Locating Al Qaeda's Center of Gravity: The Role of Middle Managers

This article claims that the ongoing debate about the structure and dynamics of Al Qaeda has failed to appreciate the importance of an organizational layer that is situated between the top leadership and the grass-roots. Rather than being “leaderless,” it is the group's middle management that holds Al Qaeda together. In Clausewitzian terms, Al Qaeda's middle managers represent a center of gravity—a “hub of … power and movement”—that facilitates the grass-roots’ integration into the organization and provides the top leadership with the global reach it needs in order to carry out its terrorist campaign, especially in Europe and North America. They are, in other words, the connective tissue that makes Al Qaeda work. The article substantiates this hypothesis by providing a number of case studies of Al Qaeda middle managers, which illustrate the critical role they have played in integrating the grass-roots with the top leadership. The policy implications are both obvious and important. If neither the top leadership nor the grass-roots alone can provide Al Qaeda with strategic momentum, it will be essential to identify and neutralize the middle managers, and—in doing so—“cause the network to collapse on itself.”     

When do Economic Perceptions Matter for Party Approval?

Do economic perceptions influence partisan preferences or vice versa? We argue that the direction of influence between government approval and economic perceptions is conditional on the state of the economy. Under conditions of economic crisis, when economic signals are relatively unambiguous, perceptions of the economy can be expected to exogenously influence government approval but this is not found when the economy is experiencing a more typical pattern of moderate growth and economic signals are more mixed. We test these arguments using British election panel surveys covering electoral cycles of moderate economic growth (1997–2001) and dramatic and negative disruption (2005–2010). We examine the most commonly employed measures of retrospective economic perceptions and estimate a range of models using structural equations modelling. We demonstrate that when the economy is performing extremely badly economic perceptions have an exogenous effect on government approval and provide a means of electoral accountability, but this is not the case in under more normal circumstances.     

A biomechanical reconstruction of a wound caused by a glass shard--a case report

During the course of a criminal trial, an investigating pathologist is commonly asked how much force was required to produce an injury. This subjective opinion is based on the pathologist's previous experience of dealing with wounds inflicted with similar weapons. However, in the case of stab wounds inflicted by broken glass, it is unlikely that two glass fragments would be physically similar. In the case studied, two theories were examined: that a wound resulted from a thrown glass fragment or that it had been caused as a stab injury by the glass held in the bare hand. The investigation involved quantifying the energy required for human tissue penetration, comparison of sharpness, a biomechanical analysis of throwing actions and testing of the hypothesis that if the glass shard were used as a stabbing implement it would result in a cut to the hand.The investigation utilised a scientific methodology that reduced the need for speculative (though informed) opinion from the pathologist by producing quantitative results.     

Contrasting attitudinal bases to Euroscepticism amongst the French electorate

This article examines the different attitudinal bases which potentially contribute to Euroscepticism amongst the electorates of Extreme Left-wing and Right-wing parties in France, and in particular of the Communist Party and the Front National. Controlling for other explanations of anti-European sentiment, Left–Right economic and ethnocentric attitudes are found to be strong predictors of pro-, anti- and indifferent stances on the European issue. Moreover, despite the existence of an important electoral pool on the Extreme Right, which possesses both Left-wing economic and Right-wing ethnocentric attitudinal bases to its Eurosceptic position, the nature of the economic issues on which these voters hold a Left-wing position reveals a perspective in many ways more compatible with the Extreme Right than with any Left-wing conceptualisation of economic policy. Electorally, this divergence in mass ideological demand would seem to rule out any future long-term partisan realignment around the European issue.     

The roadmap to net-zero emission: Do geopolitical risk and energy transition matter?

Global crises have heightened policy uncertainties and efforts to address global climate change. Limited evidence exists in the literature on geopolitical risk's direct and indirect roles in addressing global emissions. In this study, we examine whether geopolitical risk could impede or facilitate efforts to attain a net-zero emissions target through energy transition using panel data for 42 countries from 1990 to 2020. Various econometric techniques were applied in this study to present robust findings and reliable conclusions. Estimates from the Driscoll-Kraay, Lewbel two-stage least squares and method of moment regression techniques consistently showed that countries' geopolitical risk directly increases emissions (total greenhouse gas, carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide). At the same time, energy transition, measured with renewable energy consumption, mitigates these emissions. In addition, evidence from the partial linear functional-coefficient model technique indicates that renewable energy consumption consistently mitigates emissions when geopolitical is minimal (at a minimum and mean level). However, the role of renewable energy consumption in reducing emissions becomes weaker when geopolitical risk is heightened—thus, when geopolitical risk reaches its maximum level. We recommend that efforts to sustain renewable energy transition and maintain geopolitical stability are vital for achieving net-zero emissions and climate change mitigation.     

PARALLEL IMPORTATION AND SERVICE QUALITY: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF COMPETITION BETWEEN DVDS AND CINEMAS IN NEW ZEALAND

Investigations into the causes and effects of parallel importinghave concentrated on price discrimination, but arbitrage canalso occur on non-price dimensions. Using a natural experimentin the New Zealand film distribution industry between May 1998and November 2001, we examine the effect of parallel importingon quality as it relates to the timing of the availability offilm media. We demonstrate that (a) cinema revenues were underminedas consumers substituted viewing films on parallel importedDVDs for the cinema format and (b) that studios responded tothe threat of parallel imported DVDs by bringing forward therelease of films into New Zealand cinemas. The reduced delaybetween US and New Zealand cinematic release dates is shownto be consistent with the introduction of competition when timingis a dimension of quality and choice. We conclude that parallelimportation of DVDs almost certainly resulted in a net increasein welfare in New Zealand.     

Building bridges across a double divide: alliances between US and Latin American labour and NGOs

Trying to build alliances that span the divide between trade unions and NGOs as well as the divide between the North and the South might seem a utopian task. But this is exactly what an imaginative new generation of organisers from the Western hemisphere's labour movements and NGOs are trying to do. This paper analyses two very different efforts working to bridge this ‘double divide’. The first is a combination of organisations, including unions and NGOs in both North and South, that are focusing on blatant violations of the dignity of workers in apparel export processing zones in the South. This ‘basic rights complex’ has resulted in important victories. A second complex of organisations, also involving unions and NGOs in both North and South, has raised broad macro issues of governance focusing particularly on the anti‐democratic character of current proposals for a free trade area of the Americas. Neither of these complexes is without its weaknesses, but each makes it clear that bridging the double divide should be thought of not as a utopian dream but as work in progress.     

Decisions: Carltona and the CUC Code

The Committee of University Chairman publishes a code of good practice designed, among other things, to ensure clarity about the authority on which decisions are taken on behalf of universities, subordinate domestic legislation created and the exercise of discretion regulated. In Carltona Ltd.v. Commissioners of Works [1943] 2 All ER 560 AC the question was whether civil servants were acting ultra vires if they acted on behalf of a competent authority without reference to that authority. Oxford and Cambridge, which preserve an ancient system of governance by direct academic democracy, remain testbeds of this principle, for their administrators are in effect their ‘civil servants’, not their managers. This article examines the questions which are arising as both universities begin to create Senior Management Teams, and the implications for the higher education sector more widely.