EXCEL在交通事故分析中的应用

交通安全问题已引起了世界各国的重视,每个国家都在寻求和探索降低交通事故发生率的良策。我国是一个发展中国家,在相当长的一段时间内还会面临着严重的交通安全问题。EXCEL是一种简便、易操作的计算机软件,可以利用EXCEL的数据分析功能,求出道路交通事故中某些推测数据与多因素之间的比例关系,对道路交通事故分析有所帮助。     

An empirical investigation of determinants of corporate social performance using multi-dimensional panel data analysis

An assessment of the determinants of corporate social performance (CSP) in emerging economies is still too fractured. This article contributes to general management literature by developing an empirical model based on the existing theoretical models rooted in neo-institutional theory (legitimacy approach), stakeholders management theory, agency theory, the resource-based view of the firm, slack resources argument, and managerial control theory. A robust, multidimensional, unweighted disclosure index was used to measure CSP. This article provides a methodologically and empirically more rigorous assessment of determinants of CSP compared to previous studies by performing panel data regression analysis on 307 firms for 10 years. The results reveal that the presence of a legal framework, board attributes (board size, board diversity, board interlocking), women on board, ownership pattern, financial performance, firm attributes (size, age, leverage), and industry characteristics affect CSP significantly. These findings provide very important clues to design pragmatic strategies to improve CSP.     

T-S连续模糊系统的一些新的稳定性问题研究

针对T-S连续模糊系统的稳定性和镇定问题,本文重点总结了T-S模糊系统的几个稳定性条件,从理论上比较他们所用方法的保守性和可实现性,并运用Matlab工具通过仿真实验,说明各个结论之间的有效性区别.     

Stay cool or get hot? An applied primer for using temperature in forensic entomological case work

The reliable reconstruction of the temperature conditions at a crime scene is still a great challenge in forensic-entomological case work. Despite many published standards and guidelines for reconstructing temperature, and studies analysing the influence of various factors on the accuracy on such reconstructions, there are astonishingly many cases in the literature in which the temperature at the place of discovery is not reconstructed at all, i.e. the most common method is using the data of the nearest meteorological weather station without any correlation with on-site data. This study summarizes the state of the art in temperature reconstruction from an entomological point of view and compares the application of generalized additive models (GAMs) and linear regression on the basis of hypothetical death scenarios with various post mortem intervals (PMI) and measurement periods for the correlation between crime scene and weather station. We show that GAMs i.e. analysing the potential delay effect of temperature within a day, are the tools of choice because they give better, i.e. more accurate estimations than linear regression in 95,6% of all analysed cases regardless of the PMI, body discovery site and correlation period. Nevertheless, each case and crime scene is unique and therefore each entomological expertise should discuss the possible strengths and weaknesses of its temperature reconstruction. Even if temperature is not or cannot be reconstructed for various reasons, a comparison of on-site data with those of a meteorological weather station is the minimum forensic experts should do.     

Techniques for evaluating regulatory change

This paper demonstrates the applicability of two empirical techniques—the Heckman two-stage switching regression and the event study methodology—for evaluating regulatory or legislative change relating to companies and in particular to the regulation of company reporting. These techniques measure the impact of regulatory changes once they have happened. They could be used in practice if regulatory changes were subject to a review procedure. The availability of these relatively sophisticated techniques should encourage the quantitative analysis of regulatory changes. Comparisons of effects across member states of the European Union would be interesting but would obviously need care.     

基于R软件单组率Meta分析研究9种中医体质的人群分布

目的 对中国人群中医体质类型分布情况进行系统评价,为9种中医体质类型全国常模的建立提供循证医学证据.方法 在中国知网、万方数据知识服务平台、维普网、PubMed数据库、Cochrane数据库中检索9种中医体质类型流行病学调查的文献,采用R软件单组率Meta分析对9种中医体质类型的构成比进行合并,根据构成比的潜在影响因素的Meta回归分析结果进行亚组分析.结果 共纳入19篇文献,总样本量为175331.Meta分析结果显示,平和质、气虚质、阳虚质、阴虚质、痰湿质、湿热质、血瘀质、气郁质、特禀质的构成比分别为0.29(95％CI:0.23～0.36)、0.15(95％CI:0.13～0.18)、0.15(95％CI:0.13～0.18)、0.07(95％CI:0.05～0.10)、0.09(95％CI:0.07～0.12)、0.08(95％CI:0.06～0.10)、0.04(95％CI:0.03～0.05)、0.06(95％CI:0.05～0.08)、0.03(95％CI:0.02～0.04),"男女性别比"是阴虚质构成比的影响因素,"是否兼夹"是阴虚质、痰湿质、湿热质、血瘀质构成比的影响因素,"地区"是平和质、血瘀质、气郁质、特禀质构成比的影响因素.结论 中国人群平和质比例不足1/3,气虚质、阳虚质是最常见的偏颇体质,地域是人群体质的主要影响因素,中医体质类型调查报告有待规范.     

Recent Administrative and Managerial Practices and Public Service Motivation: Evidence from Seoul City Government,South Korea

This study aims to investigate the impact of recent administrative and managerial practices of public organizations on public service motivation. Using data from a survey of 1840 civil servants in Seoul City Government, this research uses hierarchical linear modeling to empirically assess the aforementioned associations. The results show that recent administrative and managerial practices have both positive and negatives on public service motivation. At the end of the study, the administrative and managerial implications of the study are also discussed in light of these results.     

中医证型、理化指标与慢性心力衰竭预后的相关性分析

目的 分析慢性心力衰竭（chronic heart failure，CHF）患者中医证型、理化指标与终点事件发生的相关性。方法 开展巢式病例对照研究，回顾山东中医药大学附属医院住院治疗的623例CHF患者，选取随访期间发生心源性死亡的62例患者为病例组，以1∶2比例匹配性别相同、年龄差异不大于2岁且未死亡的124例患者为对照组。两组分别从中医辨证分型、N末端B型脑钠肽前体（N-terminal brain natriuretic propeptide，NT-proBNP）、心肌肌钙蛋白Ⅰ（cardiac troponin Ⅰ，cTnⅠ）、血红蛋白（hemoglobin，Hb）、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇（low-density lipoprotein cholesterol，LDL-C）等方面进行分析。采用对数秩检验（log-rank）进行单因素分析，COX比例风险模型进行多因素分析。结果 基线资料表明，两组NT-proBNP、cTnⅠ、LDL-C、Hb、左室射血分数、纽约心脏病协会分级和中医证型分布比较，差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05）；单因素分析表明，NT-proBNP、cTnⅠ、LDL-C、Hb、阳气亏虚血瘀证是CHF患者预后的相关因素；多因素分析发现，NT-proBNP（OR值为1.531，95% CI为1.210～1.936）、cTnⅠ(OR值为3.236，95% CI为1.818～5.760)、阳气亏虚血瘀证（OR值为1.798，95% CI为1.026～3.149）是CHF患者预后的独立危险因素。结论 NT-proBNP、cTnⅠ、阳气亏虚血瘀证是预测CHF患者心源性死亡的独立危险因素，可用于评估患者预后。     

Nowhere to go? Why do some civil wars generate more refugees than others?

Civil wars greatly vary in the number of refugees they generate, ranging from zero to over six millions in a given conflict. Work on this variation has largely focused on “push” factors – deleterious attributes of the home country that lead to refugee flows, such as violence and repression. Yet, few have studied the importance of “pull” factors – attractive features of the potential host countries. Here we show in particular the importance of the expected quality of life in possible destinations. Using data on civil wars from 1951 to 2008, we find that the proximity of democratic and wealthy potential hosts accounts for much of the variation in the number of refugees. Out-of-sample validation methods show that these “pull” factors account for nearly as much predictive power as all the main variables previously identified in the literature combined.