The Political Economy of Myanmar’s Transition

Since holding elections in 2010, Myanmar has transitioned from a direct military dictatorship to a formally democratic system and has embarked on a period of rapid economic reform. After two decades of military rule, the pace of change has startled almost everyone and led to a great deal of cautious optimism. To make sense of the transition and assess the case for optimism, this article explores the political economy of Myanmar’s dual transition from state socialism to capitalism and from dictatorship to democracy. It analyses changes within Myanmar society from a critical political economy perspective in order to both situate these developments within broader regional trends and to evaluate the country’s current trajectory. In particular, the emergence of state-mediated capitalism and politico-business complexes in Myanmar’s borderlands are emphasised. These dynamics, which have empowered a narrow oligarchy, are less likely to be undone by the reform process than to fundamentally shape the contours of reform. Consequently, Myanmar’s future may not be unlike those of other Southeast Asian states that have experienced similar developmental trajectories.     

不对称结构和本体性安全视角下的中缅关系：依赖与偏离

当前缅甸政治转型对中缅关系带来的影响已成为国内外不少学者关注的焦点。本文试图从不对称权力结构和本体性安全的视角，对中缅双边关系的历史与现实进行理论探索，分析缅甸对中国产生依赖性与离心力的结构限制。本文认为，缅甸对中国形成既依赖又偏离的两种倾向是由中缅不对称结构关系决定的，在此结构下缅甸对自身本体性安全的关注起着关键作用。因而，政治转型后的缅甸在对中国的依赖与偏离的博弈中孰强孰弱，主要取决于不对称权力结构中缅甸的本体性安全是否能得到充分保障。     

Negotiating access to populations of concern in South-East Asia

South-East Asia is home to both conflict and ‘natural’ disasters which have caused significant displaced populations. Given this context, there is a need to better understand the motivations of the multiple actors involved in negotiating humanitarian responses, and to account for the impact the finished agreement has on the region both in the short and long terms. This article investigates the motivations behind two humanitarian responses in South-East Asia. The first case is the set of humanitarian responses to the Indochinese exodus in the 1970s and 1980s. The second case is the humanitarian response to those affected by Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar during the late 2000s and early 2010. Both of these agreements have been held up as historic and ground breaking achievements within the international relations of South-East Asia. This article assesses these agreements to identify the multiple levels of governance involved and the individual actors’ motivations behind them. It argues that greater appreciation of these dynamics will contribute to understanding the governance of humanitarian responses to populations of concern in South-East Asia. This will be important to consider as new crises emerge that demand new negotiations within a crowded field of actors governing humanitarian responses in the region.     

MYANMAR: RELIGIOUS MINORITIES AND CONSTITUTIONAL QUESTIONS

This article examines the experience of religious minorities in Myanmar between 2011 and 2017 in the context of the 2008 constitution and a new system of governance. It highlights the precarity of religious minorities and argues that neither the constitution nor the state were reliable sources of protection or redress during this period. The first section considers the multiple identities of religious minorities with regard to citizenship and national belonging. The second section elucidates how an enabling environment for Buddhist nationalism emerged and what types of actions state and non-state actors have taken with regard to religious minorities. The final section addresses the 2008 constitution and rule of law in Myanmar in order to understand the challenges for religious minorities in securing justice and protection.     

缅甸外资法律政策研究

近年来,缅甸政府特别注重利用外资来促进国内经济发展,立法理念也有了很大变化,外资立法不断体系化。目前,外商在缅甸投资的法律环境有很大好转,投资优惠政策明显增多,纠纷解决机制也不断完善。     

缅甸油气产业开发现状与外国参与情况评析

缅甸油气领域正处于开发活跃期,但油气产量不均衡,油少气多。西方发达国家企业曾长期是缅甸油气开发的先锋和主力,然而,本世纪以来,东盟及缅甸周边国家石油企业跃升为缅甸油气开发的新主力军。2010年缅甸开启民主进程,西方企业投资缅甸油气领域将出现恢复性增长,但难以改变现有的外资参与结构。     

缅甸油气资源开发的地缘政治博弈及其对我国的影响

缅甸得天独厚的地缘优势和丰富的油气资源引起了世界的关注。为获取能源、保障本国经济发展，相关国家在缅甸展开了激烈的竞争，因此，对缅甸油气资源开发的地缘政治博弈接踵而至。缅甸政府也利用油气作为一种外交手段和工具，达到其在政治、经济上的目的。     

试析缅甸军人政权的发展趋势

尽管缅甸军人有继续长期执政的能力,但军人退出政治舞台是不可避免的事情.本文对缅甸军人退出政治舞台的前提条件以及途径和方式进行了初步的分析.     

缅甸2010年大选前的政治经济形势

缅甸2010年大选在即,除了对外关系上与美国的关系出现转机之外,其国内政治经济形势也很值得分析.首先是民主运动节节退却,民盟将不参加大选;种族骚乱有惊无险,包括果敢在内的三支少数民族地方武装已经被改编成边防军;经济上受惠于宽松的环境,也取得了较大的发展.     

缅甸禁毒执法现状及国际合作(编译)

缅甸政府坚信最大限度的打击和根除毒品是本民族的责任。政府为降低毒品威胁,加大执法力度,减少毒品产量。同时也充分认识到在打击和根除毒品这一问题上,单靠一个国家的力量是有限的,必须加强和国际社会的合作,尤其是与周边邻国的合作。