关于社会犯罪统计理论与时间序列分析的研究

文章基于社会犯罪发生的基本特征,从信息科学研究的角度讨论了社会犯罪统计的意义和特点,提出了在犯罪统计理论研究中应采用的理论和方法。同时,讨论了犯罪时间序列分析的意义和方法,最后提出了在这一领域的研究方向。     

International Migration and the European Union, Trends and Consequences

Member States of the European Union (EU) have undoubtedly changed into de facto countries of immigration. Since the upswing in migration in the late 1980s, net migration for the 15 EU Member States together has not been below 500,000. This article first focuses on trends in international migration (such as migration from former colonies, recruitment of temporary workers, and East-West migration) and special groups of immigrants (such as ethnic Germans, asylum seekers, and clandestine migrants). The second part of the article pays attention to immigrant settlement and migration policies, especially focusing on the European Union (trafficking and smuggling of humans, and the integration of migrants on the labour market). Detailed comparison of international migration flows is seriously hindered by a complexity of different national registration systems, and different countries display differences with regard to type and history of migration, country of origin, size of migration flows and immigrant populations.     

公安犯罪统计失真的现状原因、危害及对策

公安犯罪统计失真现象比较严重,表现形式多样.其形成原因,在于对犯罪规律认识不够,统计标准及方法不科学,因而造成的社会危害十分严重.要克服公安犯罪统计失真现象,必须建立科学的社会治安状况评估指标体系.     

对《公安统计学》教学的几点思考

《公安统计学》是一门实用性很强同时又较难掌握的学科,如何在学生中建立较高的统计学教学地位,培养学生学习兴趣,使其能够运用统计学基本理念和统计分析方法解决实际问题,正是公安统计教学所追求的目标。本文从教育理念、教学内容、教学手段和方法等方面对《公安统计学》教学进行了思考。     

A simple and effective image-statistics-based approach to detecting recaptured images from LCD screens

It is now extremely easy to recapture high-resolution and high-quality images from LCD (Liquid Crystal Display) screens. Recaptured image detection is an important digital forensic problem, as image recapture is often involved in the creation of a fake image in an attempt to increase its visual plausibility. State-of-the-art image recapture forensic methods make use of strong prior knowledge about the recapturing process and are based on either the combination of a group of ad-hoc features or a specific and somehow complicated dictionary learning procedure. By contrast, we propose a conceptually simple yet effective method for recaptured image detection which is built upon simple image statistics and a very loose assumption about the recapturing process. The adopted features are pixel-wise correlation coefficients in image differential domains. Experimental results on two large databases of high-resolution, high-quality recaptured images and comparisons with existing methods demonstrate the forensic accuracy and the computational efficiency of the proposed method.     

Post-Soviet Society and Russia’s Macroeconomic Statistics

This article investigates the causes of the distorted macroeconomic statistics in the Russian Federation. It introduces alternative methods for the estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and the growth and amount of fixed capital stock, and estimates them by drawing on alternative data. Our estimates for the period of 1992–2015 differ substantially from those reported by the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat). According to our estimates, GDP declined by 10.2 percent, which is in sharp contrast with the official estimate reporting growth of 13.4 percent. The same is found with regard to labor productivity, for which we find a decline of 30.1 percent instead of a growth of 9.2 percent. Accordingly, the full book value of fixed capital stock shrunk by 29.2 percent instead of the officially reported 50.9 percent growth. The drop in the residual value of fixed capital is estimated at 52.6 percent. The ratio of replacement to book value of fixed capital fluctuated between 4:1 in the middle of the period and 7:1 toward the end of the period. Additionally, we estimate the amount of investment in human and physical capital necessary for producing 3 percent annual GDP growth. Financing such investment would require a decline in personal consumption by about a factor of 2, with a greater part of it falling on the better off population strata. Finally, we make suggestions regarding income redistribution.     

From Victim to Offender: Female Offenders of Child Sexual Abuse

Historically, women have been seen to have a much lower recorded rate of crime than men. In the area of child sexual abuse, women have figured prominently in official statistics as victims but have had virtually no official recognition as offenders. It is difficult for many people to accept that women do sexually abuse children and this can result in discounting by personnel in child protection services and police. This article discusses female offenders of child sexual abuse and the way in which these cases are processed by the criminal justice system.     

Police Manipulations of Crime Reporting: Insiders’ Revelations

Social scientists have theorized about the corruption of crime reports (Bayley, 1983; Campbell, 1976). Yet, scant empirical research has examined the impact of modern policing methods on the accuracy of crime reporting. Our research uses an anonymous survey of 1,770 retired New York City police officers examining retirees’ experiences with crime report manipulations across their years of retirement. This includes retirees from the community policing as well as police performance management eras. We subject the data to various statistical tests including tabular analysis, graphical trends to visualize the data, MANOVA, and logistic regression to explain report manipulations. Results indicate that the misuse of the performance management system and pressures on officers from management are key explanations for manipulating crime reports. Individual explanatory variables such as gender, educational status, rank, race, and marital status had no effect. Our research supports Bayley’s and Campbell’s theories. We recommend greater transparency to remedy this.     

The historical criminal statistics of Finland 1842–2015 – a systematic comparison to Sweden

ABSTRACT

The purpose of the article is to provide an overview to the trends in crime and crime control in Finland and Sweden during the past 150 years, systematically comparing the two countries. The secondary objective of the study is to introduce a Nordic data collection project aiming to compile coherent comparative criminal justice time series from the early nineteenth century to the present, and to present the first collection of data, the Finnish justice statistics 1842–2015. The study examines the long-term development of homicide, assault, rape, defamation, prison population, and penal severity. Historical statistics provide opportunities to examine the crime trends and the society’s responses to them keeping in mind that the statistics do not necessarily reflect changes in total criminality. As such, the study does not provide conclusive explanations on the development of crime and punishment but rather opens new questions to be answered in future research.     

Influences on the Prisoner Rate: Number of Entries into Prison, Length of Sentences and Crime Rate

On the basis of the data contained in the European Sourcebook, this article tries to answer the question: 'What influences the prisoner rate most? The number of entries into prison, the length of sentences, or the crime rate?' The authors show that the crime rate is absolutely not correlated with the prisoner rate. The latter depends principally on the length of the imposed custodial sanctions and secondly on the number of those imposed prison sentences. Nevertheless, there are some indications suggesting that these results could be different from one type of offence to another. Unfortunately, this hypothesis could not be tested on the basis of the European Sourcebook data.