长吉图开发开放先导区的区域引力与产业布局研究

长吉图开发开放先导区的成立,为东北亚的发展带来了新的机遇。虽然长吉图开发开放先导区内存在着两个经济中心,但延图龙地区的经济发展辐射能力明显低于长吉图。经过近十年的发展,使得长吉图的一体化趋势更加明显,该核心区的第二产业实力雄厚,第三产业发展相对落后;而延图龙核心区第二产业与周边地区产业发展存在脱离现象,未能实现优势互补,第三产业发展势头较好,但现阶段的辐射能力不足。因此,必须加大延图龙及珲春市的建设,推进另一个经济中心的快速增长;大力推进长吉图区域的交通建设,促进产业升级及转变产业增长方式。     

应用锁骨薄层CT容积重建影像推算四川汉族身高

目的探讨锁骨薄层CT三维容积重建影像(CT-VRT)在身高推算中的应用价值,以期更新我国西南地区身高推算数据,为鉴定实践提供技术支撑。方法应用300例锁骨薄层CT-VRT影像,测量并计算左侧锁骨长(LCL)、右侧锁骨长(RCL)、双侧锁骨均长(ACL),分析身高与LCL、RCL、ACL相关性及性别差异,建立身高推算线性回归方程,并对所建模型进行回代检验。结果男性、女性ACL和身高的相关系数分别为0.534、0.707;LCL和身高的相关系数分别为0.484、0.680;RCL和身高的相关系数分别为0.523、0.695。分别建立ACL、LCL、RCL男女性身高推算线性回归模型。回代检验示ACL方程男性身高推算平均绝对误差(MAD)为4.48cm,女性MAD为3.51cm;LCL方程男性身高推算MAD为4.60cm,女性MAD为3.64cm;RCL方程男性身高推算MAD为4.49cm,女性MAD为3.59cm。结论建立的推算身高的回归方程具有统计学意义,模型预测精度较高,表明利用薄层CT-VRT影像测量的锁骨可运用于四川汉族人群身高推算研究。但模型R2较小,因此在应用ACL进行身高推算时最好结合其他指标。     

Facilitating Help Seeking Behavior and Referrals for Mental Health Difficulties in School Aged Boys and Girls: A School-Based Intervention

Although the need for early intervention for mental health difficulties is widely acknowledged, few studies have attempted to explicitly increase actual help seeking behavior for mental health difficulties. Students in intervention classrooms received two one-hour, in-class workshops on distress and help seeking and were compared to students in non-intervention classrooms in a 2-level hierarchical model. More frequent help seeking behavior and more mental health referrals were observed among students in the intervention group than among students in the comparison group. Effects were moderated by the level of distress experienced by students, but not by help seeking attitudes, and could not be accounted for by school staff referrals or website utilization. Results showed that help seeking behavior for mental health difficulties and mental health referrals can be increased with only a moderate investment in time, but that benefits of school-based intervention may be greatest among students with specific needs, such as high levels of distress.

气候变化法律应对实证分析——从国际公约到国内法的转化

气候变化问题的全球性决定了构建应对气候变化对策必须集合各领域的通力合作的,法律应对机制是必不可少。以往,我们常常将关注点放在气候变化国际法律制度领域的基本问题研究上,而未真正对气候变化国际法律制度进行认真剖析,找出其目前和未来发展阶段的不足之处;更没有在国际实证分析的基础上,结合我国目前的实际情况,做出完整的法律构架,实现国际法的国内法转化,使气候变化的应对能真正落到实处,毕竟《京都议定书》的实现需要各国知之践行;尽管有必要强调共同但区别原则,但是中国作为负责任的大国,有必要提升“道义责任理念”,从自身内部法律实践做起,为温室气体的减排落实真正尽一份力。     

Estimating the probability of allelic drop-out of STR alleles in forensic genetics

In crime cases with available DNA evidence, the amount of DNA is often sparse due to the setting of the crime. In such cases, allelic drop-out of one or more true alleles in STR typing is possible. We present a statistical model for estimating the per locus and overall probability of allelic drop-out using the results of all STR loci in the case sample as reference. The methodology of logistic regression is appropriate for this analysis, and we demonstrate how to incorporate this in a forensic genetic framework.     

School Safety Strategies and Their Effects on the Occurrence of School-Based Violence in U.S. High Schools: An Exploratory Study

Recent incidents of school-based violence have resulted in the widespread implementation of school safety strategies across the United States. While research on these strategies has grown over the past decade, there is little understanding about their collective influence on indicators of school violence. Using data from the 2007–2008 School Survey on Crime and Safety, the present study explored responses of 936 school officials (N = 936) employed in high schools across the United States. Taking a confirmatory factor analytic approach, strategies were grouped into numerous factors based on their typology. Factor scores were then extracted and used as predictor variables in a negative binomial regression analysis to determine the extent to which types of safety strategies were associated with recorded incidents of school-based violence.     

Sentences and prosecutors’ demands for aggravated drunk driving in Finland

ABSTRACT

Sentences and prosecutors’ demands for aggravated drunk driving are categorised into three classes: The sentence is more lenient than, is compatible with, or is harsher than the prosecutor’s demand. The probability of a sentence falling into one of the three ordered categories is explained by a cumulative logit model. The following circumstances affect the probability of a more lenient or harsher sentence, in decreasing order of importance: driving a truck, facing at least four counts, having a legal assistant, and being present in the trial. The hypothesis that factors known by the prosecutor, at the time of writing the demand, should not systematically affect sentences is refuted. The judges assess circumstances differently than the prosecutors. The prosecutors’ role is nevertheless prominent in the sense that the sentences follow, to a great extent, their demands. Notable gender effects of the actors in the courtroom are found.     

Effectiveness of a risk–need–responsivity‐based treatment program for violent and sexual offenders: Results of a retrospective,quasi‐experimental study

Purpose

Relapse prevention is an important goal in correctional settings. Although there is strong evidence for the effectiveness of certain treatment programs for juvenile offenders, those for adults lack such evidence. This study evaluated the effectiveness of a risk–need–responsivity (RNR)‐based intervention.

Methods

A quasi‐experimental, observational study design and cox regression analysis were used to compare treated violent and sexual offenders (n = 171) with untreated offenders (n = 241).

Results

Both groups were observed for an average of 7.9 years. Recidivism rates of treated offenders (11.7%, n = 20) were similar to those of control offenders (15.8%, n = 38; p = .25). When controlling for confounding variables, the hazard of recidivism in the treatment group was 5.2% lower than that in the control group. Subdividing the treatment group resulted in lower hazard ratios for offenders still in therapy when released and offenders cancelling therapy. However, none of the group differences was statistically significant.

Conclusion

Our results show that control and RNR‐based treatment groups had comparable recidivism rates with a trend towards a positive treatment effect, especially for people in outpatient treatment. However, criminal history, age at the start of follow‐up, and actuarial risk of recidivism were significantly associated with recidivism. Future research needs to apply elaborate methodological approaches to detect robust treatment effects and consider different criteria of treatment effectiveness. Furthermore, the influence of prison climate, motivational factors, intervention quality, and factors supporting the success of outpatient treatment should be considered in future studies of larger offender samples.     

民事举证责任分配规则的回归与超越

现代民事诉讼中纷纭复杂的举证责任分配规则,都渊源于罗马法,前者是对后者的继承与发展。从古罗马法直到今天,实际上只有两条分配原则:一、原告作为主张的肯定者,负有举证责任,被告作为主张的否定者,不负举证责任;二、原告作为主张的肯定者,不负举证责任,被告作为主张的否定者,负有举证责任。两条原则分别适用于不同的诉讼领域。