Causal inference and American political development: contrasts and complementarities

Public Choice - Causal inference and American political development (APD) are widely separated and (to some) fundamentally incompatible tendencies within political science. In this paper, we...     

The ideological nationalization of partisan subconstituencies in the American States

Since the mid-twentieth century, elite political behavior in the United States has become much more nationalized. In Congress, for example, within-party geographic cleavages have declined, roll-call voting has become more one-dimensional, and Democrats and Republicans have diverged along this main dimension of national partisan conflict. The existing literature finds that citizens have only weakly and belatedly mimicked elite trends. We show, however, that a different picture emerges if we focus not on individual citizens, but on the aggregate characteristics of geographic constituencies. Using biennial estimates of the economic, racial, and social policy liberalism of the average Democrat and Republican in each state over the past six decades, we demonstrate a surprisingly close correspondence between mass and elite trends. Specifically, we find that: (1) ideological divergence between Democrats and Republicans has widened dramatically within each domain, just as it has in Congress; (2) ideological variation across senators’ partisan subconstituencies is now explained almost completely by party rather than state, closely tracking trends in the Senate; and (3) economic, racial, and social liberalism have become highly correlated across partisan subconstituencies, just as they have across members of Congress. Overall, our findings contradict the reigning consensus that polarization in Congress has proceeded much more rapidly and extensively than polarization in the mass public.     

Portion size matters: Carrion ecology lessons for medicolegal death investigations—A study in Cape Town,South Africa

Forensic taphonomic studies are regionally specific and improve time since death estimates for medico-legal casework. Within forensic taphonomy and carrion ecology, vertebrate scavengers are under-researched with many studies conducted using multiple, unclothed carcasses. This is a forensically unrealistic experimental design choice with unknown impact. The effect of variation in carrion biomass on the decomposition ecosystem, particularly where vertebrate scavengers are concerned, requires clarification. To assess the effect of carrion biomass load on vertebrate scavenging and decomposition rate, seasonal baseline data for single, clothed ~60 kg porcine carcasses were compared to clothed multiple-carcass deployments, in a forensically relevant habitat of Cape Town, South Africa. Decomposition was tracked via weight loss and bloat progression and scavenging activity via motion-activated cameras. The single carcasses decayed more quickly, particularly during the cooler, wetter winter, strongly correlated with concentrated Cape gray mongoose (Galerella pulverulenta) scavenging activity. On average and across seasons, the single carcasses lost 68% of their mass by day 32 (567 accumulated degree days [ADD]), compared to 80 days (1477 ADD) for multi-carcass deployments. The single carcasses experienced substantially more scavenging activity, with longer visits by single and multiple mongooses, totaling 53 h on average compared to 20 h for the multi-carcass deployments. These differences in scavenging activity and decay rate demonstrate the impact of carrion biomass load on decomposition for forensic taphonomy research. These findings need corroboration. However, forensic realism requires consideration in taphonomic study design. Longitudinally examining many single carcasses may produce more forensically accurate, locally appropriate, and usable results.     

The Dynamics of State Policy Liberalism, 1936–2014

Applying a dynamic latent‐variable model to data on 148 policies collected over eight decades (1936–2014), we produce the first yearly measure of the policy liberalism of U.S. states. Our dynamic measure of state policy liberalism marks an important advance over existing measures, almost all of which are purely cross‐sectional and thus cannot be used to study policy change. We find that, in the aggregate, the policy liberalism of U.S. states steadily increased between the 1930s and 1970s and then largely plateaued. The policy liberalism of most states has remained stable in relative terms, though several states have shifted considerably over time. We also find surprisingly little evidence of multidimensionality in state policy outputs. Our new estimates of state policy liberalism have broad application to the study of political development, representation, accountability, and other important issues in political science.     

Political Ideology,Public Policy and Human Development in India: Explaining the Gap Between Gujarat and Tamil Nadu

Abstract

Four decades ago the Indian states of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu had identical scores on the human development index. Both states have since experienced similar rates of economic growth and Gujarat has received more foreign investment, but Tamil Nadu has witnessed much stronger advances in human development. What explains this divergence? Through comparative historical, statistical and public policy analysis and interviews, we conclude that the implementation of government policies as a manifestation of political ideology and the quality of public administration have played a defining role in explaining Gujarat’s more lopsided and Tamil Nadu’s more balanced human development trajectories. Our findings suggest that a more egalitarian ideology and higher quality of public administration have been crucial to Tamil Nadu’s success in simultaneously improving human and economic development.     

Editors’ Introduction

Abstract

This article explains why the United States has not fought a preventive war against North Korea despite that country’s moves to arm itself with nuclear weapons. I argue that the absence of war is mainly attributable to military strategies that the US military has with regard to North Korea. With only attrition strategies available, the United States neither expects to lose a precious military opportunity nor anticipates grave future vulnerabilities vis-à-vis North Korea. The prospect of a costly attritional campaign deters both Washington and Pyongyang from resorting to military force. Straightforward attrition strategies also allow little chance for miscalculation, thereby making inadvertent escalation to war unlikely. The research finds sufficient evidence for my argument, whereas conventional explanations offered by international relations theory fall short when applied to this case.     

A review of experimental design in forensic taphonomy: moving towards forensic realism

Forensic taphonomy as a discipline requires standardization to satisfy Daubert criteria for scientific data to be admissible in court. In response, there has been a shift towards quantification of methodology and estimating the postmortem interval. Despite these advances, there are still biases and limitations within the discipline not explicitly addressed in the early stages of experimental design nor in final published works. In this article, unresolved debates with respect to the conductance and reporting of forensic taphonomic research are reviewed, beginning with the nature of experimental cadavers, human or animal analogues and their body size, and second, the forensic realism of experimental setups, specifically with respect to caging, clothing and number of carcases. Pigs, albeit imperfect, are a good model to gain a general idea of the trends that may be seen in humans in subsequent validation studies in facilities where human donors are available. To date, there is no consensus among taphonomists on the extent of the effect that body mass has on decomposition progression. More research is required with both human cadavers and non-human analogues that builds on our current knowledge of forensic taphonomy to answer these nagging questions. This will enable the discipline to make the reliable assumption that pigs and donor decomposition data can be applied to homicide cases. A suite of experimental design aspects is suggested to ensure systematic and standardized data collection across different biogeoclimatic circumstances to identify and quantify the effects of potential confounding variables. Such studies in multiple, varied biogeographic circumstances with standardized protocols, equipment and carrion will facilitate independent global validation of patterns. These factors are reviewed to show the need for adjustments in experimental design to ensure relevance and applicability of data within locally realistic forensic situations. The initiation of a global decomposition data network for forensic taphonomists is recommended.

Key points

• Pigs are a valuable, albeit imperfect, proxy for human decomposition studies.
• There are few or conflicting data on effects of carcase size, carrion ecology, exclusion cages and scavengers.
• We recommend single, clothed, uncaged carcases for baseline research to reflect regionally specific forensic casework.

     

Examining the Protective Effect of Ethnic Identity on Drug Attitudes and Use Among a Diverse Youth Population

Ethnic identity is an important buffer against drug use among minority youth. However, limited work has examined pathways through which ethnic identity mitigates risk. School-aged youth (N?=?34,708; 52?% female) of diverse backgrounds (i.e., African American (n?=?5333), Asian (n?=?392), Hispanic (n?=?662), Multiracial (n?=?2129), Native American (n?=?474), and White (n?=?25718) in grades 4–12 provided data on ethnic identity, drug attitudes, and drug use. After controlling for gender and grade, higher ethnic identity was associated with lower past month drug use for African American, Hispanic, and Multiracial youth. Conversely, high ethnic identity was associated with increased risk for White youth. An indirect pathway between ethnic identity, drug attitudes, and drug use was also found for African American, Hispanic, and Asian youth. Among White youth the path model was also significant, but in the opposite direction. These findings confirm the importance of ethnic identity for most minority youth. Further research is needed to better understand the association between ethnic identity and drug use for Multiracial and Hispanic youth, best ways to facilitate healthy ethnic identity development for minority youth, and how to moderate the risk of identity development for White youth.