Do volatile voters vote less correctly? An analysis of correct voting among vote (intention) switchers in US presidential election campaigns

The literature on electoral volatility and the literature on electoral campaigns hold contradictory views on voters switching vote (intention) during the campaign. In this note, we shed new light on this contradiction, making two contributions. First, we investigate the extent to which stable and volatile voters choose the correct party. Second, we distinguish levels of correct voting and the impact of the act of switching on the correctness of the vote. Our analyses of vote-switching in American elections show that, while volatile voters are less likely to vote correctly, they are more likely to switch from an incorrect to the correct party than vice versa. Furthermore, we show that following the campaign more closely makes voters more likely to switch vote (intention) towards the correct party.     

Small arms and light weapons: the disjunction problem

ABSTRACT

Growing in range and urgency, humanitarian needs now pose increasingly acute questions for national security policy formulation. Whether over forced migration, food scarcity or nefarious electronic penetration, state security preferences face uneasy accommodations with individual needs be it for child survival, basic sustenance or rights to privacy. This paper deliberates a further field of increasingly apparent value contest: that involving the transfer, diversion and lethal use of small arms and light weapons (SALW). After outlining the scale of this phenomenon, existing regulatory mechanisms over SALW transfers are assessed. It is argued that these controls are inadequate, a deficiency that is embedded within a range of inter-linked disjunctions. They are outlined in a model that is evaluated against empirical findings. Where SALW control inadequacy is causally connected to the disjunctive model, it is argued, current levels of SALW-induced casualties are unlikely to abate. The paper concludes by considering feasible options for enhanced management of global SALW proliferation.     

The Space Between: Demonization of Opponents and Policy Divergence

Prior research on policy conflicts indicates a tendency among policy actors to misperceive the influence of actors engaged in policy debates based on the degree of distance between their relative policy positions. This research develops a measure for assessing the degree and direction of the misperception effect. This measure is then utilized as a dependent variable to assess the relationship between theoretically relevant factors and the degree to which actors will exaggerate the influence of their opponents and allies. The research uses original survey data of policy actors engaged in the debate over hydraulic fracturing in New York. The results indicate misperceptions of relative influence are prevalent and most associated with the experience of a policy loss and holding relatively extreme policy beliefs. The findings provide new insight into factors that influence the demonization of political opponents. These insights are timely in the context of polarized debates over environmental and energy policy in the United States.     

What encourages households to adopt rice as a new crop? Understanding gender roles and perceptions in households in northern Namibia

This article investigates how the introduction of new crops influences intra-household decision-making among the Ovambo in northern Namibia where women are responsible for crop farming, while men are engaged in livestock farming. It examines gender relations that underlie daily activities. The findings of the study show that women try new crops on their own or with the help of their children and do not negotiate with their husband, mothers, or brothers over household resources such as land, labour, and the cash of other family members. Women avoid conflicts with family members, but may have an increased perception of contribution to the household if they succeed in introducing new crops.     

“Gendering” European security: policy changes,reform coalitions and opposition in the OSCE

The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has rarely been considered in scholarship on gender and security, even though it was one of the regional security organisations whose gender policy predated the United Nations Security Council’s call for more international attention to issues related to women, peace and security in October 2000. Based on an analysis of official OSCE documents and on semi-structured interviews, we trace the integration of gender issues in the OSCE and explore the rationale behind and the challenges associated with it. We identify two phases of gender policy change in the OSCE and show how the integration of UNSCR 1325 brought about an expansion of OSCE gender policy from an exclusive focus on “soft” security issues towards increased inclusion of gender in the area of “hard” security. Drawing on historical and feminist institutionalism, we argue that reform coalitions were crucial for the policy changes in the OSCE but that they encountered institutional and ideational barriers, which hampered implementation of the gender policy. In light of rising opposition, our analysis warns of a backlash that might jeopardise current achievements.     

Changing knowledge and perceptions of African indigenous vegetables: the role of community-based nutritional outreach

African indigenous vegetables (AIVs) have potential to sustainably address malnutrition, a growing problem in sub-Saharan Africa. Their consumption is however, limited by poor perceptions and lack of awareness of nutritional benefits. There is limited evidence of the effectiveness of community-focused information dissemination approaches in influencing participants’ perceptions and uptake of innovations in AIVs to address malnutrition. This article aims to fill this knowledge gap, using a case study focusing on pastoral communities in Monduli district in northern Tanzania. Target communities participated in a community-based nutritional outreach facilitated by the Good Seed Initiative (GSI), held at Monduli district hospital in September 2014. The results provide evidence of the achievements of the GSI intervention, and the effectiveness of alternative information dissemination approaches.     

肌肉电导率和pH两指标联用推断死亡时间

目的探讨肌肉浸渍液电导率(electrical conductivity,EC)、pH两指标联用在PMI推断上的意义。方法 SD大鼠处死后,保存在25℃环境中,于不同PMI提取大鼠后肢肌肉制备匀浆液,测定浸渍液EC和pH。分析EC、pH两指标联合使用推断PMI的意义。结果 EC、pH两指标随PMI均呈现阶段性变化:1d内,pH明显下降,EC无明显变化;2~3d,EC、pH均快速增大;4~10d,EC继续增大,而pH变化不明显。EC、pH联合使用,有助于划分PMI时段,以及特定时段内指标的优化:1d内,选择pH最佳,2~3d,EC、pH联用最佳,4~10d,选择EC最佳。结论 EC、pH联用有助于提高PMI推断的准确性。     

The social semiotic of homophone phrase substitution in Chinese netizen discourse

The paper addresses an ingenious way by which Chinese netizens manage to reach their intended audiences under the radar of censors surveying the Internet in China. One specifically Chinese social use of language in this respect is the option to express criticism by using inoffensive characters that share the same or similar pronunciation with politically sensitive phrasing. We identify this type of expression as homophone phrase substitution (HPS). The device has been part of Chinese since ancient times under the name political metaphor. We address the main constraints at work in HPS, especially the role of voice (prosodic contour) that guides the construction of two divergent kinds of aboutness. Leaving aside its critical function in contemporary society, by contrasting HPS with verbal irony, metaphor, and Australian rhyming slang, and by drawing on semiologie and semiotics, indirect speech acts and implicit deixis, we suggest that this linguistic option throws new light on the semantic/pragmatic distinction.     

Identifying the Causes of Issue Attention and Policy Change: Evidence from U.S. Offshore Oil and Natural Gas Drilling Policy, 2008

The flow of attention in the policy process is dynamic and disruptive. While we know changes in issue attention often result in policy change, the causal mechanisms underlying the different stages of the attention allocation process remain unclear. This article uses Punctuated Equilibrium Theory to examine an underdeveloped aspect of issue attention within policy‐making institutions: how specific policy indicators influence the entry and exit of issues on policy‐making agendas. Partisan issue attention in the House of Representatives is used to analyze a significant change to U.S. offshore oil and natural gas drilling policy in 2008. The results highlight how historically high gasoline prices precipitated a shift in attention to offshore drilling and subsequent policy change. Moreover, gasoline prices Granger‐cause attention to energy policy in partisan speeches over time. The analysis further reveals how competing policy frames and a salient focusing event shaped congressional and public discourse, leading to subsequent changes in attention. Taken together, the findings broaden our understanding of the policy process by identifying the specific forces behind the entry and exit of issues on the policy‐making agenda.     

公共服务供给机制转型中的公益性岗位研究

我国自2002年起开始施行公益性岗位的政策,这一政策对拓宽就业渠道、缓解失业压力起到了一定的作用。但目前依靠政府进一步开发和购买公益性岗位的难度很大。本文对国内外公共服务供给机制转型进行了比较分析,在此基础上提出以下建议:我国应进一步完善公共服务的供给机制,以社区为平台,通过推动购买服务的方式,调动社会组织服务社区和吸收就业的功能,以推动公益性岗位的增加。