Re-Examining the Functional Form of the Certainty Effect in Deterrence Theory

In this paper we explore the functional form of the risk-certainty effect for deterrence. Using a sample of serious youth offenders, we first estimate a simple linear model of the relationship between the perceived certainty of punishment and self-reported offending. Consistent with previous literature we find evidence of a moderate deterrent effect. We then examined whether, consistent with a linear model, the effect of perceived risk is truly constant at different ranges of the risk continuum. Estimating a nonparametric regression model that makes no a priori assumption about the functional form of the model but allows the data itself to yield the appropriate functional form, we found marked departures from linearity. Our examination showed evidence of both a tipping effect, whereby perceived risk deters only when it reaches a certain threshold (between an estimated risk of .3 and .4) and a substantially accelerated deterrent effect for individuals at the high end of the risk continuum. Perceived sanction threats did, however, have a non-trivial deterrent effect within the mid-range of risk. The implications of our findings for both theory and additional research are discussed.     

尸温相关因素推断死亡时间的研究

目的 统计分析影响尸体温度下降多因素和死亡时间的相关性,探索尸温推断死亡时间的创新应用.方法 建立影响尸体温度(直肠温度)下降相关因素的采集标准,收集实践工作中的157例明确死亡时间真实案例的相关数据,根据实际工作经验结合统计学的基本要求对各因素进行量化评分,利用EXCEL和SPSS软件对数据进行处理,采用多元线性回归的方法统计分析各影响系数同死亡时间的相关性.结果 获得了具有统计学意义的回归方程,Y=25.993+0.04X1+0.172X2+0.88X3+0.047X4+0.373X5+0.347X6-0.766X7,决定系数R2=0.876.结论 该方法为尸温推断死亡时间的创新应用,经测试可用于实际工作.     

Excel统计分析工具在痕迹检验中的应用

痕迹检验是用来揭露和证实犯罪，痕迹检验的结果为侦查、起诉审判提供着不可或缺的线索和证据。痕迹检验中会遇到大量的数据处理，数理统计学提供了有力的科学支持和有效地分析方法，而Excel则为此提供了方便快捷的统计分析工具，让我们在痕迹检验过程中，能都科学的、有效地、快捷的进行数据分析，为侦查破案提供依据。     

Conflict,choice or geography? Explaining patterns of democracy in continental Europe

The ‘character’ of democracy is regularly summarised using political‐institutional measures of, for instance, ‘consensus’ or ‘majoritarian’ democracy. Yet, there is little quantitative‐comparative research on the origins of such configurations. Drawing on literature on endogenous institutions and constitutional design, this article proposes a model for the explanation of empirical patterns of democracy. Using a novel database of 26 continental (neighbouring) European democracies and Bayesian spatial modelling, the results indicate that while today's empirical patterns of democracy in terms of proportional power diffusion can be traced back to waves of democratisation rather than historical partisan power configurations, decentral power diffusion can partially be explained by socio‐structural factors, and spatial dependencies exist for all variants of power diffusion.     

Registrants,Voters, and Turnout Variability Across Neighborhoods

Although political participation has received wide-ranging scholarly attention, little is known for certain about the effects of social and political context on turnout. A scattered set of analyses—well-known by both political scientists and campaign consultants—suggests that ones neighborhood has a relatively minor impact on the decision to vote. These analyses, however, typically rely upon data from a single location. Drawing on official lists of registered voters from sixteen major counties across seven states (including Florida) from the 2000 presidential election, we use geographic/mapping information and hierarchical models to obtain a more accurate picture of how neighborhood characteristics affect participation, especially among partisans. Our research shows that neighborhoods influence voting by interacting with partisan affiliation to dampen turnout among voters we might otherwise expect to participate. Most notably, we find Republican partisans in enemy territory tend to vote less than expected, even after accounting for socioeconomic status. Our findings have implications for campaign strategy, and lead us to suggest that campaign targeting efforts could be improved by an integration of aggregate- and individual-level information about voters.     

根据中国汉族女性甲状软骨推算年龄的研究

目的 根据中国汉族女性甲状软骨推算年龄。方法 对69例已知年龄的中国汉族女性甲状软骨进行软X线摄片和(或)普通X线摄片,从甲状软骨的摄片上选择5个与年龄变化关系较为密切的观察部位,每个部位又划分成3至6个等级,然后采用多元线性回归分析法,建立其推算年龄的数学模型。结果运用该方法推算女性甲状软骨年龄,其标准差为1.969,复相关系数为0.984。结论 本方法适用于中国汉族女性甲状软骨年龄推算,其有效年龄范围为18～60岁。     

Using composite measures in police cynicism research: An application of canonical factor regression

In this paper, a new analytical strategy, the canonical factor regression method (CFRM) is introduced as a tool for constructing indices and measuring reliabilities of those indices from items derived from Niederhoffer's police cynicism index. Data for the project were derived from the survey responses of 574 Illinois police chiefs. Analysis of the data in the present project suggests that CFRM is a useful tool for constructing composite indices. CFRM allowed us to provide a more powerful test of hypothesized relationships between dimensions of cynicism and theoretically salient predictor variables than has previously been possible.     

应用多元逐步回归分析建立ART推算PTT的数学模型

既往国外文献报道用ART推算PTT，但结果差异较大。选择正常听力和感音神经性聋的400例大样本，将全部有关数据用Foxbase数据软件建立相应数据库，再运用SPSS数据分析软件包中多元逐步分析程序，建立了用纯音ART和WNART推算PTT的数学模型。经配合适度和偏回归系数等显著检验（P＜0．00001），且新建方程的准确率和可信性较过去方法为好。年龄、轻度中耳阻抗异常对推算准确性无显著影响。作者认为，新建数学模型可作为法医听力学评定中常规方法。     

Age estimation in children by measurement of carpals and epiphyses of radius and ulna and open apices in teeth: a pilot study

Estimation of skeletal age using radiographic images is widely used in assessing biological growth in clinical and auxological studies. The most frequently used areas for age estimation in children and adolescents are tooth and wrist/hand, both giving good results with only a low level of radiation. This pilot study of a sample of 150 Italian children and adolescents aged between 5 and 15 years focused on analyzing the possible applications of the proportion of carpal area (Ca) and teeth mineralization as a criterion of age estimation. The regression model, describing age as a linear function of gender (g), the ratio between carpal bones area and carpal area (Bo/Ca) and the measurement of open apices, yielded the following equation [Formula in text]. The model explained 93% of the total variance (R(2)=0.93), the median of the absolute values of residuals (observed age minus predicted age) was 0.465 years, with an inter-quartile range (IQR) equalling 0.529 years, and a standard error of estimate of 0.73 years.     

Varieties of contemporary democratic breakdown and regression: A comparative analysis

The goal of this article is to understand which combinations of explanatory conditions account for the qualitative differences within forms of democratic breakdown (i.e., transition from democracy to a hybrid or authoritarian regime) and democratic regression (i.e., transition within democracy through a loss of democratic quality). The analysis focuses particularly on the specific features of those processes of change ending up with a transition from democratic rule, compared to those producing a simple loss of democratic quality within the democratic regime. Applying two‐step fuzzy‐set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), the study aims to integrate different types of explanatory factors, offering a fresh and comprehensive perspective on this phenomenon.