Crises and unpredictability in developing countries

Developing countries have suffered most of the financial crises in the context of the process of economic and financial globalisation. Both current and previous crises have revealed that unpredictability is a feature common to all the episodes which occurred during the process of globalisation. Although certain alarms went off, any of those external financial crises were actually predicted by the advanced methods in use for prediction and country risk analysis. Taking into consideration the information above, the aim of this paper is to check the ability to foresee external financial crises in developing countries of both the country risk index published by Euromoney and the Credit Ratings variable included therein. We have focused on the external financial crises that took place between 1992 and 2011, that is, in a full globalisation era. The results are negative. It appears that neither the index nor the sovereign ratings are able to reflect early enough the vulnerabilities that arise previously to the setting off the crisis episodes. This leads us to conclude that the existing models of country risk have limits. Thus, it would necessary to develop new instruments to measure this risk, considering uncertainty as an essential feature of the current economic and financial environment.     

奥巴马政府监管的行为法经济学分析——“成本收益国家”在“行为时代”的人性化改革

奥巴马政府以行为科学和行为法经济学的成果为科学基础，从完善监管和监管审查，促进国际监管合作，以及减少监管负担三个主要方面进行了政府监管改革。这是对成本收益分析传统的完善和补充，是一种更加符合行为法经济学实证和规范要求的人性化和合理化政府监管模式。     

金融机构破产债权人会议程序之研究

债权人会议作为全体债权人的自治组织,既是企业破产的一种利益平衡器,也是统一债权人意志与行动,保证破产有序进行的自治性团体。金融机构破产是企业破产的一个分支。金融机构本身的特殊性决定了其破产时债权人权利与普通商事企业破产时债权人权利的差异性,同时,债权人的权利内容和权利行使还会受到一定的限制,因此,金融机构破产债权人会议与传统的债权人会议在功能、履职程序、价值目标方面存在冲突。但是,不能因为这种冲突而否定债权人会议的作用及其存在的价值,立法者所应该做的是对其功能、职权和履职程序进行适应性修正。     

The End of Sprawl? Not so Fast

This article takes a careful look at the recent state of sprawl among America’s 178 largest metropolitan areas through the lens of four sets of questions: (a) Measured at the metropolitan level, is sprawl really declining? Is it declining everywhere, or just in selected metropolitan areas? (b) If sprawl is indeed declining, are more compact growth forms on the rise? (c) If sprawl is indeed declining, is it the result of antisprawl land use and development policies? (d) Which metropolitan-level land market, demographic, and economic factors are most associated with changes in sprawl? It concludes that sprawl is indeed declining when measured by average population densities, but that the decline has been much less widespread if measured in terms of population growth in core-area neighborhoods, changing density gradient intercept and slope estimates, and increased employment clustering. In terms of policy, it finds no evidence that local regulatory regimes or growth management programs have had any effect on sprawl, but finds that the consistent administration of local regulatory programs in ways that incentivize infill development and send consistent signals to developers does contribute to reduced sprawl.     

互联网融资创新、风险及其法律规制——以P2P网贷平台为分析视角

互联网金融作为传统金融自发改革、创新的产物,具有传统金融无可比拟的优势,但它既具备金融领域的固有风险,也具有互联网先进技术与传统金融结合而生成的新风险。对于这种风险,应该坚持"非法律规范—行政法规范—刑法规范"的调整位阶,以保护金融创新为监管的出发点。对于致力于信用担保的P2P网贷平台,应该对其资金池引入第三方托管,不应一概以非法吸收公众存款罪取缔。金融创新背景下,对金融管理秩序的垄断性保护失去了其正当性,对于非法吸收公众存款罪的解释,应该以公众财产权益这一法益为指导。     

以绩效预算制度为核心的财政预算交易成本控制研究

财政预算的本质，是社会公众与政府之间围绕预算资金使用和公共产品供给进行的委托代理交易。作为交易，财政预算存在交易成本，即财政预算的运行程序成本。制度经济学认为，交易成本过高会降低交易绩效。那么财政预算的交易成本过高也会降低预算绩效。为了控制财政预算交易成本，应当在预算法中构建一种有效的内部激励机制，保证预算执行主体的本位利益与社会公共利益挂钩，促进预算执行主体自觉地以社会公共利益最大化为目标运用财政资金，即绩效预算法律制度。     

融资犯罪刑法规制路径优化探索

以融资犯罪的整体规范视角分析当前合法、非法或者构成犯罪的民间融资行为,有助于全面把握我国刑法规制各类直接或者间接融资犯罪的规范功能与结构,动态地考察与反思当前融资监管行政法律规范与融资市场机制刑法规范之间的缺位、越位、错位问题。解决融资犯罪刑事控制结构性失衡与紊乱的关键在于:在制度执行上实现直接融资与间接融资市场机制刑法平等保护,在规范适用上实现融资犯罪主观与客观构成要件证明压力分散与均衡。     

银行危机处置过程中的股东权利限制研究

银行危机处置过程中股东权利限制是危机时期社会规制的需要,规制的原因包括维护金融稳定、预防系统性风险的发生、维护存款者的市场信心和预防股东道德风险发生。但股东权利保护是现代企业制度的核心内容,这就在"限制"与"保护"之间形成矛盾,这是银行生存的不同时期,股东行使权利正当性基础的差别造成的。因此,分析银行运行不同时期股东权行使的正当性基础,是论证银行危机处置期股东权利限制必要性的基础,同时,股东权利的限制必然影响到公司治理中利益相关主体间的权利结构平衡,故从法律规制和银行公司治理结构调整两个方面对"矛盾"的协调提出完善的建议。     

Limits of regulatory responsiveness: Democratic credentials of responsive regulation

Responsiveness and accountability constitute the process of democratic representation, reinforcing each other. Responsiveness asks elected representatives to adopt policies ex ante preferred by citizens, while accountability consists of the people's ex post sanctioning of the representatives based on policy outcomes. However, the regulatory literature tends to interpret responsiveness narrowly between a regulator and regulatees: the regulator is responsive to regulatees’ compliance without considering broader public needs and preferences. Democratic regulatory responsiveness requires that the regulator should be responsive to the people, not just regulatees. We address this theoretical gap by pointing out the perils of regulatory capture and advancing John Braithwaite's idea of tripartism as a remedy. We draw out two conditions of democratic regulatory responsiveness from Philip Selznick – comprehensiveness and proactiveness. We then propose overlapping networked responsiveness based on indirect reciprocity among various stakeholders. This mechanism is the key to connecting regulatory responsiveness with accountability.     

Freedom of information in local government: rhetoric or reality?

The aim of this paper is to analyse the level of implementation by Spanish local authorities of the Transparency Act (19/2013), and their voluntary information disclosure in areas where such disclosure is obligatory in other EU countries. We identify the main factors that may influence the implementation of this Act and the self-regulation policies adopted. Our analysis highlights the existence of delays among some local authorities, with notable differences between municipalities with larger and smaller populations, in implementing the Act, and also the fact that many municipalities are committed to achieving transparency, often going beyond minimum legal requirements. Factors such as population size, the political ideology of the governing party and the education level and economic capacity of the population are related to the level of implementation of transparency and self-regulatory policies in this respect by local authorities. We acknowledge that the 2013 Act was still being implemented during the period analysed.