Campaign resources and electoral success: Evidence from the 2002 French parliamentary elections

We examine the factors that improve the candidates’ likelihood of winning an election by drawing on information from campaign resources used by candidates running in the 2002 French parliamentary election. The main effects that we wish to analyze are the candidates’ gender, political affiliation and possible incumbency. We find that the contributions the candidates received and their political affiliations determine their acceding to the second round of the elections. But surprisingly once they make it to the second round, the contributions cease to be relevant; only the candidates’ gender, incumbency and the actual spending rather than the contribution levels matter.     

Understanding the development of fundamentalism

We use economic theory to examine the intensity of fundamentalist sects in which leaders work to enhance their followers’ observance level. We model three stylized situations under which fundamentalist groups function, examining the intensity of observance in each. We find that, under reasonable conditions, rivalry among fundamentalists makes them more extreme.     

Family contexts of pubertal timing

This study examined the influence of pubertal timing upon family interactions in normal and psychiatric adolescent samples. An important feature of our approach is its emphasis upon micro-analysis of family behaviors (individual speeches) and family processes (theoretically specified speech pairings). Rather than assume that global family patterns (e.g., power) shift in response to pubertal changes, we follow how types of speeches and speech sequences are associated with different pubertal timing. Using the previously constructed family coding system, the Constrainig and Enabling Coding System, we found that on-time adolescents and their parents differed from both off-time groups (early or late). These results are discussed in terms of current implications and suggestions for future research.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the SRCD Study Group on Timing of Maturation, October, 1983, at the Education Testing Service, Princeton, NJ. This research was supported by NICHD Grant 1 R01 HD18684-01, and an NIMH Research Scientist Award (Dr. Hauser).Received his Ph.D. from Harvard University. Research interest is adolescent development within the family and impact of chronic illness on adolescent development and family interaction.Received her B.A. from Wellesley College. Research interests are in humor and attractiveness.Received his M.A. from Boston University. Research interests are in methodology and statistics.Received Ed.D. from Harvard University. Research interests are in adolescent development within the family, and family coping with stress.Received M.D. from University of Chicago. Research interests are in psychosocial aspects of diabetes.Received Ed.D. from Harvard University. Research interests are in developmental psychopathology, and moral and ego development.Received Ph.D. from Ohio State University. Research interests are in assessment of ego development and family systems.Received Ph.D. from University of Miami. Research interests are in family studies and adolescent development.     

Lobbying and compromise

The compromise enhancing effect of lobbying on public policy has been established in two typical settings. In the first, lobbies are assumed to act as “principals” and the setters of the policy (the candidates in a Downsian electoral competition or the elected policy maker in a citizen-candidate model of electoral competition) are conceived as “agents”. In the second setting, the proposed policies are solely determined by the lobbies who are assumed to take the dual role of “principals” in one stage of the public-policy game and ‘agents’ in its second stage. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate that in the latter setting, the compromising effect of lobbying need not exist. Our reduced-form, two-stage public-policy contest, where two interest groups compete on the approval or rejection of the policy set by a politician, is sufficient to show that the proposed and possibly implemented policy can be more extreme and less efficient than the preferred policies of the interest groups. In such situations then more than the calf (interest groups) wish to suck the cow (politician) desires to suckle thereby threatening the public well being more than the lobbying interest groups. The main result specifies the conditions that give rise to such a situation under both the perfectly and imperfectly discriminating contests.     

Allele frequencies data and statistic parameters for 16 STR loci-D19S433, D2S1338, CSF1PO, D16S539, D7S820, D21S11, D18S51, D13S317, D5S818, FGA, Penta E, TH01, vWA, D8S1179, TPOX, D3S1358-in the Rio de Janeiro population, Brazil

Allele frequencies for 16 short tandem repeats (STR) loci were determined with a sample of 230-300 unrelated individuals from the population of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The loci are the most commonly used in forensic and paternity testing, being analysed by the Identifiler (Applied Biosystems) and PowerPlex 2.1 (Promega) commercial kits. It was proved that Penta E and D18S51 are the most polymorphic loci.