prime minister in order to regain support, thus forming a replacement government. Alternatively, a government doing well in the polls might opportunistically try to schedule an early election to capitalise on its favourable prospects. But despite the popularity of the idea, it has thus far not been tested empirically whether government stability is in fact influenced by popular support. This article aims to address this lacuna. Using a relatively new dataset with more than 12,000 unique polls, and recently developed Bayesian models for pooling the polls, it is here shown that government stability is in fact impacted by popular support. Governments display clear signs of electoral opportunism when they are polling well and, conversely, dissolve the government, without calling an election, when polling is bad. The results are strongest when there are few parties in the government, since agreement on the timing for a discretionary termination is easier when fewer players need to agree.     

城市安全不能承受之重与流动人口不能承受之轻——兼论北京市流动人口犯罪预警机制的作用与完善

构建流动人口权益保障体制对于维护城市安全具有重要作用。本文分析了北京市流动人口犯罪的现状与原因,强调理性对待流动人口犯罪的必要性,提出应平等对待流动人口、在控制人口盲目流动的同时应当保障流动人口的基本权益,并发挥犯罪预警机制在预防流动人口犯罪中的作用。     

Heterogeneous effects of adolescent violent victimization on problematic outcomes in early adulthood*

Violent victimization—particularly when it happens to young people—can inflict a wide array of negative consequences across the life course. Nevertheless, some victims are more likely to suffer these consequences than others, and we do not have a very good understanding of why that is. One promising avenue of research is to examine how individuals’ differential risks of being victimized affect the extent to which they experience negative outcomes. By using propensity score matching and data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (N = 8,323), in this study I estimate the heterogeneous effects of adolescent violent victimization on several problematic outcomes in early adulthood (violent and property offending, subsequent violent victimization, depressive symptoms, hard drug use, and low educational attainment). Individuals’ differential risks of adolescent violent victimization are estimated with a host of personal, social, and contextual factors, including prior experiences with crime and violence. The results show that the consequences of adolescent victimization in early adulthood are more pronounced for youth with the lowest risks of being victimized. These findings have important implications for theory, research, and practice, and they emphasize that the consequences of victimization cannot be understood separately from the sources of victimization.     

急性心肌缺血早期细胞膜糖蛋白表达的研究

目的 探测急性心肌缺血早期细胞膜糖蛋白 (凝集素受体 )表达特点。方法 应用免疫组化法（ S－ P法）对 32只 SD大鼠急性心肌缺血早期不同时间心肌细胞膜糖蛋白用 6种凝集素进行探测。结果 心肌缺血 15min时,心肌局部可出现花生凝集素（ PNA）染色阳性,并且随着缺血时间的延长其阳性表达面积明显增加。缺血 2h其表达水平达到高峰 ,呈弥漫性染色阳性,明显高于对照组, 2h后,心肌缺血区域 PNA受体的表达开始出现下降趋势。其它凝集素染色较为分散,尚待进一步研究。结论 心肌缺血,心肌细胞膜 呈现 D－半乳糖链改变。     

Developmental Trajectories and Intentional Actions

The article turns a critical eye on problems arising from use of largesamples and complicated statistics to handle multilevel designs. I arguethat although these have a legitimate role to play in discovering causalrelations, valuable information can be lost or distorted in the processof their use. Exploratory classification and tree diagrams show howtransitional analyses can unpack effects of community, family, priormisbehavior, juvenile delinquency, and incarceration on adult criminalbehavior. The analyses showed that in the worst neighborhoods, disruptivebehavior had little discriminating power with regard to juveniledelinquency or adult crime. They showed also that good family interactionsserve as protection against crime in all types of neighborhoods. ConstructTheory, I suggest, is a way to understand the influences that seem toproduce criminal behavior.     

Youth Mental Health First-Aid: Juvenile Justice Staff Training to Assist Youth with Mental Health Concerns

Many youth in juvenile justice settings meet criteria for a mental health condition. Front line staff need to be able to recognize and respond to their needs, but training is often lacking. Youth Mental Health First Aid (YMHFA) is an 8-hour training for adults without mental health education to recognize and assist distressed youth. This study surveyed 1,279 [State blinded] DJS front-line staff trained in YMHFA. Of 338 returned surveys (26% response), 44% reported using YMHFA skills at work, 56% in preventing a crisis, 25% during crises. Respondents rated YMHFA as significantly improving their responsiveness to distressed young people.