Forensic identification science evidence since Daubert: Part I--A quantitative analysis of the exclusion of forensic identification science evidence

The U.S. Supreme Court decisions in Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals Inc. and Kumho Tire Co. Ltd. v. Carmichael transformed the way scientific expert evidence was reviewed in courts across the United States. To gauge the impact of these rulings on the admission of forensic identification evidence, the authors analyzed 548 judicial opinions from cases where admission of such evidence was challenged. Eighty-one cases (15%) involved exclusion or limitation of identification evidence, with 50 (65.7%) of these failing to meet the "reliability" threshold. This was largely because of a failure to demonstrate a sufficient scientific foundation for either the technique (27 cases) or the expert's conclusions (17 cases). The incidence of exclusion/limitation because of a lack of demonstrable reliability suggests that there is a continuing need for the forensic sciences to pursue research validating their underlying theories and techniques of identification to ensure their continued acceptance by the courts.     

暴力危险量表中文版的信度

目的引入、修订具有评估暴力危险及危险变化的暴力危险量表(Violence Risk Scale,VRS),对修订后的暴力危险量表中文版(VRS-C)进行信度检验。方法通过标准的翻译程序形成VRS-C,3位评估者独立评估14个案例以检验评分者信度,以125例来自成都安康医院监管病区、四川华西法医学鉴定中心法医精神病学教研室及华西心理卫生中心的精神疾病患者为被试,对VRS-C的信度进行检验。结果初步修订的VRS-C具有较好的评分者信度(ICC=0.80)、同质性信度(克朗巴赫α系数=0.921)、分半信度(0.906)及题总相关性(0.246～0.849)。结论初步修订的VRS-C具有较好的信度。     

How reliable is cloudsourcing? A review of articles in the technical media 2005–11

A review of articles in the technical media between 2005 and 3Q 2011 disclosed reports on 49 outages involving 20 cloudsourcing providers. Several of these were major events. Many caused difficulties for user-organisations’ staff. Some caused lengthy suspension of services by user-organisations to their customers. A number of them involved irretrievable loss of data. Many user-organisations have failed to risk-assess their use of cloudsourcing, and are exposing their businesses to unmanaged risks.     

Two-Year Reliability of the Propensity for Abusiveness Scale

The Propensity for Abusiveness Scale (PAS; Dutton [1995a] J. Fam. Violence 10[2]: 203–221) has been shown to correlate with both physical and psychological abuse in a variety of samples including gay men, assaultive males, and male and female college students (Clift, 2001; Dutton et al., 2001). For the current study, 27 male and 37 female university students completed the PAS during the 1998–1999 and the 2000–2001 school years. A 2-year test–retest reliability coefficient of r = .851 was found for women and a reliability coefficient of r = .629 was found for men. The combined sample had a reliability coefficient of r = .774. Moderate test–retest reliability coefficients were also found for each of the subscales.     

Preventing Transboundary Crises: The Management and Regulation of Setbacks

Setbacks—unanticipated, unwanted, and often sudden checks on moving forward—are common in crisis prevention. Managing setbacks, however, is rarely discussed. Even less discussed is the central role that setback management can play in preventing transboundary crises across interdependent critical infrastructures for electricity, water, transportation, and financial services. With a focus on the ongoing financial crisis and on strategies for resilience and anticipation, the article draws out implications for crisis prevention as the first, rather than last, line of defense in managing future crises.     

交通系统可靠性研究综述

交通运输网络可靠性对于交通运输这一生命线系统是否良性循环、发展的重要性研究已日益为业内所重视。在此基础上对连通可靠性、出行时间可靠性、容量可靠性、畅通可靠性等交通系统性能评价指标及其相互关系的正确、客观分析对于路网可靠与否显得至关重要。而交通运输网络实战应用中亟待解决的几组关键性技术问题则将直接影响研究成果对于路网的实用程度。     

PICKING CHERRIES WITH BLINDERS ON: A COMMENT ON ERICKSON ET AL. (2007) REGARDING THE USE OF TESTS IN FAMILY COURT*

Erickson, Lilienfeld, and Vitacco's (2007/this issue ) review of the suitability and limitations of psychological tests invites legal and mental health professionals to rely on it as an objective guide for selecting, using, and admitting psychological tests in family court matters. Unfortunately, their discussion is marred by a pronounced bias in favor of multiscale, objective personality inventories and against performance‐based or projective instruments. This bias is evident not only in their unbalanced emphasis on the strengths of the former and weaknesses of the latter, but also in their use of selective citations and loaded language in launching what amounts to a polemical argument in support of tests that they favor. Their discussion of the Rorschach inkblot test is particularly misleading. This article refutes their unwarranted criticisms of the theoretical underpinnings of the Rorschach test, its research base, its norms, its interscorer reliability, the validity of its scores, and its admissibility in the courtroom. The value of multimethod assessments that include the use of direct clinical observation of performance under standardized conditions in custody evaluations is highlighted.     

A Test of the DSP Sexing Method on CT Images from a Modern French Sample

The hip bone is considered to be one of the most reliable indicators in sex determination. The aim of this study was to test the reliability of the DSP method for the hip bone proposed by Murail et al. (Bull Mem Soc Anthropol Paris, 17, 2005, 167) on a sample from a present‐day population in France (52 males and 54 females). Ten linear measurements were collected from three‐dimensional models derived from computed tomography images (CTI). To quantify the proportions of correct sex determinations, a more rigorous posterior probability threshold of 0.95 was applied. Using all 10 measurements, 92.3% of males and 97.2% of females were sexed correctly. The percentage of undetermined specimens varied depending on the used combination of measurements; however, all sexes were assigned with a 100% accuracy. This study proves that DSP is an appropriate and reliable tool for sex determination, based on dimensions obtained from CTI.     

Validity and reliability of the VRAG in a forensic psychiatric medium security population in Flanders

Since the development of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), one of the most widely used actuarial risk assessment instruments, numerous replication studies have shown its usefulness in predicting (violent) recidivism among various offender populations. It is not clear, however, whether these findings can be generalized to forensic psychiatric patients admitted to a medium security forensic psychiatric unit in the Flemish part of Belgium. Therefore, the main aim of this study was to test the predictive validity and reliability of the VRAG in a sample of 191 Flemish medium security patients. The mean follow-up period was 2.4 years. Contrary to the expectations, the VRAG was unable to significantly predict any kind of outcome. Possible explanations are discussed and further research with the VRAG in Flanders, and its recently revised version, is recommended.     

Repeatability and reproducibility of comparison decisions by firearms examiners

In a comprehensive study to assess various aspects of the performance of qualified forensic firearms examiners, volunteer examiners compared both bullets and cartridge cases fired from three different types of firearms. They rendered opinions on each comparison according to the Association of Firearm & Tool Mark Examiners (AFTE) Range of Conclusions, as Identification, Inconclusive (A, B, or C), Elimination, or Unsuitable. In this part of the study, comparison sets used previously to characterize the overall accuracy of examiners were blindly resubmitted to examiners to assess the repeatability (105 examiners; 5700 comparisons of bullets and cartridge cases) and reproducibility (191 examiners of bullets, 193 of cartridge cases; 5790 comparisons) of firearms examinations. Data gathered using the prevailing AFTE Range were also recategorized into two hypothetical scoring systems. Consistently positive differences between observed agreement and expected agreement indicate that the repeatability and reproducibility of examiners exceed chance agreement. When averaged over bullets and cartridge cases, the repeatability of comparison decisions (involving all five levels of the AFTE Range) was 78.3% for known matches and 64.5% for known nonmatches. Similarly averaged reproducibility was 67.3%% for known matches and 36.5% for known nonmatches. For both repeatability and reproducibility, many of the observed disagreements were between a definitive and inconclusive category. Examiner decisions are reliable and trustworthy in the sense that identifications are unlikely when examiners are comparing non-matching items, and eliminations are unlikely when they are comparing matching items.