Prediction,Proxies, and Power

Many enduring questions in international relations theory focus on power relations, so it is important that scholars have a good measure of relative power. The standard measure of relative military power, the capability ratio, is barely better than random guessing at predicting militarized dispute outcomes. We use machine learning to build a superior proxy, the Dispute Outcome Expectations (DOE) score, from the same underlying data. Our measure is an order of magnitude better than the capability ratio at predicting dispute outcomes. We replicate Reed et al. (2008) and find, contrary to the original conclusions, that the probability of conflict is always highest when the state with the least benefits has a preponderance of power. In replications of 18 other dyadic analyses that use power as a control, we find that replacing the standard measure with DOE scores usually improves both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample goodness of fit.     

The role of incentives in the deployment of technologies from cooperative R&D

Over 1,400 cooperative research and development agreements (CRADAs) were in place across the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) laboratory system in May 1995—indicating that a broad sampling of industry endorses the objectives of the National Competitiveness Technology Transfer Act of 1989. The law enables DOE's contractor-operated facilities, such as Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), to collaborate with companies, industrial consortia, universities, and even state and local governments. Positive impacts cited by industrial CRADA participants thus far include the improvement of existing products and manufacturing processes, the reduction of investment risks associated with cutting-edge research, and an increased awareness of important technical trends. However, such industrial benefits are often hard to measure; that represents a potential problem for federally funded R&D institutions, where metrics associated with tangible economic impacts are assuming greater prominence. Future political support for public/private partnerships may depend on steep growth in quantitative measures of economic value, based on the sale of patented products and services. Boosting such sales in a significant way, could, in turn, depend on the consistent application of incentive-based approaches that motivate individuals and organizations to aggressively pursue technology-based commercialization goals. In Oak Ridge, Tennessee, where Lockheed Martin Energy Systems manages ORNL and other DOE research and production facilities, broadly defined incentives have played a key role in facilitating the sale of licensed products and services. Cumulative sales totaled $102,000,000 in April 1995, with several innovations just beginning to enter the marketplace after years of engineering and product development. The same factors that impact technology deployment in these “stand-alone” licenses will play a key role in the deployment of inventions arising from CRADAs.     

Dietary health does affect histological age assessment: an evaluation of the Stout and Paine (1992) age estimation equation using secondary osteons from the rib

An age at death estimation equation that uses rib histological variables presented by Stout and Paine was used to evaluate a skeletal population of individuals with a known age at death and cause of death from either malnutrition or the niacin deficiency disease pellagra. The sample was comprised of 26 autopsied black South Africans. Histological analysis of mounted thin sections involved the microscopic measurement of cortical area and a count of the number of intact and fragmentary secondary osteons for the entire cross-section of the rib. Rib osteon population density values were then calculated for each case. It was found that this equation under-aged individuals on average by 29.2 years. Overall, secondary osteon size and Haversian canals tended to be larger than expected, while cortical bone area was less when compared with a control population. The implications of these findings are critical given that many of the skeletal remains examined by forensic anthropologists come from marginalized backgrounds, including malnutrition. This research suggests that measurements based on healthy cases may not be useful in an analysis of individuals with poor diet and health. It is argued that new standards for histological age assessment methods need to be created that account for variation in the health status of individuals examined by forensic anthropologists.     

Physical restraint in a therapeutic setting; a necessary evil?

Physical restraint of people experiencing mental health problems is a coercive and traumatic procedure which is only legally permitted if it is proportionate to the risk presented. This study sought to examine the decision-making processes used by mental health staff involved in a series of restraint episodes in an acute care setting. Thirty nurses were interviewed either individually or in focus groups to elicit their views on restraint and experience in specific incidents. Four factors which influenced the decision to restrain were identified: contextual demands; lack of alternatives; the escalatory effects of restraint itself; and perceptions of risk. While some of these factors are amenable to change through improvements in practice, training and organisational culture, nurses viewed restraint as a necessary evil, justified on the basis of the unpredictable nature of mental illness and the environment in which they worked.     

Die Europäische Bürgerinitiative – Gefährdung der Glaubwürdigkeit eines direktdemokratischen Instruments?

Mit Art 11 Abs 4 EUV idF des Vertrages von Lissabon wurde das Institut einer "Europäischen Bürgerinitiative" (EBI) vorgesehen. In dessen Ausführung hat die EU-Kommission Anfang Juni dieses Jahres den Entwurf einer Verordnung vorgelegt, der gegenwärtig im Europäischen Parlament beraten wird. Dieser Beitrag beschäftigt sich kritisch mit rechtlichen und operationalen Aspekten dieses Verordnungsentwurfes.     

An assessment of human performance in stabbing.

Stab-resistant body armour is now becoming a standard item of equipment for police officers in the United Kingdom. In the UK these are usually required to have a stab resistance as specified by the Police Scientific Development Branch KR42 standard [G. Parker, PSDB Stab Resistant Body Armour Test Procedure, Police Scientific Development Branch, Publication No 10/93, 1993]. There are several other test standards, all of which specify that body armour must resist penetration by a specific blade type delivered at a specific energy level or range of levels. However, the actual range of energy levels specified varies over almost an order of magnitude and the basis for these levels is not clearly defined. This paper describes tests to determine the energy range and characteristics of stabbing actions that might be directed against stab resistant body armour by an assailant. The energy and velocity that can be achieved in stabbing actions has been determined for a number of sample populations. Volunteers were asked to stab a target using an instrumented knife that measured the axial force and acceleration during the stabbing. The maximum energy obtained in underarm stabbing actions was 64 J whilst overarm stabbing actions could produce 115 J. The loads produced on contact with the target often approached 1000 N.     

UNCROC and the prevention of childhood obesity: the right not to have food advertisements on television

This article discusses how legal rights-based discourse could inform the response of Australian State and federal governments to the increasing prevalence of childhood obesity. The authors contend that the principles in the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (a treaty which has been ratified but not implemented) are capable of providing a basis for a legislative program to prevent childhood obesity. It is argued that an approach to legislation which is grounded on the basis of children's rights would require that there be restrictions on advertising food to children. The authors set out specific proposals for legislative reforms which the federal Parliament could enact to implement the Convention so as to restrict advertising to children. The scope of the discussion is then expanded to consider the implications of rights-based discourse in broader public health contexts.