国际核不扩散形势与世界安全——“第一届中英智库安全战略论坛暨国际核不扩散形势与世界安全”选辑

2010年11月10日,中国和平与发展研究中心与英国皇家三军防务研究所（RUSI）在北京共同举办＂第一届中英智库安全战略论坛暨国际核不扩散形势与世界安全研讨会＂。英方学者提交的论文可以反映西方主流智库学者在国际核裁军及核军控问题上的基本看法,现将其中两篇英文和中文翻译摘要刊出,以飨读者。     

REFLECTIONS ON THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL IN 2011REFLECTIONS ON THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL IN 2011

The first vision for removing the threat of nuclear weapons, within a year of their first use, was the far-reaching agenda of the Acheson Lilienthal Report on the International Control of Atomic Energy in 1946[1] proposing that all fissile material should be transferred to a new international agency (the Atomic Development Authority) which would release small amounts to individual nations for peaceful uses.This proposal, like many others, fell victim to the ideologically aggravated suspicions of the Cold War.But, over time, and even during periods of intense east-west suspicion, a substantial body of negotiated agreements has been achieved.Almost all necessarily involved the nuclear superpowers, who led the way in the expansion of nuclear weapons, and whose arsenals therefore needed to be limited as a precondition for achieving wider global nuclear stability.     

Communication in committees: who should listen?

In a parsimonious model of a collective decision problem with partially conflicting interests, we show that restricting communication may enhance decision quality. If disclosed information is observed by decision makers with different preferences, individuals may strategically withhold information. In this case, a committee member’s silence arouses the other members’ suspicions. As a consequence, in case of residual uncertainty, individual votes may react less to information that is publicly observed.     

A systematic approach to improve downstream single-cell analysis for the DEPArray™ technology

Most commercially available STR amplification kits have never been fully validated for low template DNA analysis, highlighting the need for testing different PCR kits and conditions for improving single-cell profiling. Here, current strategies rely mainly on adjusting PCR cycle number and analytical threshold settings, with a strong preference for using 30 amplification cycles and thresholds at 30–150 RFU for allele detection. This study aimed to (1) determine appropriate conditions for obtaining informative profiles utilizing a dilution series, and (2) test the outcome on single cells using the DEPArray™ technology. Four routinely applied forensic STR kits were compared by using three different amplification volumes and DNA dilutions down to 3.0 pg, while two well-performing kits were used for single/pooled leucocyte and sperm cell genotyping. Besides reduced costs, the results demonstrate that a 50%–75% PCR volume reduction was beneficial for peak height evaluation. However, this was counteracted by an increased artifact generation in diluted DNA volumes. Regarding profile completeness, the advantage of volume reduction was only prominent in samples processed with Fusion 6C. For single and pooled cells, ESIFast and NGMDetect provided a solid basis for consensus profiling regarding locus failure, although locus dropouts were generally observed as stochastic events. Amplification volume of 12.5 μL was confirmed as appropriate in terms of peak heights and stutter frequencies, with increased stutter peaks being the main artifact in single-cell profiles. Limitations associated with these analyses are discussed, providing a solid foundation for further studies on low template DNA.     

Longitudinal Bidirectional Relations among Parenting Quality,Parenting Stress,and Child Functioning in HIV-affected Families

Journal of Youth and Adolescence - Mothers living with HIV (MLH) face unique stressors impacting parenting, parenting stress, and child psychosocial functioning, but longitudinal, bidirectional...     

Mortality surveillance: 2004 to 2005 Florida hurricane-related deaths

During 2004 and 2005, Florida was struck by 8 hurricanes, resulting in 213 deaths. The Department of Health and Florida medical examiners monitor hurricane mortality surveillance. This study analyzed hurricane-related deaths reported by the Florida Medical Examiners Commission for 2004 to 2005. The objectives of this study were to (1) describe the Florida hurricane-related mortality for 2004 and 2005, (2) accurately characterize the hurricane-related deaths, and (3) identify strategies to prevent or reduce future hurricane deaths. For 2004, there were 144 total hurricane-related deaths. The majority (59%) occurred in the postimpact phase, with accidents accounting for 76% of deaths. Among these, over half were caused by trauma, followed by drowning, other injury, electrocution, and carbon monoxide poisoning. For 2005, there were 69 hurricane-related deaths. Sixty-one percent of deaths occurred in the postimpact phase, with accidents accounting for 86% of all deaths. Among these, over half were due to trauma, with drowning and carbon monoxide poisoning being the other major contributors. Most hurricane-related deaths are due to unintentional injury and therefore, preventable. Seventy-nine percent of deaths are in those aged 40 and older. Prevention messages should target high-risk, postimpact activities, especially in older adults.