THE EFFECT OF GENDER ON THE DECISION TO INCARCERATE BEFORE AND AFTER THE INTRODUCTION OF SENTENCING GUIDELINES*

The present study explores the relationships between gender and imprisonment decisions in Minnesota before and after the introduction of sentencing guidelines. Results from a series of logistic regression models indicate that gender alone did not have a significant impact on the likelihood of imprisonment, but women with dependent children were significantly less likely to be imprisoned before sentencing guidelines and in the years subsequent to their implementation. The findings suggest that despite the introduction of sentencing reforms, court officials tend to return to issues of substantive justice, and they appear unable to shed their individual or organizational ideas of fairness in sentencing.     

ENTER THE DRAGON: INSIDE CHINESE HUMAN SMUGGLING ORGANIZATIONS*

This paper examines the inner workings of Chinese human smuggling organizations. Contrary to widely held conceptions about Chinese organized crime, most alien smugglers are otherwise ordinary citizens whose familial networks and fortuitous social contacts have enabled them to pool resources to transport human cargoes around the world. They come from diverse backgrounds and form temporary alliances to carry out smuggling operations. With the exception of a shared commitment to making money, little holds them together. The smuggling organizations mostly resemble ad hoc task forces and are assembled for specific operations. These organizations have clear divisions of labor with limited hierarchical structures. We discuss the theoretical implications of their unique organizational characteristics.     

The race may be close but my horse is going to win: Wish fulfillment in the 1980 presidential election

Using data from the 1980 U.S. presidential election, we investigate the extent to which voter expectations about candidate electoral success and margin of victory are subject to systematic biases. In particular, we examine the extent to which candidate supporters overestimate their choice's likelihood of success. After finding a rather dramatic bias in the direction of wishful thinking, we review alternative explanations of this phenomenon, including a model based on nonrandom contact networks and one based on preference-related differences in expectations about exogenous variables that could affect the election outcome.     

C. Reviews: general

THE HISTORY OF AL‐TABARI. VOL. III: THE CHILDREN OF ISRAEL. Translated by WILLIAM M. BRINNER. Albany, N.Y., SUNY Press, 1991. xii, 194 pp. $44.00 (hb), $14.95 (pb).

THE HISTORY OF AL‐TABARI. VOL. XXXIII: STORM AND STRESS ALONG THE NORTHERN FRONTIERS OF THE ‘ABBASID CALIPHATE. Translated by C.E. BOSWORTH. Albany, N.Y., SUNY Press, 1991. xix, 239 pp. $57.50 (hb), $18.95 (pb).

THE AWAKENING OF PERSIA: THE REIGN OF NASR AL‐DIN SHAH 1848–1896. By A.J. ABRAHAM. USA, Vande Vere Publishing, 1992. 64pp. $18.95.

THE EMERGENCE OF KURDISH NATIONALISM AND THE SHAIKH SAID REBELLION, 1880–1925. By ROBERT OLSON. Austin, University of Texas Press, 1992.

THE ARAB BUREAU: BRITISH POLICY IN THE MIDDLE EAST, 1916–1920. By BRUCE WESTRATE. University Park, PA, Pennsylvania State University Press, 1992. xvi, 240 pp. $35.

DIE TÜRKEI UND ÄGYPTEN IN DER WELTWIRTSCHAFTSKRISE 1929–1933. By CAMILLA DAWLETSCHIN‐LINDER. (Studien zur modernen Geschichte, 40). Stuttgart, Franz Steiner Verlag, 1989. xviii, 187 pp. 20 tables, 6 diagrams. DM 68‐.

EGYPT FROM INDEPENDENCE TO REVOLUTION, 1919–1952. By SELMA BOTMAN. Syracuse, Syracuse University Press, 1991.

EXPULSION OF THE PALESTINIANS: THE CONCEPT OF ‘TRANSFER’ IN ZIONIST POLITICAL THOUGHT 1882–1948. By NUR MASALHA. Washington, DC, Institute for Palestine Studies, 1992. iii, 235pp. $24.95 (hb), $11.95 (pb).

TRANSITION TO SELF‐GOVERNMENT: PRACTICAL STEPS TOWARD ISRAELI‐PALESTINIAN PEACE. Report of a study group convened by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, ANN MOSELY LESCH, principal author. Indiana University Press, 1993. 160pp. £22.50 (hb), £9.99 (pb).

GREATER SYRIA: THE HISTORY OF AN AMBITION. By DANIEL PIPES. New York and Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1990. viii, 240pp.

IBN SAUD: FOUNDER OF A KINGDOM. By LESLIE McLOUGHLIN. Basingstoke, Macmillan in association with St Antony's College, Oxford, 1993. 240pp. £40.00.

THE DESPAIRING DEVELOPER: DIARY OF AN AID WORKER IN THE MIDDLE EAST. By TIMOTHY MORRIS. London, Tauris, 1991.

A MODERN CULTURAL HISTORY OF BAHRAIN. By SAMI A. HANNA. Bahrain, National Council for Culture Arts and Literature, 1991. 107pp.

THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE GULF WAR. By KAMRAN MOFID. London, Routledge, 1990. xxiv, 177pp.

EARLY ARABIC POETRY: MARATHI AND SU'LUK POEMS, Vol. 1. Edition, translation, and commentary by ALAN JONES. (Oxford Oriental Institute Monographs, 14.) Reading, Ithaca Press, 1992. ix, 270 pp. Map. £25.00.

RELIGION, LEARNING AND SCIENCE IN THE ‘ABBASID PERIOD. Edited by M.J.L. YOUNG, J.D. LATHAM and R.B. SERJEANT. (The Cambridge History of Arabic Literature.) Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1991. xxi, 587pp. £ 60.00 (hb).

THREE SHADOW PLAYS. By MUHAMMAD IBN DANIYAL. Edited by PAUL KAHLE. Critical apparatus by DEREK HOPWOOD. Introductory Essay by MUSTAFA BADAWI. (E.J.W. Gibb Memorial, New Series, 32.) Cambridge and Warminster, Gibb Memorial Trust/Aris and Phillips, 1992. 154pp. in Arabic and 30pp. in English. £12.00.

GENRE AND LANGUAGE IN MODERN ARABIC LITERATURE. By SASSON SOMEKH. Wiesbaden, Harrassowittz, 1991.

DER ARABISCHE DIALEKT DER JUDEN VON ‘AQRA UND ARBIL (Semitica Viva, 5.) By OTTO JASTROW. Wiesbaden, Harrassowitz, 1990. 438pp. DM 112.‐

1 For technical reasons, the symbol ‘e’ has been substituted for the ‘inverted e’ of the original throughout this review. [—Ed.]

WADAAN: REINFORCING READING/WRITING/FIRST LEVEL ARABIC COURSE, Vol.4. By DIONISIUS A. AGIUS, and PARWEEN N. ARIF. Leeds, University of Leeds, 1991. 65 pp.

HAYYAN BINA: KITAB AL‐TAMARIN. DRILLS/FIRST LEVEL ARABIC COURSE, Vol.5. By DIONISIUS A. AGIUS. Leeds, University of Leeds, 1991. 111 pp.

MUGHAMARAT ‘AJIBA FI QISAS MUFIDA: THIRD LEVEL ARABIC COURSE BOOK 1. By PARWEEN N. ARIF and DIONISIUS A. AGIUS. Leeds, University of Leeds, 1991. 64 pp.

UNVEILING ISLAM. By ROGER DU PASQUIER. Cambridge, Islamic Texts Society, 1992. viii, 157pp. £6.95.

CULTURAL SCHIZOPHRENIA. By DARYUSH SHAYEGAN. London, Saqi Books, 1992. vii, 188pp.     

Contribution à une analyse narrative de la théorie institutionnelle

Conclusion Que faut-il penser de la co-existence de trois modèles différents pour interpréter l'élément central de la théorie institutionnelle de MacCormick? Cette pluralité de modèles n'est source de perturbations que pour ceux qui tiennent à défendre l'idée selon laquelle il n'y a qu'une seule forme possible de discours juridique. Dès qu'il est accepté — comme hypothèse de base — que les formes d'organisation de ce type de discours peuvent être multiples, la perspective est inversée.C'est le schéma explicatif — dit schéma narratif — qui est alors unique. Quant aux différentes variantes de la formule de MacCormick, elles représentent les altérations de cette définition en fonction de paramètres identifiables — et identifiés — comme le statut des différents actants et acteurs, la définition de l'objet de valeur final dont ils cherchent à s'emparer et les objets de valeur d'usage dont ils se servent.L'éclatement de la formule de Maccormick ne correspond alors plus à un rejet mais bien à une mise en question. Cette remise en question débouchant sur la reconnaissance de plusieurs schémas narratifs, nous devons nous demander dans quelle mesure notre perception de la phasep correspond à l'idée que s'en fait MacCormick. S'agit-il seulement de la procédure au sens juridique du mot ou de tout un ensemble d'actes permettant de persuader un destinateur comme un juge ou une administration de la coïncidence entre un parcours narratif effectif et le type idéal de parcours narratif qu'ils tirent de la lecture des normes juridiques?S'il s'agit bien de la procédure au sens juridique de ce mot, il faut alors préciser au terme de cette analyse sémio-narrative que l'ensemble des phénomènes pragmatiques — comme les interactions dans le cas d'une procédure orale — ne sont pris en compte ni par la formule de MacCormick, ni par la présente discussion mais qu'ils relèvent d'une recherche particulière sur cette dimension supplémentaire, certes compatible avec la théorie sémiotique mais pas avec la théorie institutionnelle de MacCormick. Pour conclure, nous dirons donc qu'il est possible d'intégrer certains éléments de cette dernière théorie dans un cadre plus général mais qu'elle sera vite transformée à la fois de l'intérieur par la reconnaissance d'une pluralité des formes du discours et de l'extérieur par son intégration partielle dans un schéma plus large qui vise à décrire un phénomène dans son intégralité.