A Method for Estimating Sex Using the Clavicle,Humerus, Radius,and Ulna

Sex estimation from skeletal remains can be an important part of preliminary identification. The best source of information for estimating sex is the pelvis but it is not always available for analysis. For these cases, a probabilistic sex estimation method is presented using combinations of standard and alternative measurements of the clavicle, humerus, radius, and ulna. Various equations are developed that are not population specific and that are applicable in various recovery scenarios. The equations were tested using four independent samples (n > 370), including a forensic sample. Allocation accuracies vary by test sample and equation and are consistently good (87.4–97.5%) except for a sample of very small males that show the extreme effects of poverty and mortality bias. For many of the cases where allocation was incorrect, the probabilistic approach indicated that no confidence should be placed in the incorrect allocation and the unknown should be classified as sex indeterminate.     

Facial Age Synthesis Using Sparse Partial Least Squares (The Case of Ben Needham)

Automatic facial age progression (AFAP) has been an active area of research in recent years. This is due to its numerous applications which include searching for missing. This study presents a new method of AFAP. Here, we use an active appearance model (AAM) to extract facial features from available images. An aging function is then modelled using sparse partial least squares regression (sPLS). Thereafter, the aging function is used to render new faces at different ages. To test the accuracy of our algorithm, extensive evaluation is conducted using a database of 500 face images with known ages. Furthermore, the algorithm is used to progress Ben Needham's facial image that was taken when he was 21 months old to the ages of 6, 14, and 22 years. The algorithm presented in this study could potentially be used to enhance the search for missing people worldwide.     

长吉图开发开放先导区的区域引力与产业布局研究

长吉图开发开放先导区的成立,为东北亚的发展带来了新的机遇。虽然长吉图开发开放先导区内存在着两个经济中心,但延图龙地区的经济发展辐射能力明显低于长吉图。经过近十年的发展,使得长吉图的一体化趋势更加明显,该核心区的第二产业实力雄厚,第三产业发展相对落后;而延图龙核心区第二产业与周边地区产业发展存在脱离现象,未能实现优势互补,第三产业发展势头较好,但现阶段的辐射能力不足。因此,必须加大延图龙及珲春市的建设,推进另一个经济中心的快速增长;大力推进长吉图区域的交通建设,促进产业升级及转变产业增长方式。     

应用锁骨薄层CT容积重建影像推算四川汉族身高

目的探讨锁骨薄层CT三维容积重建影像(CT-VRT)在身高推算中的应用价值,以期更新我国西南地区身高推算数据,为鉴定实践提供技术支撑。方法应用300例锁骨薄层CT-VRT影像,测量并计算左侧锁骨长(LCL)、右侧锁骨长(RCL)、双侧锁骨均长(ACL),分析身高与LCL、RCL、ACL相关性及性别差异,建立身高推算线性回归方程,并对所建模型进行回代检验。结果男性、女性ACL和身高的相关系数分别为0.534、0.707;LCL和身高的相关系数分别为0.484、0.680;RCL和身高的相关系数分别为0.523、0.695。分别建立ACL、LCL、RCL男女性身高推算线性回归模型。回代检验示ACL方程男性身高推算平均绝对误差(MAD)为4.48cm,女性MAD为3.51cm;LCL方程男性身高推算MAD为4.60cm,女性MAD为3.64cm;RCL方程男性身高推算MAD为4.49cm,女性MAD为3.59cm。结论建立的推算身高的回归方程具有统计学意义,模型预测精度较高,表明利用薄层CT-VRT影像测量的锁骨可运用于四川汉族人群身高推算研究。但模型R2较小,因此在应用ACL进行身高推算时最好结合其他指标。     

气候变化法律应对实证分析——从国际公约到国内法的转化

气候变化问题的全球性决定了构建应对气候变化对策必须集合各领域的通力合作的,法律应对机制是必不可少。以往,我们常常将关注点放在气候变化国际法律制度领域的基本问题研究上,而未真正对气候变化国际法律制度进行认真剖析,找出其目前和未来发展阶段的不足之处;更没有在国际实证分析的基础上,结合我国目前的实际情况,做出完整的法律构架,实现国际法的国内法转化,使气候变化的应对能真正落到实处,毕竟《京都议定书》的实现需要各国知之践行;尽管有必要强调共同但区别原则,但是中国作为负责任的大国,有必要提升“道义责任理念”,从自身内部法律实践做起,为温室气体的减排落实真正尽一份力。     

中国代孕制度之立法重构——以无偿的完全代孕为对象

我国现行规章对代孕持一概禁止的态度。由于特定形式的代孕具有权利基础,符合公序良俗,能缓和家庭矛盾,符合市民社会中“人”的影像和中国传统文化,加之域外立法例对特定形式代孕的承认,这一切,使得特定形式的代孕在我国的合法化深具可行性。我国未来代孕立法的基本原则,应坚持人工生殖技术的共有立法原则与代孕技术的特有立法原则相结合的模式,未来立法应对代孕制度的各个方面进行全面、系统的规定。     

Estimating the probability of allelic drop-out of STR alleles in forensic genetics

In crime cases with available DNA evidence, the amount of DNA is often sparse due to the setting of the crime. In such cases, allelic drop-out of one or more true alleles in STR typing is possible. We present a statistical model for estimating the per locus and overall probability of allelic drop-out using the results of all STR loci in the case sample as reference. The methodology of logistic regression is appropriate for this analysis, and we demonstrate how to incorporate this in a forensic genetic framework.     

School Safety Strategies and Their Effects on the Occurrence of School-Based Violence in U.S. High Schools: An Exploratory Study

Recent incidents of school-based violence have resulted in the widespread implementation of school safety strategies across the United States. While research on these strategies has grown over the past decade, there is little understanding about their collective influence on indicators of school violence. Using data from the 2007–2008 School Survey on Crime and Safety, the present study explored responses of 936 school officials (N = 936) employed in high schools across the United States. Taking a confirmatory factor analytic approach, strategies were grouped into numerous factors based on their typology. Factor scores were then extracted and used as predictor variables in a negative binomial regression analysis to determine the extent to which types of safety strategies were associated with recorded incidents of school-based violence.     

Sentences and prosecutors’ demands for aggravated drunk driving in Finland

ABSTRACT

Sentences and prosecutors’ demands for aggravated drunk driving are categorised into three classes: The sentence is more lenient than, is compatible with, or is harsher than the prosecutor’s demand. The probability of a sentence falling into one of the three ordered categories is explained by a cumulative logit model. The following circumstances affect the probability of a more lenient or harsher sentence, in decreasing order of importance: driving a truck, facing at least four counts, having a legal assistant, and being present in the trial. The hypothesis that factors known by the prosecutor, at the time of writing the demand, should not systematically affect sentences is refuted. The judges assess circumstances differently than the prosecutors. The prosecutors’ role is nevertheless prominent in the sense that the sentences follow, to a great extent, their demands. Notable gender effects of the actors in the courtroom are found.