美国与东亚大国的关系--东南亚的视角

本文评述了美国与东亚大国———中国、日本、俄罗斯、印度及东盟的关系,以及这些关系对东亚的影响,并着重分析了中国与东亚大国的关系。作者认为,中美关系肯定是未来东亚地区最重要的战略关系。中国的崛起促使创立东亚地区机制成为必要。多边合作是解决和克服双边低效的最直接的战略,因此,创立东亚共同体的想法具有很重要的意义。     

Towards an Asian security-community

The title of this paper indicates that the subject matter involves a process. It is a gradual process, step by step , since there are still many constraints: the complete normalization between China and Japan; the acceptance of the US, openly or tacit; and ASEAN's credibility, which will depend on the efforts to build the ASEAN Community. The process probably involves more than only East Asia in the geographical sense, because it would be sensible to include India, Australia and New Zealand as well. An Asian Security Community appears premature. But an extended East Asian community, which has a security component, could be a possibility. How this will unfold further will depend on how successful this regional process will be. East Asia cannot emulate the EU because it is a more diverse region than Europe, but East Asia can learn from the EU.     

The indonesian general elections 2004

The year 2004 is crucial for Indonesia's democracy. It has held a series of elections, ending on September 20 with the final round of the presidential elections.

The first election on April 5 was to elect members of Parliament (DPR), the Council of Regional Representatives (DPD) and the provincial as well as county level legislatures. Around 600 million ballots were cast that day by about 120 million voters.

The election was seen by the public and the international community as democratic, fair and peaceful. This was also the case with the first and second rounds of the presidential elections on July 5 and September 20.

They have helped to move Indonesia's democracy several notches higher and the Indonesian people should be congratulated for the process and the implementation. It showed a kind of maturity that augurs well for the future.

Encouragingly, it has been a democratic process, where Indonesians are exerting their political right to make their choice without being influenced or feeling pressured by their social and political groupings.

The voters showed their displeasure with PDI-P whose votes declined from 34% in 1999 to 19% in 2004. Recent experience also showed that personal popularity is an important factor in the election of the president. In addition, despite being the biggest Muslim country, the Muslim parties that are proponents of the Sharia got only 23% of the votes. Two out of the five presidential candidates representing Muslim organizations were eliminated after the first round.

The final round on September 20 was a competition between SBY (Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono), who was the most popular candidate, and Megawati, the incumbent. She has slightly improved her image and was able to build a coalition among the three biggest parties in parliament. The competition was thought to be a close one, but in the end it showed that popularity was the more decisive factor.     

The Japan‐US alliance and the Asia‐Pacific region

For the past fifty years the Japan‐US alliance has provided the framework for Asia‐Pacific security, says Jusuf Wanandi, Chairman of the Centre for Strategic International Studies in Indonesia and former research fellow at IIPS. The region's political and economic dynamics are changing, Wanandi says, and the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) supports an increased Japanese security role, with regional organizations acting as a conduit. But before Japan will win the confidence of some Asian neighbors, he says, Japan must open its economy, reform its domestic politics, and come to terms with its militaristic past.     

中国与东盟:加强未来关系

2009年10月17～18日,由中国社会科学院国际研究学部、广西社会科学院、东盟智库网络、广西国际博览事务局共同主办的第二届“中国-东盟智库战略对话2009”在广西南宁举行。会议主题是“全球环境变化中的中国与东南亚”,来自文莱、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚、老挝、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国、越南、中国、美国、韩国等国家的100多位专家学者在论坛上展开对话,专家学者就中国与东盟关系和东亚地区合作等问题进行深入探讨,形成了许多具有战略性的意见和建议。现将论坛部分专家的论文和会议报告刊登,以飨读者。     

建立东亚投资机制:东盟的角色

当今世界,经济全球化进一步发展,区域经济合作成为一种新的潮流。始于10年前亚洲金融危机爆发后的东亚地区合作到目前已经取得了前所未有的进展,同时也到了一个关键的十字路口。作为东亚合作重要组成部分和基石的投资合作,无疑对优化区内的资源配置、全面提升区内的经贸合作水平具有极其重要的意义;东亚一体化的深入发展也呼唤着区内更进一步的投资合作。如何对东亚在这一领域中的合作现状进行评估,并提出进一步推动东亚投资合作的对策与建议,促使东亚各国进一步加大对该领域合作的参与和投入力度,从而进一步推动东亚经济一体化,把握住东亚合作的历史机遇、开创东亚合作的未来,成为了摆在我们面临的一个紧迫课题。本期我们将特别关注已于2007年7月14-15日在北京成功召开的东亚思想库网络(NEAT)投资合作工作组会议暨第三届东亚投资论坛。现将在此次会议上的几篇重要讲话全文刊登如下,以飨读者。     

Islam in Indonesia: Its History,Development and Future Challenges

In Indonesian history, Islamic groups have always played an important political role. Jusuf Wanandi, co-founder of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Jakarta, states that most of these groups are moderate, tolerant and democratic. In the past few years, however, radical and extreme groups of Muslims have emerged and to some degree have set the agenda in the country with their extreme political interpretation of Islam. The depth of political and economic crises, and the weakness of the national government to resolve the crises have complicated the positive development of Islam in Indonesia. This is the biggest challenge facing young Muslim leaders. If they should succeed, which is quite likely, Indonesia's Islam could become the model for political Islam around the world. Wanandi concludes that this will be Indonesia's biggest contribution against global terrorism.     

以东亚机制建设推进东亚金融合作

2007年4月7日-8日,由外交学院和上海社会科学院主办的东亚思想库网络第三届东亚金融合作会议在上海召开。本次会议是在东亚金融危机爆发10周年这样特殊的背景下召开的,一些东亚金融界与政界要人应邀与会并作主旨发言。虽然与会人士都为当前东亚经济活力的恢复与东亚金融合作所取得的成绩感到高兴,但同时对当前全球经济失衡下东亚经济金融所面临的新形势表示担忧,进一步全面推进和强化东亚金融合作就显得尤为紧迫与必要。流动性过剩、美元化、外汇储备风险、汇率稳定和私人资本流动等成为描述当前东亚经济金融形势的关键词;推进现有合作机制,加强区内银行、证券、保险等业务合作,实现官方合作与民间合作良性互动,寻求本地区货币汇率的稳定,推动本地区金融市场发展,让本地区资金留在本地区,则成为与会代表的共同心声。为了让更多的人分享专家们的精彩发言和深刻思想,特将发言整理发表。     

The Indonesian crisis and beyond

The crisis in Indonesia is first and foremost a political crisis that has been exposed and complicated by the financial crisis, says Jusuf Wanandi, Chairman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta. The riots of 14 and 15 May 1998 forced President Soeharto to transfer power to his vice‐president, B. J. Habibie. However, because Habibie lacks credibility and legitimacy as a leader, he has been considered from the outset a transition figure. There is great hope that the general elections in June 1999 will solve the questions about the legitimacy of the government, and restore stability, security, and economic development throughout Indonesia, but there are still many obstacles to overcome if the elections are to be held on schedule. Furthermore, if the election results are not deemed fair, a political upheaval will likely occur. Indonesia, Wanandi says, cannot afford any further mistakes.