Structural Equation Modeling of School Violence Data

SUMMARY

Methodological challenges associated with structural equation modeling (SEM) and structured means modeling (SMM) in research on school violence and related topics in the social and behavioral sciences are examined. Problems associated with multiyear implementations of large-scale surveys are discussed. Complex sample designs, part of any large-scale survey, introduce multiple methodological challenges into SEM analysis. Problems with missing data and data imputation procedures are explored, along with commonly occurring departures from normality. Hypothesis testing of models and associated fit indices are explicated. Issues surrounding the use of Lagrange Multiplier tests of constraint validity in SMM are examined. Finally, basic problems associated with developing viable models of complex social phenomena with SEM are considered.     

美国民众对军售台湾支持率的影响因素研究——基于美国人对华态度实证调研

美国对外政策的制定通常需要有民意基础,然而现有研究鲜有从美国民众的视角探究美国对台军售。本文基于美国人对华态度实证调研的数据,利用单因子试验法测试美国民众在“中美关系”和“对台军售”间的权衡,并采用logistic模型来检查影响美国民众对台军售支持率的主要因素。结果表明即使对台军售会严重恶化或危害中美关系,58％的美国民众依然支持美国对台军售。政治倾向（温和派）、媒体和信息渠道（收听广播和浏览网络频率）、个人因素（性别、年龄）等是影响美国民众对台军售支持率的主要因素。终止美国对台军售,我国一方面需要有更加强有力的反制措施,另一方面可以尝试通过长期规划的网络传播手段来扭转美国民众对对台军售的支持。     

A Method for Estimating Sex Using the Clavicle,Humerus, Radius,and Ulna

Sex estimation from skeletal remains can be an important part of preliminary identification. The best source of information for estimating sex is the pelvis but it is not always available for analysis. For these cases, a probabilistic sex estimation method is presented using combinations of standard and alternative measurements of the clavicle, humerus, radius, and ulna. Various equations are developed that are not population specific and that are applicable in various recovery scenarios. The equations were tested using four independent samples (n > 370), including a forensic sample. Allocation accuracies vary by test sample and equation and are consistently good (87.4–97.5%) except for a sample of very small males that show the extreme effects of poverty and mortality bias. For many of the cases where allocation was incorrect, the probabilistic approach indicated that no confidence should be placed in the incorrect allocation and the unknown should be classified as sex indeterminate.     

Facial Age Synthesis Using Sparse Partial Least Squares (The Case of Ben Needham)

Automatic facial age progression (AFAP) has been an active area of research in recent years. This is due to its numerous applications which include searching for missing. This study presents a new method of AFAP. Here, we use an active appearance model (AAM) to extract facial features from available images. An aging function is then modelled using sparse partial least squares regression (sPLS). Thereafter, the aging function is used to render new faces at different ages. To test the accuracy of our algorithm, extensive evaluation is conducted using a database of 500 face images with known ages. Furthermore, the algorithm is used to progress Ben Needham's facial image that was taken when he was 21 months old to the ages of 6, 14, and 22 years. The algorithm presented in this study could potentially be used to enhance the search for missing people worldwide.     

Quantifying Uncertainty in Estimations of the Total Weight of Drugs in Groups of Complex Matrices: Using the Welch–Satterthwaite Equation

In this paper, a method is described to quantify estimations of the total amount of drugs in groups of seized items, including quantification of the precision. Previous work on this topic was based on the assumptions of normally distributed measurements and grouping of items with a common relative standard deviation. In practice, these assumptions are often violated, for example, for data with point masses at 0, or if certain items in a group have a very high standard deviation. The method described in this paper is based on work by Welch and Satterthwaite and does not assume constant relative standard deviations. Case examples are described for which the method is applied, and simulation studies are carried out for which both methods are applied. In the cases, both methods perform reasonably well. If the assumption of common relative standard deviations clearly does not apply, it is advised to use the method described.     

长吉图开发开放先导区的区域引力与产业布局研究

长吉图开发开放先导区的成立,为东北亚的发展带来了新的机遇。虽然长吉图开发开放先导区内存在着两个经济中心,但延图龙地区的经济发展辐射能力明显低于长吉图。经过近十年的发展,使得长吉图的一体化趋势更加明显,该核心区的第二产业实力雄厚,第三产业发展相对落后;而延图龙核心区第二产业与周边地区产业发展存在脱离现象,未能实现优势互补,第三产业发展势头较好,但现阶段的辐射能力不足。因此,必须加大延图龙及珲春市的建设,推进另一个经济中心的快速增长;大力推进长吉图区域的交通建设,促进产业升级及转变产业增长方式。     

应用锁骨薄层CT容积重建影像推算四川汉族身高

目的探讨锁骨薄层CT三维容积重建影像(CT-VRT)在身高推算中的应用价值,以期更新我国西南地区身高推算数据,为鉴定实践提供技术支撑。方法应用300例锁骨薄层CT-VRT影像,测量并计算左侧锁骨长(LCL)、右侧锁骨长(RCL)、双侧锁骨均长(ACL),分析身高与LCL、RCL、ACL相关性及性别差异,建立身高推算线性回归方程,并对所建模型进行回代检验。结果男性、女性ACL和身高的相关系数分别为0.534、0.707;LCL和身高的相关系数分别为0.484、0.680;RCL和身高的相关系数分别为0.523、0.695。分别建立ACL、LCL、RCL男女性身高推算线性回归模型。回代检验示ACL方程男性身高推算平均绝对误差(MAD)为4.48cm,女性MAD为3.51cm;LCL方程男性身高推算MAD为4.60cm,女性MAD为3.64cm;RCL方程男性身高推算MAD为4.49cm,女性MAD为3.59cm。结论建立的推算身高的回归方程具有统计学意义,模型预测精度较高,表明利用薄层CT-VRT影像测量的锁骨可运用于四川汉族人群身高推算研究。但模型R2较小,因此在应用ACL进行身高推算时最好结合其他指标。     

气候变化法律应对实证分析——从国际公约到国内法的转化

气候变化问题的全球性决定了构建应对气候变化对策必须集合各领域的通力合作的,法律应对机制是必不可少。以往,我们常常将关注点放在气候变化国际法律制度领域的基本问题研究上,而未真正对气候变化国际法律制度进行认真剖析,找出其目前和未来发展阶段的不足之处;更没有在国际实证分析的基础上,结合我国目前的实际情况,做出完整的法律构架,实现国际法的国内法转化,使气候变化的应对能真正落到实处,毕竟《京都议定书》的实现需要各国知之践行;尽管有必要强调共同但区别原则,但是中国作为负责任的大国,有必要提升“道义责任理念”,从自身内部法律实践做起,为温室气体的减排落实真正尽一份力。     

Estimating the probability of allelic drop-out of STR alleles in forensic genetics

In crime cases with available DNA evidence, the amount of DNA is often sparse due to the setting of the crime. In such cases, allelic drop-out of one or more true alleles in STR typing is possible. We present a statistical model for estimating the per locus and overall probability of allelic drop-out using the results of all STR loci in the case sample as reference. The methodology of logistic regression is appropriate for this analysis, and we demonstrate how to incorporate this in a forensic genetic framework.