《劳动合同法》对职工劳动报酬权益的保障效应及机制分析 —— 基于制度理论的视角

本研究基于制度理论采用多层广义线性回归模型分析并阐释了《劳动合同法》对职工劳动报酬 权益的保障效应及机制。结果显示：《劳动合同法》的实施显著降低了职工被拖欠工资和加班工资的可能性。《劳 动合同法》实施后，职工所在省份失业率、所在组织成熟度和个体文化程度对职工被拖欠加班工资可能性的影 响趋于消失，但是个体的户籍身份仍然显著影响职工被拖欠加班工资的可能性。此外，文化程度和户籍身份对 职工被拖欠加班工资可能性的影响分别受到职工所在省份失业率或所在组织成熟度的跨层调节作用，即在低失 业率省份场域，不同文化程度职工被拖欠加班工资的可能性存在显著差异，反之则差异不显著；在低成熟度组 织场域中，不同户籍身份职工被拖欠加班工资的可能性存在显著差异，反之则差异不显著。     

The hierarchies of age-period-cohort research: Political context and the development of generational turnout patterns

Voters that come of age at roughly the same time share common influences because of the specific political context during their formative years. We can therefore assume the errors in a model explaining their political behavior to be dependent. Recent advances in social statistical analysis of age-period-cohort (APC) effects propose the use of hierarchical modeling in combination with repeated cross-sectional survey design to solve this problem. We apply these random-intercept models to assess the impact of the political context on the development of generational turnout patterns, assuming that cohorts that grew up in a highly-politicized context have a higher propensity to turnout to vote despite of any age or period effects.     

头颅CT片同一认定研究

目的探寻头颅CT片同一认定的方法。方法分别计算同一被检查者不同次头颅CT片指标差值和不同被检查者头颅CT片指标差值,再应用二分类logistic回归分析相同被检查者和不同被检查者指标差值,建立头颅CT片同一认定回归方程。结果建立头颅CT片同一认定方程46个。结论通过头颅CT片测量可以进行有效同一认定。     

建立与环境和谐（一体）的新经济体系——对循环型经济的思考

本文分析了工业社会的经济体系与环境的对立冲突,指出实现可持续发展的途径在于变革传统的线性型的经济体系,建立与环境和谐的循环型经济体系.文章在分析线性型经济与循环型经济差异的基础上,论述了循环型经济的基本特征和基本内容,并进一步分析了建立新经济体系的现实可能性.     

Is the Future of SSR non-linear?

This article explores issues around security sector reform (SSR) and the involvement of the international community in peace-building. It argues that the international architecture which surrounds SSR privileges a particular form of knowledge that reflects a technocratic approach to security, and illustrates this by systematically examining the literature. Research on the literature itself shows that three core themes dominate: state-centric approaches, technocratic approaches, and approaches to local ownership. These comprise a current, linear approach to SSR that ignores much of the critical literature on peace-building. The article then goes on to draw on some of this critical literature to develop an alternative approach to SSR building using a non-linear approach which incorporates a better understanding of institutional politics, an emphasis on process rather than structures, and analysis of hidden politics.     

狱侦特情：监狱秘密侦查制度的理性回归

监狱秘密侦查的情报源头不畅，主要源于耳目制度设计、刑事立法与监狱警务模式的固有缺陷。监狱应以犯罪防控与侦破案件的功能价值为导向，对现有耳目制度做“狱政耳目”与“狱侦特情”的分类模式迁移，并以侦查行为与侦查措施的运行规则为依据，重构新型实用的狱侦特情制度及其原则体系，为监狱提高情报侦查效能、实现秘密侦查制度的理性回归提供理论支持。     

公共危机事件中网络谣言对网络舆情的影响

以公共危机事件产生的网络谣言为辐射中心,通过构建网络谣言对网络舆情影响程度的评估指标体系,建立多元线性回归方程模型研究其对网络舆情产生的影响程度。据此分析出公共危机事件中网络谣言的变量对网络舆情的影响方式和程度并反映其变化规律,为公共危机事件网络舆情的管理和控制提供理论支撑,以利于政府和网络监管部门及时地,准确地做好公共危机事件网络谣言的防控工作。     

基层政府信任与城乡社区居民的选举参与

我国居(村)委会选举在很大程度上是一个自上而下由政府强力推动的过程,其中街道办(乡镇政府)所起的作用往往至关重要。本文以南京市城乡若干社区的实证调查为研究个案,对居民参与社区居(村)委会选举的现状进行解析和反思,并通过Logistic回归分析深入探讨居民对街道办(乡镇政府)的信任度对社区居(村)委会选举究竟有多大以及何种程度的影响。最后以此为基础进行深入分析、研究与反思,阐明提升居民对街道办(乡镇政府)的信任度,从而推动社区居(村)委会选举与居民自治精神发展的可行性途径。     

Cognitive Skills,Adolescent Violence,and the Moderating Role of Neighborhood Disadvantage

Numerous studies uncover a link between cognitive skills and adolescent violence. Overlooked is whether the relationship changes at varying levels of neighborhood disadvantage. We examine the issue by contrasting two models that place individual difference in cognitive skill within a social‐structural framework. Using five waves of the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and a three‐level hierarchical model, results indicate that cognitive skill is inversely associated with violence and that the relationship is strongest in non‐disadvantaged neighborhoods. However, the cognitive skills–violence relationship is indistinguishable from zero in the most disadvantaged neighborhoods. The findings are therefore consistent with the hypothesis that social expression of developed ability is muted in disadvantaged contexts.     

Utilizing Criminal History Information to Explore the Effect of Community Notification on Sex Offender Recidivism

While sex offender registration laws with notification provisions are now over a decade old, little is known about how these policies influence the prevention of sex offending. Very few studies have considered the impact of notification on sex offender recidivism or the effect of these laws on sex crimes, generally. This study considers the effectiveness of offender tracking and declaration at the state level through evaluation of current sex offender laws in Arkansas. Using a quasi‐experimental regression‐discontinuity design, this research evaluated the recidivism of the first three waves of sex offenders registered in the state (1997–1999) vs. a comparison group of sex offenders from a decade earlier (1987–1989). Findings indicate there is no statistically significant difference between the two groups in terms of recidivism. Policy implications are discussed.