Front‐Door Difference‐in‐Differences Estimators

We develop front‐door difference‐in‐differences estimators as an extension of front‐door estimators. Under one‐sided noncompliance, an exclusion restriction, and assumptions analogous to parallel trends assumptions, this extension allows identification when the front‐door criterion does not hold. Even if the assumptions are relaxed, we show that the front‐door and front‐door difference‐in‐differences estimators may be combined to form bounds. Finally, we show that under one‐sided noncompliance, these techniques do not require the use of control units. We illustrate these points with an application to a job training study and with an application to Florida's early in‐person voting program. For the job training study, we show that these techniques can recover an experimental benchmark. For the Florida program, we find some evidence that early in‐person voting had small positive effects on turnout in 2008. This provides a counterpoint to recent claims that early voting had a negative effect on turnout in 2008.     

The emergence of regional economies in China and its implications,with special reference to Hong Kong and Guangdong

  China's continental physical expanse has been a dominant, shaping influence of its political, social and economic development throughout its modern history. Thanks to its relative ethnic homogeneity, as well as the absence of political reform, it has – unlike the former Soviet Union – preserved its unity as a state. Nevertheless, regionalism remains a powerful counterpoint to centralisation in China. In particular, under the impact of post-1978 economic reforms, differentials and tensions between provinces and regions have emerged as a potent force, threatening the authority and power of Beijing. This article begins by seeking to explore some of the regional forms in which economic change has manifested itself during the last two decades. It highlights the unique problems faced by an economy that is still in transition in a country as large as China. Brief consideration is also given to the wider regional context in which China is sometimes placed as the central player – namely, that of `Greater China'. At the heart of the article is a case study that examines the evolution of a particular kind of regionalism, captured in the economic integration – even symbiosis - between Hong Kong and Guangdong. The question is addressed whether the form of regionalism contained within the forging of an ever-closer economic relationship between these two areas of South China can be a model for the integration of other regions both within and across China's national boundaries. Hong Kong's transformation from a tiny, dependent, colonial enclave into one of the most successful economies in the world is one of the most remarkable stories of post-World War II economic history. During the 1960s and 1970s, Hong Kong's growth record was unmatched anywhere else in the world. But by the beginning of the 1980s, high land rents and spiralling wages started to erode the international competitiveness that had been the basis of Hong Kong's previous economic success. By a happy coincidence, however, the emergence of such pressures coincided with the opening of China to the outside world. China's `open door' policy thereby made available to Hong Kong entrepreneurs a huge, hitherto untapped reservoir of cheap labour and gave them access to inexpensive factory sites just across the border in Guangdong. It was a lifeline to which they responded eagerly and, through the relocation of their factories, provided the means whereby Hong Kong manufacturers discovered a new lease of life. The benefits associated with this process accrued not only to Hong Kong through the regeneration of its manufacturing industry. Rather, it was a two-way process that also facilitated economic growth, structural transformation and improvements in living standards in Guangdong (above all, in the Pearl River Delta). In short, the process became the basis of deepening integration between the economies of the two regions. Indeed, it was the key element in the emergence of a new regional economic grouping, known as `Greater China' – an informal triangular partnership between Hong Kong, Taiwan and two southern Chinese provinces (Guangdong and Fujian). The emergence of `Greater China' can be regarded as a particular manifestation of the coastal bias that has so strongly characterised China's economic trajectory under reform. To this day, the triangular economic nexus between Hong Kong, Taiwan and South China remains an important dimension of China's external economic relations, even if developments in other coastal provinces have caused it to weaken. To what extent recent and future developments have challenged and will continue to challenge the regionalism inherent in the original notion of Greater China is something that deserves close attention. Not least, the strategic initiative of opening up China's western regions poses interesting and important questions that touch on future developments of `trans-nationalism' and `trans-regionalism' affecting China.     

A game-theoretic model for protest in the context of post-communism

In recent years, large-scale protests have forced several incumbent governments in former Soviet countries from power. Scholarly examinations of these events have lacked a cohesive explanation of the reasons for the success of certain movements and the failure of others. This study uses prior research on the dynamics of protest to formulate a game-theoretic model for why protest takes place and how its eventual outcome comes about. The model is tested through logistic regression analyses of monthly protest data. The statistical analysis shows that elections, prior protests and government transgressions increase the likelihood of anti-government protests.     

Relitigation after contested custody and visitation evaluations

Relitigation of custody, visitation, and child support during a two-year period was used as a measure of postdivorce adjustment. A sample of highly adversarial families (n = 58) referred for a court-ordered psychiatric evaluation as part of a contested divorce custody or visitation action was compared to control samples of mother custody (n = 43), father custody (n = 30), and joint custody (n = 54) families in which custody was not contested. Nineteen percent of adversarial families evaluated predivorce relitigated custody, a significantly higher rate than control families. Mother custody cases had a higher rate of relitigation over child support than did father or joint custody arrangements. Joint custody controls had approximately the same rate of relitigation of custody as did father custody and mother custody controls. A sample of families referred for evaluation of a postdivorce custody or visitation dispute (n = 46) had a higher rate of relitigation of problems regarding visitation than did a control sample of postdivorce families (n = 36). Possible explanations for these findings are discussed.