混合斑的DNA分型解析

综述了常染色体STR、Amelogenin、Y染色体STR、线粒体DNA和单核苷酸多态性等DNA检测方法在解释混合斑检验结果应用中的进展。对混合斑的统计学方法也作了总结。     

Extraction of the relevant population from a forensic database

Evaluation of forensic evidence using Bayesian statistics requires the formulation of hypotheses. Many hypotheses, especially those presenting the defence viewpoint imply that traces can be attributed to an arbitrary member of a relevant population. The exact items or persons that comprise the relevant population may vary from case to case. Therefore, the statistical evaluation of evidential value based on databases cannot make use of a fixed set of items or persons. In the current paper, methodology is presented to filter the contents of a database such that only items that are considered relevant are selected. Six scenarios, including those related to fibre, textile, and glass evidence are described, together with the hypotheses and relevant populations that may be evaluated by an expert. In addition, we show how items representing the defined relevant population can be extracted from a database using SQL code. Images of the items in the (filtered) relevant population provide an overview of the selected items and hence direct feedback to the examiner. In this way, erroneous codes or unwanted side effects can be identified and corrected. It is concluded that the filtering procedure is effective in cases where the relevant population is demarcated accurately.     

俄罗斯移民政策弊端解析

俄罗斯还不是真正意义上的移民国家,其接收各类外来移民(定居移民、劳务移民和留学移民等)的历史并不长。从国民性格角度看,俄罗斯社会缺乏安全感,在制定移民政策时,总是将安全考量放在第一位。俄移民领域的管理因而具有浓重的“强力”色彩,“经济”和“融合”的成分则相对不足。当前俄移民政策领域存在诸多弊端,如融合政策缺失,腐败问题严重,统计工作不到位,移民政策缺乏系统性和连贯性等。为构建具有吸引力的移民政策,俄罗斯学界提出很多建设性主张,如必须为引进和利用外国劳动力制定简单透明的规则和程序;必须使移民政策的实施由单独的联邦非强力部门主管;必须要有保障移民融合的基础设施,维护移民的权利,反对影子就业和社会隔离;公开承认移民对于国家经济的作用,对居民解释实行移民政策的各种动机,创造出移民和社会可以有效协作的氛围。这些主张能否得以落实,还有待进一步观察。     

The Comparability of Data on Convictions and Sanctions: Are International Comparisons Possible?

This article looks at the availability of data on convictions and on sanctions and measures in European countries, on the basis of the European Sourcebook data. It emphasises the limitations in the use that can currently be made of this data, although it has a wide potential in helping to understand criminal justice policy. The differences are, for instance, to be found in offence definitions, statistical rules, and political changes. Moreover the data collection for the Sourcebook on the four categories of sanctions/measures (fines, non-custodial sentences, suspended custodial sentences and unsuspended custodial sentences) was sometimes difficult. Attention is paid to the information collected, the comparability and, as an illustration, to three specific offences (completed homicide, rape and all thefts). The conclusion is that wide differences exist in the level of convictions found and the use of sanctions by the courts. Such differences will reflect both different levels of criminality, diversion away from the courts but also different recording practices. However, even with these caveats what is available does provide a useful starting point in identifying countries on which further research may be carried out.     

Prosecution in Europe: Varying Structures, Convergent Trends

Chapter 2 of the European Sourcebook attempts to show the differences as well as the common features of the prosecution services of the Council of Europe Member States. In order to do so the following five categories of statistics were collected: the total number of cases the prosecuting authority recorded as having been dealt with within a particular year; the number of cases brought before a court; the number of cases dropped; the number of cases dropped conditionally; the number of cases ended by the imposition of a sanction. The prosecution statistics of the European countries studied vary because of differences in the input structures. They are also affected by variations in output structures. These are determined by the powers that the prosecution authorities themselves possess. These variations between the prosecution systems within Europe cause significant differences in the resulting statistics and must be borne in mind when analysing the European Sourcebook data.     

矫正犯罪统计策略研究

犯罪统计是研究犯罪手段、特征和原因,预测未来犯罪,制定刑事政策的重要方法和依据.受到各种因素影响,犯罪统计不实是长期存在的问题.由于犯罪统计数据和资料的不实影响了犯罪统计的功能.通过利用数理统计学原理对犯罪统计不实进行分析和矫正,从统计分析方法角度发现问题和解决问题.     

Social Policy and the Authority of Evidence

The growing call for social policy to be evidence‐based implies that ‘evidence’ possesses an intrinsic authority. Much of the evidence used by governments to formulate or evaluate social policy is signified through statistics and the language of quantification. Evidence presented in this way has the appearance of certainty and a legitimacy that seems beyond challenge. Having an appreciation of the history and sociology of the ‘science of the state’, as statistics was originally defined, helps demystify the authority of social statistics. This enables policy‐makers and program administrators to better discern the policy merit of numerical evidence.     

Dataset of Digitized RACs and Their Rarity Score Analysis for Strengthening Shoeprint Evidence

In recent years, there is a growing demand to fortify the scientific basis of forensic methodology. During 2016, the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) published a report that states there are no appropriate empirical studies that support the foundational validity of footwear analysis to associate shoeprints with particular shoes based on specific identifying marks, which is a basic scientific demand from the field. Furthermore, meaningful databases that can support such studies do not exist. Without such databases, statistical presentation of the comparison results cannot be fulfilled either. In this study, a database of over 13,000 randomly acquired characteristics (RACs) such as scratches, nicks, tears, and holes, as they appear on shoe sole test impressions, from nearly 400 shoe soles was collected semi-automatically. The location, orientation, and the contour of each RAC were determined for all the RACs on each test impression. The statistical algorithm Statistic Evaluation of Shoeprint Accidentals (SESA) was developed to calculate a score for finding another feature similar to a particular scanned and digitized RAC in the same shape, location, and orientation as the examined one. A correlation was found between the results of SESA and the results of real casework, strengthening our belief in the ability of SESA to assist the expert in reaching a conclusion while performing casework. The score received at the end of the process serves the expert as a guiding number, allowing more objective and accurate results and conclusions.     

革命根据地法制史研究历程回顾——以数据统计为中心的考察

革命根据地法制是中国法律史研究的重要组成部分。革命根据地法制史研究经历了开拓起步、稳定发展和快速发展三个阶段。在研究成果方面,法律法规汇编、论文及专著等各种形式成果不断增多;在研究领域方面,实现了从农村革命根据地到城市革命根据地的拓展;在研究队伍的建设方面,形成了老中青三代人的学术梯队;在学术平台构建方面,体现了从鲜见到显见的增进趋势。