Criminal Justice Statistics—An Evolution

The origins of the Bureau of Justice Statistics and criminal justice statistics in general go back 150 years, but the U.S. President's Commission on Law Enforcement and Administration of Justice in 1967, along with subsequent panels and commissions, added urgency and specificity to the work to be done to improve our understanding of the operation of the criminal justice system and of crime. Criminal justice statistics have the potential to be used to shape and evaluate specific policies and programs when the statistics are timely, accurate, and relevant to the decisions being made for policy formulation or evaluation. The full development of effective criminal justice statistics on crime and the administration of the justice system can provide for informed decision making and more insightful resource allocation. In this article, I summarize the historical progressions and evolution of criminal justice statistics in light of the changes affecting the justice environment and propose future work.     

Detection Rates, An International Comparison

Within Europe detection rates vary considerably. The differences are too large to be explained purely by the ability of the police to solve cases. In a study covering nine European countries many other factors (external, organisational and technical factors) influencing the detection rate are identified and the influence is empirically made plausible. Next, a comparison is made between the punishment rate and the detection rate. The fact that punishment rates are more stable is explained by the difference between a crime oriented and an offender oriented approach. Also a link is made with the discretionary powers of the police and prosecution.     

Introducing Computed Tomography Standards for Age Estimation of Modern Australian Subadults Using Postnatal Ossification Timings of Select Cranial and Cervical Sites,

Contemporary, population‐specific ossification timings of the cranium are lacking in current literature due to challenges in obtaining large repositories of documented subadult material, forcing Australian practitioners to rely on North American, arguably antiquated reference standards for age estimation. This study assessed the temporal pattern of ossification of the cranium and provides recalibrated probabilistic information for age estimation of modern Australian children. Fusion status of the occipital and frontal bones, atlas, and axis was scored using a modified two‐ to four‐tier system from cranial/cervical DICOM datasets of 585 children aged birth to 10 years. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate maximum‐likelihood estimates between consecutive fusion stages, in conjunction with Bayesian statistics to calculate credible intervals for age estimation. Results demonstrate significant sex differences in skeletal maturation (p < 0.05) and earlier timings in comparison with major literary sources, underscoring the requisite of updated standards for age estimation of modern individuals.     

Development of Individuality in Children's Handwriting

Handwriting of children in early grades is studied from the viewpoint of quantitatively measuring the development of handwriting individuality. Handwriting samples of children, in grades 2–4, writing a paragraph of text in both handprinted and cursive, collected over a period of 3 years, were analyzed using two different approaches: (i) characteristics of the word “and” and (ii) entire paragraphs using an automated system. In the first approach, word characteristics were analyzed using statistical measures. In the second approach, pairs of paragraphs were compared. Both types of analysis, single word and complete writing, led to the same conclusions: (i) handwriting of each child remains relatively similar when handwriting has been just learnt and becomes markedly different from grades 3 to 4 and (ii) handwriting of different children becomes progressively more different from grades 2 to 4. The results provide strong support that handwriting becomes more individualistic with child development.     

Sweden in 1930 and the 1930 census

The primary goal of censuses has always been to collect reliable information on the state’s population and provide a basis for governmental decision-making. This study examines the categories used in the 1930 census and links them to the context in which they were generated. We treat the census as a tool of state power, which can be discerned from the definitions of its categories and the way in which statistics are collected and used. The guiding question of the study was “how does the 1930 census differ from previous censuses and how can these differences and changes be explained?” We find that as in earlier censuses, Statistics Sweden used extracts from the parish books on the individual level to collect information for the 1930 census, but also used diverse supplementary sources including tax registers, income tax returns and language surveys. Thus, unlike in most countries, Sweden did not send out census takers or questionnaires to the population. Many of the new or updated variables we see in the 1930 census such as income, wealth, and number of children born, can be related to the political and social debate concerning the poor working class and the establishment of the welfare state. The inclusion of categories such as ethnicity, religion, and foreign nationality can be seen as part of a normative approach wanting to control, monitor and correct deviant elements of the Swedish population.

Sweden has several extraordinary longitudinal population databases built on the country’s excellent parish registers dating back to the 18th century. While the Swedish censuses have rarely been used as sources of data for historical analysis, this work demonstrates that the 1930 census has great potential to support new research.     

公安高等院校开设《公安统计学》课程的若干认识与思考

公安高等教育是我国高等教育的重要组成部分,从公安专业的知识结构看,很有必要进行统计学教育,我们称之为《公安统计学》。其教材要突出"三用",即"实用、够用、会用",教学时间安排在54学时左右。教学方法应淡化形式、注重实质,体现公安专业特色,重视案例教学,培养学生创新能力,运用现代教学手段,努力提高课堂教学效率。     

Using Spatial,Temporal and Evidence‐status Data to Improve Ballistic Imaging Performance

Firearms identification imaging systems help solve crimes by comparing newly acquired images of cartridge casings or bullets to a database of images obtained from past crime scenes. We formulate an optimization problem that bases its matching decisions not only on the similarity between pairs of images, but also on the time and spatial location of each new acquisition and each database entry. The objective is to maximize the detection probability subject to a constraint on the false positive rate. We use data on all cartridge casings matches detected in Israel during 2006–2008 to estimate most of the model parameters. We estimate matching accuracy from two different studies and predict that the optimal use of extraneous information would increase the detection probability from 0.931 to 0.987 and from 0.707 to 0.844, respectively. These improvements are achieved by favoring pairs of images that are closer together in space and time.     

Virtual Tool Mark Generation for Efficient Striation Analysis,

This study introduces a tool mark analysis approach based upon 3D scans of screwdriver tip and marked plate surfaces at the micrometer scale from an optical microscope. An open‐source 3D graphics software package is utilized to simulate the marking process as the projection of the tip's geometry in the direction of tool travel. The edge of this projection becomes a virtual tool mark that is compared to cross‐sections of the marked plate geometry using the statistical likelihood algorithm introduced by Chumbley et al. In a study with both sides of six screwdriver tips and 34 corresponding marks, the method distinguished known matches from known nonmatches with zero false‐positive matches and two false‐negative matches. For matches, it could predict the correct marking angle within ±5–10°. Individual comparisons could be made in seconds on a desktop computer, suggesting that the method could save time for examiners.     

Distortion in Fingerprints: A Statistical Investigation using Shape Measurement Tools

Friction ridge impression appearance can be affected due to the type of surface touched and pressure exerted during deposition. Understanding the magnitude of alterations, regions affected, and systematic/detectable changes occurring would provide useful information. Geometric morphometric techniques were used to statistically characterize these changes. One hundred and fourteen prints were obtained from a single volunteer and impressed with heavy, normal, and light pressure on computer paper, soft gloss paper, 10‐print card stock, and retabs. Six hundred prints from 10 volunteers were rolled with heavy, normal, and light pressure on soft gloss paper and 10‐print card stock. Results indicate that while different substrates/pressure levels produced small systematic changes in fingerprints, the changes were small in magnitude: roughly the width of one ridge. There were no detectable changes in the degree of random variability of prints associated with either pressure or substrate. In conclusion, the prints transferred reliably regardless of pressure or substrate     

Media consumption: Using social attitudes to segment society – a typology of a South African sample

Abstract

In this, the first of a two-article series, an attitudinal typology was developed for use in a subsequent study of media consumption and psychographic variables. The current study used multivariate statistics to identify types of individuals who are similar to one another, across multiple measures of attitudes towards social issues. Agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis of data from 11 533 South Africans, aged 16 years and older, revealed six distinct types based on the component ‘attitudinal variables’. The types were labelled Contemporaries, Conventionals, Unconcerneds, Self-involveds, Old-schoolers and Confidents. Preliminary analysis of available demographic variables revealed significant differences for age, population group, gender, work status, home language, SAARF Lifestages and SAARF Universal Living Standard Measure (SU-LSM®) for the six types. The typology illustrates the possibility of empirical identification of distinct attitudinal types of a South African sample. Methodological limitations and recommendations for further research are discussed.