习近平法治思想中的全球治理观

中国始终是世界和平的建设者、全球发展的贡献者、国际秩序的维护者,在"百年未有之大变局"中,中国前所未有地靠近世界舞台中心.习近平总书记在新的历史起点上,准确把握国际国内两个大局,针对全球治理这一重大课题,提出了以"构建人类命运共同体"理念为指引,以"走和平发展道路"和"中国走向世界,以负责任大国参与国际事务""构建以合...     

疫情冲击下的世界经济与中国对策

新冠肺炎疫情的急剧扩散正在对世界经济产生严重冲击,使得任何国家都无法独善其身。本文探讨了疫情对世界经济增长、深层次结构以及全球经济治理等领域可能造成的冲击,认为世界经济秩序和国际经济关系都将受到重大影响,全球化进程可能呈现出现碎片化发展趋势,全球治理赤字更加凸显且内容更加广域化,跨国公司的产业链重构进程将有所加快并更加注重安全因素。在这种严峻形势下,中国应采取更加系统的应对措施,短期内宏观经济政策重心应该从“保增长”调整为“保就业”,并努力确保外向型产业链稳定;中长期应该更加注重扩大内需,进一步扩大金融业开放和积极推进国际经济协调。     

从应对贸易摩擦到预防经济脱钩:2019年中国经济外交形势分析

2019年,中国经济外交在严峻的国际经济环境中负重前行,取得了一系列进展。首先,以建设性姿态与美国展开经贸谈判,最终在年底达成中美第一阶段贸易协议,避免了中美经贸关系的进一步恶化。其次,积极加大对欧洲、日本、俄罗斯以及东南亚等主要经济体的经济外交,推动国际经济合作,力促RCEP完成谈判。这些努力在一定程度上化解了中美贸易战带来的负面影响。第三,中国的"带路"外交进入机制化建设的新阶段,尤其是新建立的"一带一路"新闻与智库交流机制得到各方积极响应。展望2020年,中美经贸关系依然错综复杂,WTO改革压力重重,欧洲和日本等主要经济体对中国的疑虑可能会进一步发酵,中国经济外交依旧充满挑战。     

“印太”视域下印日“特殊全球战略伙伴关系”:动力、影响及前景

近年来,随着美国"印太"战略的提出和印度洋战略地位的进一步凸显,印度洋—太平洋地区已经成为世界各大国战略竞争与博弈的重点区域。印度与日本作为影响印太秩序的两支重要力量,两国均提出了自己的"印太"战略构想,并不断加强在印太地区的战略互动。在"印太"地缘框架下,印日战略伙伴关系的内涵得到全面发展,已经升级为"特殊全球战略伙伴关系"。印日战略伙伴关系以共同的"民主价值观"为纽带,在政治、经贸、安全、军事等各领域的合作全面深化,并具有浓厚的制衡中国色彩。在当前国际政治、经济重心向印太地区转移的大背景下,印日战略伙伴关系的强化既是两国各自利益的需求使然,也是对印太地缘政治格局新变化的反应,必将对当前的印太地区秩序产生深远而复杂的影响。面对"印太时代"的到来,中国应与印日共同建立有关印太地区秩序的对话沟通机制,扩大中印日三国在印太地区基于共同利益的战略合作,推进印太命运共同体建设。在当前印太地缘政治兴起与日印战略伙伴关系不断升温的情势下,中国既要密切关注日印战略伙伴关系的发展态势,客观地看待印日在印太地区的战略互动给中国周边外交环境带来的各种风险和挑战。同时也要积极构建中国的"印太"战略,运筹好中日、中印双边关系,以便塑造有利于中国和平崛起的周边安全环境。     

区域全面经济伙伴关系协定对台湾的经济影响--基于价值链分析和GTAP政策模拟

2020年11月,区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)正式签署,全球最大的自由贸易区应运而生。本文从传统贸易与价值链出发,阐述台湾与RCEP成员经贸关系和价值链联系,分析RCEP签署对台湾经济和贸易的影响,利用GTAP模型模拟RCEP关税削减对台湾岛内经济与产业的影响。结果显示:RCEP建立将导致台湾对外贸易与投资的转移,贸易条件恶化,从而对岛内各产业产出、经济增长、消费者福利带来负面冲击。同时,台湾通过后向联系参与全球价值链的低端产业将面临被替代的风险。     

Dynamics of Trade in Value-Added in “Factory Asia”

ABSTRACT

Trade patterns in East Asia are termed the “Factory Asia” model, whereby Asia functions as a “global factory” that imports intermediate goods from its regional networks and then assembles and exports them as finished goods to higher-income developed countries. In 2001, China’s accession into the World Trade Organisation consolidated this pattern by becoming the core economy in this model. However, is this pattern still valid after more than a decade of rapid development in East Asian countries? The main objective of this article is to examine the evolution of this pattern of trade in East Asian countries. Although the key findings of this study show that the Factory Asia model continues, it is changing as different East Asian countries capture more value in global value chains. The gaps in the rate of upgrading are identified and mainly attributed to differences in government policies and competition. However, the dependence on foreign inputs still remains an important part of high-technology production in East Asian countries. Hence, the idea that East Asia is evolving from a “factory” into a “Research & Development hub” remains far-fetched.     

Turkish foreign policy in the post-Arab Spring era: from proactive to buffer state

Our globalising world is presently in a state of global turmoil. Risk, uncertainty, and insecurity are the terms that shape global/regional/national/local affairs and developments. The refugee crisis and the war against ISIL constitute the twin crises creating seismic impacts and consequences that in turn escalate risk and turmoil. Turkey is situated at the heart of these two crises, being very much affected by them and, therefore, perceived as a pivotal actor in the way in which the West is dealing with them. Yet, the West’s current instrumentalist and functionalist approach to Turkey as a buffer state designed to contain these two crises in the MENA does not offer an effective and sustainable solution to these crises, much less provide the stability and order that is direly needed in regional and global affairs.     

Evangelical violence: Western Christianity and the use of force against the Third World

Abstract

Recognising the impact of religion on state action, this article identifies two variables that interact to affect the type and level of violence employed by Western states against Third World targets. First, variation in the degree to which the prominent Christian denominations and organisations within these states view evangelisation as either an individual-level or national-level process – Christian individualism vs Christian nationalism – has determined church support for using violence as a tactic. Second, the level of influence that churches and missionary organisations have over their home states affects the ability of Christian actors to directly impact state actions. Western violence against Third World peoples is expected to be lowest when churches and Christian organisations view evangelisation in primarily individualistic terms and have significant influence over the state. The article examines the relationships between concepts of evangelisation, Christian influence over state policies, and levels of violence against the Third World by examining British, French and German colonialism during the late colonial period of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.     

略论全球治理理论对当代国际法的影响与挑战

全球化的加速发展和全球治理理论的兴起给现代国际法理论与实践带来了新的挑战。虽然全球治理的理论模式还不成熟和完善,但它已深刻影响到国际社会未来的发展方向。一方面,国际法作为调节国际社会行为主体之间关系的法律规范和制度,对全球治理的实现起着重要的规范作用;另一方面,国际法也应积极适应全球化的潮流,使其和全球治理理论在交流与互动过程中得到共同发展。中国作为负责任的发展中大国,应更积极地在全球治理进程中扮演维护者和建设者的角色。     

A Cartography of a Global Civil Society Advocacy Alliance: The Case of the Global Call to Action against Poverty

The last few decades have witnessed the emergence of global civil society advocacy networks as major players in global governance. The Global Call to Action against Poverty (GCAP) is one of the recent phenomena in this arena and epitomizes high-level involvement of a multiplicity of actors in GCAP, with various multilateral governance institutions, as well as states. This article analyses the origins of GCAP, motivations for its formation, evolution, and operations, with specific references to its structures and architecture. It argues that alliances are very different from ‘normal’ forms of organizations because they are made up of diverse forms of organizations, coming together voluntarily to achieve a specific purpose and therefore are by their very nature complex, unstable, and difficult to co-ordinate. The result of such, within GCAP, is an organization that is somewhat amorphous and exhibits both aspects of anti-systemic protest (in Polanyian terms) as well as a pacifying force (part of the hegemonic historic block in Gramcsian terms). I argue that the loose nature of global civil society alliances is a positive contributor to mass mobilization but causes frustrations in decision-making and actions. This, in effect, calls for a more bureaucratized and institutionalized architecture, albeit with a potential to alienate some constituencies. A key lesson from GCAP's evolution, structures, and strategies, I posit, is that it is not possible to push through individual positions without compromising so as to accommodate others.