AGE,DIFFERENTIAL EXPECTATIONS,AND CRIME DESISTANCE*

We specify an individual-level model linking crime desistance to estimates of legal risk, differential expectations, degree of past success at legitimate and criminal pursuits, and age. OLS and logistic regression procedures are used to estimate the model using longitudinal data on serious, previously imprisoned offenders. As predicted, age decreases estimates of the likely payoffs from crime and legitimate employment. Contrary to predictions, age is unrelated to the perceived legal risk of renewed criminal participation. Age, past success at avoiding confinement, expectations of success from crime, and level of education are significant predictors of crime desistance. Neither the perceived legal risk of crime nor expectations of success through straight pursuits significantly predict desistance. We suggest an interpretation for these anomalous findings.     

A Prospective Longitudinal Study of Teen Court's Impact on Offending Youths' Behavior

Although teen court is the fastest growing alternative processing model in juvenile justice, there has been little systematic investigation of offenders' impressions of the process and no attempt to measure changes in delinquent behavior. This study employed a prospective longitudinal design to measure several impressions of teen court using a questionnaire, and changes in self‐reported delinquency using the YSR and CBCL. Impressions of teen court did not predict compliance with the teen court sentence or lower risk of recidivism once demographic and prior delinquency were taken into account, although delinquent behavior did decrease between intake and six months for boys, who reported more delinquent behavior at intake. Interpretation of these results involves teen court's location at the soft end of juvenile justice. Implications for net‐widening and changing not‐so‐delinquent youths' behavior are central to this discussion.     

Participatory Budgeting in Midwestern States: Democratic Connection or Citizen Disconnection?

What participation mechanisms connect citizens and city officials? Do they produce valued outcomes? Surveys of elected officials suggest that microlevel mechanisms such as direct citizen contact are more valuable in meeting participation goals than are mechanisms focusing on macrolevel concerns. However, there is a disconnect between perceptions about value and the use of mechanisms. State‐level participation requirements and a city manager have little effect on the value of a mechanism. These findings raise some questions: why are microlevel participation mechanisms favored, why do some mechanisms have value even though respondents have little experience with them, and why is there a misalignment between participatory goals and the mechanisms used?     

CRIMES,CRIME RATES,ARRESTS, AND ARREST RATIOS: IMPLICATIONS FOR DETERRENCE THEORY*

The relationship between crimes and arrests is one of the central issues in deterrence theory. There are several conceptual difficulties in attempting to assess whether arrests deter crimes or the number of crimes determine the number of arrests. These problems are compounded when rates are used to measure both variables. The issue is whether criminals respond to arrests or the police respond to changes in crime. The present analysis compares regression results when the variables are measured both as rates and raw numbers for three offenses: homicide, robbery, and burglary. The results indicate that arrests follow crimes. This suggests the need to reexamine some studies that argue that criminals’perceptions of arrest rates are an indication of deterrence.